Global phytoplankton decline over the past century
Abstract
In the oceans, ubiquitous microscopic phototrophs (phytoplankton) account for approximately half the production of organic matter on Earth. Analyses of satellite-derived phytoplankton concentration (available since 1979) have suggested decadal-scale fluctuations linked to climate forcing, but the length of this record is insufficient to resolve longer-term trends. Here we combine available ocean transparency measurements and in situ chlorophyll observations to estimate the time dependence of phytoplankton biomass at local, regional and global scales since 1899. We observe declines in eight out of ten ocean regions, and estimate a global rate of decline of approximately 1% of the global median per year. Our analyses further reveal interannual to decadal phytoplankton fluctuations superimposed on long-term trends. These fluctuations are strongly correlated with basin-scale climate indices, whereas long-term declining trends are related to increasing sea surface temperatures. We conclude that global phytoplankton concentration has declined over the past century; this decline will need to be considered in future studies of marine ecosystems, geochemical cycling, ocean circulation and fisheries.
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The global upper ocean has warmed during recent decades, and this warming is accompanied by a decrease in chlorophyll-a and productivity.
“The global upper ocean has been warming during the last decades accompanied with a chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and productivity decrease.”
From Recent Trends in SST, Chl‐<i>a</i>, Productivity and Wind Stress in Upwelling and Open Ocean Areas in the Upper Eastern North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (2021) · cites this paper as Boyce et al., 2010
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- Authors
- Boyce, D. G., Lewis, M. R., & Worm, B.
- Affiliations
- Dalhousie University (CA)
- Corresponding author
- Boyce, Daniel G.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2010-07
- Volume
- 466
- Issue
- 7306
- Pages
- 591-596
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W1999250331
- Cited by
- 1,363
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 63 · 2025: 97 · 2024: 97 · 2023: 96 · 2022: 94 · 2021: 116 · 2020: 69 · 2019: 82 · 2018: 71 · 2017: 85 · 2016: 68 · 2015: 92 · 2014: 81 · 2013: 77 · 2012: 74
- FWCI
- 58.36
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Environmental Chemistry › Aquatic Ecosystems and Phytoplankton Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- phytoplankton decline, phytoplankton biomass, long-term trends, ocean warming, sea surface temperature, climate indices, decadal variability, Secchi disk, chlorophyll, satellite remote sensing, marine biogeochemical cycles, ocean primary productivity
- MeSH terms
- Chlorophyll, Climate, Marine Biology, Oceans and Seas, Phytoplankton, Population Density, Seawater, Time Factors, Ecosystem, Biomass, History, 19th Century, History, 20th Century, Global Warming
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