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Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

Stott, Peter A., Stone, D. A., Allen, M. R.·2004·Nature

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Abstract

The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate--for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere--because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave. Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.

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Authors: Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R.
Affiliations: Met Office (GB)
University of Oxford (GB)
Corresponding author: Stott, Peter A.
ORCID: Stott, Peter A.
Stone, D. A.
Allen, M. R.
Venue: Nature
Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Published: 2004-12-02
Volume: 432
Issue: 7017
Pages: 610-614
ISSN: 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/nature03089
OpenAlex: W2044387082
Cited by: 1,735
References: 27
Citations by year: 2026: 66 · 2025: 96 · 2024: 105 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 88 · 2020: 128 · 2019: 89 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 95 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 67 · 2013: 64 · 2012: 82
FWCI: 56.77
Type: journal article
Language: en
Update notices: erratum (2005-08-25)
Open access: closed
Licence: www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
www.springer.com/tdm (vor)
Locations: Nature (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders: Natural Environment Research Council (NER/T/S/2001/00968, NER/A/S/2002/00881)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Keywords: 2003 European heatwave, anthropogenic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, heat-related mortality, summer temperature extremes, air pollutants
MeSH terms: Air Pollution, Atmosphere, Europe, Hot Temperature, Humans, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Mortality, Risk, Seasons, Time Factors, Weather, Likelihood Functions, Greenhouse Effect

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