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Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003
Abstract
The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest ad 1500, and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy. It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate--for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere--because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave. Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level >90%) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold magnitude.
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“Globally, the heat wave in Europe in 2003 caused 14,802 deaths in France alone and the heat waves in the future were estimated to occur at least twice as frequently as the 2003 European heat waves [50].”
From Assessing Heat Stress and Health among Construction Workers in a Changing Climate: A Review (2018) · cites this paper as [50]
In the citing paper
“we do know that because of climate change, extreme weather is more generally on the rise, making extreme weather events more frequent, intense, and complex.”
From Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions (2018) · cites this paper as [46]
In the citing paper
“while we cannot say with certainty that any one specific extreme weather event is directly caused by climate change”
From Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions (2018) · cites this paper as [46]
In the citing paper
“There is now an increasingly strong body of literature which highlights the causal linkages between climate change and extreme weather events (see [45–50]).”
From Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions (2018) · cites this paper as [46]
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Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R.
- Affiliations
- Met Office (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Stott, Peter A.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2004-12-02
- Volume
- 432
- Issue
- 7017
- Pages
- 610-614
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2044387082
- Cited by
- 1,735
- References
- 27
- Citations by year
- 2026: 66 · 2025: 96 · 2024: 105 · 2023: 115 · 2022: 115 · 2021: 88 · 2020: 128 · 2019: 89 · 2018: 73 · 2017: 95 · 2016: 79 · 2015: 74 · 2014: 67 · 2013: 64 · 2012: 82
- FWCI
- 56.77
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- erratum (2005-08-25)
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NER/T/S/2001/00968, NER/A/S/2002/00881)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Environmental Impact
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Keywords
- 2003 European heatwave, anthropogenic climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, heat-related mortality, summer temperature extremes, air pollutants
- MeSH terms
- Air Pollution, Atmosphere, Europe, Hot Temperature, Humans, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Mortality, Risk, Seasons, Time Factors, Weather, Likelihood Functions, Greenhouse Effect
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