Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink
Open accessAbstract
Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.
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Observations from across the Amazon suggest that CO2-driven accelerations of tree growth may have contributed to increasing tree mortality rates, which could eventually neutralize the forest carbon sink in the coming decades.
“However, observations from across the Amazon46 suggest that CO2-driven accelerations of tree growth may have contributed to increasing tree mortality rates (trees grow faster but also die earlier), which could eventually neutralize the forest carbon sink in the coming decades55.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [46]
The paper reports Amazon-wide increases in productivity and mortality (p. 4) and suggests that faster growth may shorten tree lifespans and contribute to mortality (p. 5). But it says the factors driving the observed changes remain unclear (p. 5), so it does not establish that CO2 drove the growth acceleration. The sentence separately cites source 55 for the possibility that the sink could be neutralized in coming decades. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredForests across the Amazon are already responding with increasing tree mortality rates that are not simulated by CMIP6 models.
“Forests across the Amazon are already responding with increasing tree mortality rates that are not simulated by these models46, possibly because of compounding disturbance regimes (Fig. 1).”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [46]
The Results (p. 4) report a long-term increase in tree mortality across the studied tropical South American forests. The discussion (p. 5) says demographic feedbacks are not explicitly included in dynamic global vegetation models, but it does not establish that CMIP6 models fail to simulate the observed mortality increase. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredField evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage, while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species.
“For instance, field evidence from long-term monitoring sites across the Amazon shows that tree mortality rates are increasing in most sites, reducing carbon storage46, while favouring the replacement by drought-affiliated species47.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [46]
The main text (p. 4) reports increasing mortality across the monitoring network and a resulting decline in the rate of biomass gain. It does not establish that mortality increased in most individual sites, and it says forests remained a biomass sink rather than losing biomass overall. The drought-affiliated species clause is attached to a different citation, so it is not assessed here. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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- Authors
- Brienen, R. J. W., Phillips, O. L., Feldpausch, T. R., Gloor, E., Baker, T. R., Lloyd, J., Lopez-Gonzalez, G., Monteagudo-Mendoza, A., Malhi, Y., Lewis, S. L., Vásquez Martinez, R., Alexiades, M., Álvarez Dávila, E., Alvarez-Loayza, P., Andrade, A., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Araujo-Murakami, A., Arets, E. J. M. M., Arroyo, L., Aymard C., G. A., Bánki, O. S., Baraloto, C., Barroso, J., Bonal, D., Boot, R. G. A., Camargo, J. L. C., Castilho, C. V., Chama, V., Chao, K. J., Chave, J., Comiskey, J. A., Cornejo Valverde, F., da Costa, L., de Oliveira, E. A., Di Fiore, A., Erwin, T. L., Fauset, S., Forsthofer, M., Galbraith, D. R., Grahame, E. S., Groot, N., Hérault, B., Higuchi, N., Honorio Coronado, E. N., Keeling, H., Killeen, T. J., Laurance, W. F., Laurance, S., Licona, J., Magnussen, W. E., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Mendoza, C., Neill, D. A., Nogueira, E. M., Núñez, P., Pallqui Camacho, N. C., Parada, A., Pardo-Molina, G., Peacock, J., Peña-Claros, M., Pickavance, G. C., Pitman, N. C. A., Poorter, L., Prieto, A., Quesada, C. A., Ramírez, F., Ramírez-Angulo, H., Restrepo, Z., Roopsind, A., Rudas, A., Salomão, R. P., Schwarz, M., Silva, N., Silva-Espejo, J. E., Silveira, M., Stropp, J., Talbot, J., ter Steege, H., Teran-Aguilar, J., Terborgh, J., Thomas-Caesar, R., Toledo, M., Torello-Raventos, M., Umetsu, R. K., van der Heijden, G. M. F., van der Hout, P., Guimarães Vieira, I. C., Vieira, S. A., Vilanova, E., Vos, V. A., & Zagt, R. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Kent (GB)
- Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (BR)
- University of Exeter (GB)
- Wageningen University & Research (NL)
- Gabriel René Moreno Autonomous University (BO)
- University of Amsterdam (NL)
- Florida International University (US)
- Universidade Federal do Acre (BR)
- Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement (FR)
- Embrapa Roraima (BR)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- National Park Service (US)
- Smithsonian Institution (US)
- Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso (BR)
- Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane (GF)
- World Wildlife Fund (US)
- James Cook University (AU)
- Bolivian Forest Research Institute (BO)
- Universidad Mayor de San Simón (BO)
- Universidad Estatal Amazónica (EC)
- National University of Saint Anthony the Abbot in Cuzco (PE)
- Duke University (US)
- Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana (PE)
- Universidad de Los Andes (VE)
- Fundación Jardín Botánico “Joaquín Antonio Uribe” de Medellín (CO)
- Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development (GY)
- Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (BR)
- Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia (BR)
- European Commission (BE)
- Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado (BO)
- Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
- Universidad Autónoma del Beni (BO)
- Tropenbos International (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Brienen, R. J. W.
- ORCID
- Brienen, R. J. W.
- Phillips, O. L.
- Feldpausch, T. R.
- Gloor, E.
- Baker, T. R.
- Lloyd, J.
- Malhi, Y.
- Lewis, S. L.
- Alexiades, M.
- Andrade, A.
- Aragão, L. E. O. C.
- Arets, E. J. M. M.
- Bánki, O. S.
- Baraloto, C.
- Barroso, J.
- Bonal, D.
- Boot, R. G. A.
- Camargo, J. L. C.
- Chao, K. J.
- Chave, J.
- Fauset, S.
- Galbraith, D. R.
- Groot, N.
- Hérault, B.
- Laurance, W. F.
- Laurance, S.
- Marimon, B. S.
- Marimon-Junior, B. H.
- Neill, D. A.
- Nogueira, E. M.
- Pickavance, G. C.
- Pitman, N. C. A.
- Poorter, L.
- Ramírez, F.
- Restrepo, Z.
- Salomão, R. P.
- Silva, N.
- Silveira, M.
- Stropp, J.
- Talbot, J.
- Umetsu, R. K.
- Vieira, S. A.
- Vilanova, E.
- Vos, V. A.
- Zagt, R. J.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2015-03
- Volume
- 519
- Issue
- 7543
- Pages
- 344-348
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2048605790
- Cited by
- 1,211
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 95 · 2025: 102 · 2024: 108 · 2023: 124 · 2022: 146 · 2021: 143 · 2020: 122 · 2019: 81 · 2018: 108 · 2017: 72 · 2016: 69 · 2015: 39 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 89.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- research.wur.nl
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- Socio-Environmental Systems Modeling (acceptedVersion)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- ResearchOnline at James Cook University (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- Repository@Nottingham (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Agritrop (Cirad) (submittedVersion)
- Nottingham ePrints (University of Nottingham) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- UCL Discovery (University College London) (submittedVersion)
- Figshare (submittedVersion)
- Northumbria Research Link (Northumbria University) (submittedVersion)
- Open Research Exeter (University of Exeter) (submittedVersion)
- Data Archiving and Networked Services (DANS) (submittedVersion)
- Greater South Information System
- Funders
- Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
- Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR-10-LABX-0041, ANR-10-LABX-0025)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/B503384/1, NE/I021160/1, NE/I02982X/1, NER/A/S/2003/00609, NE/M022021/1, NE/D01025X/1, NE/B504630/1, NE/D010306/1, NE/D005590/1, NE/I028122/1, NE/F005776/1, NE/F005806/1, NE/F005806/)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Soil Science › Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics
- Keywords
- Amazon rainforest, aboveground biomass, carbon accumulation, biomass growth rate, tree mortality, carbon residence time, long-term forest monitoring, climate variability, tree longevity, tropical carbon cycle, climate change
- MeSH terms
- Atmosphere, Brazil, Carbon, Carbon Dioxide, Trees, Tropical Climate, Wood, Biomass, Plant Stems, Carbon Sequestration, Rainforest
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