Weight Status in Childhood as a Predictor of Becoming Overweight or Hypertensive in Early Adulthood**

Abstract

Objective: To assess the extent to which weight status in childhood or adolescence predicts becoming overweight or hypertensive by young adulthood. Research Methods and Procedures: We conducted a prospective study of 314 children, who were 8 to 15 years old at baseline, and were followed up 8 to 12 years later. Weight, height, and blood pressure were measured by trained research staff. Incident overweight was defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m 2 among participants who had not been overweight as children. Results: More male subjects (48.3%) than female subjects (23.5%) became overweight or obese between their first childhood visit and the young adult follow‐up (p < 0.001). Being in the upper one half of the normal weight range (i.e., BMI between the 50th and 84th percentiles for age and gender in childhood) was a good predictor of becoming overweight as a young adult. Compared with children with a BMI <50th percentile, girls and boys between the 50th and 74th percentiles of BMI were ∼5 times more likely [boys, odds ratio (OR) = 5.3, p = 0.002; girls, OR = 4.8, p = 0.07] and those with a BMI between the 75th and 84th percentiles were up to 20 times more likely (boys, OR = 4.3, p = 0.02; girls, OR = 20.2, p = 0.001) to become overweight. The incidence of high blood pressure was greater among the male subjects (12.3% vs. 1.9%). Compared with boys who had childhood BMI below the 75th percentile, boys between the 75th and 85th percentiles of BMI as children were four times more likely (OR = 3.6) and those at above the 85th percentile were five times more likely (OR = 5.1) to become hypertensive. Discussion: High normal weight status in childhood predicted becoming overweight or obese as an adult. Also, among the boys, elevated BMI in childhood predicted risk of hypertension in young adulthood.