The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
Open accessAbstract
Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.
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Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Coastal Flooding by Tropical Cyclones and Sea-Level Rise
Woodruff, J. D., Irish, J. L., & Camargo, S. J. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12855 · Cited by 819
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(2022) · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-30727-4 · Cited by 1,001
Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global
Gregory, J. M., Griffies, S. M., Hughes, C. W., Lowe, J. A., Church, J. A., Fukimori, I., Gomez, N., Kopp, R. E., Landerer, F., Cozannet, G. L., et al. (2019) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z · Cited by 532
Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985
Rentschler, J., Avner, P., Marconcini, M., Su, R., Strano, E., Vousdoukas, M., & Hallegatte, S. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06468-9 · Cited by 459
Self-citationMuis, S., Apecechea, M. I., Dullaart, J., de Lima Rego, J., Madsen, K. S., Su, J., Yan, K., & Verlaan, M. (2020) · Frontiers in Marine Science · doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.00263 · Cited by 404
Self-citationRobustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections
Morim, J., Hemer, M., Wang, X. L., Cartwright, N., Trenham, C., Semedo, A., Young, I., Bricheno, L., Camus, P., Casas-Prat, M., et al. (2019) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5 · Cited by 384
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Metadata
- Authors
- Vousdoukas, M. I., Mentaschi, L., Voukouvalas, E., Verlaan, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jackson, L. P., & Feyen, L.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2018-06-18
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 2360-2360
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W2808405493
- Cited by
- 775
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 55.38
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
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