The DOI matches its Crossref record; 12 of the 12 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Projecting the performance of risk prediction based on polygenic analyses of genome-wide association studies
Open accessAbstract
We report a new method to estimate the predictive performance of polygenic models for risk prediction and assess predictive performance for ten complex traits or common diseases. Using estimates of effect-size distribution and heritability derived from current studies, we project that although 45% of the variance of height has been attributed to SNPs, a model trained on one million people may only explain 33.4% of variance of the trait. Models based on current studies allow for identification of 3.0%, 1.1% and 7.0% of the populations at twofold or higher than average risk for type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease and prostate cancer, respectively. Tripling of sample sizes could elevate these percentages to 18.8%, 6.1% and 12.2%, respectively. The utility of polygenic models for risk prediction will depend on achievable sample sizes for the training data set, the underlying genetic architecture and the inclusion of information on other risk factors, including family history.
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Cites
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Finding the missing heritability of complex diseases
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Cited by
Khera, A. V., Chaffin, M., Aragam, K. G., Haas, M. E., Roselli, C., Choi, S. H., Natarajan, P., Lander, E. S., Lubitz, S. A., Ellinor, P. T., et al. (2018) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41588-018-0183-z · Cited by 2,953
Integrative approaches for large-scale transcriptome-wide association studies
Gusev, A., Ko, A., Shi, H., Bhatia, G., Chung, W., Penninx, B. W. J. H., Jansen, R., de Geus, E. J. C., Boomsma, D. I., Wright, F. A., et al. (2016) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/ng.3506 · Cited by 2,479
The personal and clinical utility of polygenic risk scores
Torkamani, A., Wineinger, N. E., & Topol, E. J. (2018) · Nature Reviews Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41576-018-0018-x · Cited by 1,623
Modeling Linkage Disequilibrium Increases Accuracy of Polygenic Risk Scores
Vilhjálmsson, B. J., Yang, J., Finucane, H. K., Gusev, A., Lindström, S., Ripke, S., Genovese, G., Loh, P.-R., Bhatia, G., Do, R., et al. (2015) · The American Journal of Human Genetics · doi:10.1016/j.ajhg.2015.09.001 · Cited by 1,303
Self-citationPolygenic Prediction of Weight and Obesity Trajectories from Birth to Adulthood
Khera, A. V., Chaffin, M., Wade, K. H., Zahid, S., Brancale, J., Xia, R., Distefano, M., Senol-Cosar, O., Haas, M. E., Bick, A., et al. (2019) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2019.03.028 · Cited by 789
Metadata
- Authors
- Chatterjee, N., Wheeler, B., Sampson, J., Hartge, P., Chanock, S. J., & Park, J.-H.
- Venue
- Nature Genetics
- Published
- 2013-03-03
- Volume
- 45
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 400-405
- ISSN
- 1061-4036 (ISSN-L)
- 1546-1718
- OpenAlex
- W2097656361
- Cited by
- 362
- References
- 12
- FWCI
- 25.69
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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