The DOI matches its Crossref record; 41 of the 41 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global evidence of rapid urban growth in flood zones since 1985
Open accessAbstract
Analysis of high-resolution annual data shows that global human settlements have expanded continuously and rapidly into flood zones, with those in the most hazardous zones increasing by 122% from 1985 to 2015. Disaster losses are increasing and evidence is mounting that climate change is driving up the probability of extreme natural shocks^ 1 – 3 . Yet it has also proved politically expedient to invoke climate change as an exogenous force that supposedly places disasters beyond the influence of local and national authorities^ 4 , 5 . However, locally determined patterns of urbanization and spatial development are key factors to the exposure and vulnerability of people to climatic shocks^ 6 . Using high-resolution annual data, this study shows that, since 1985, human settlements around the world—from villages to megacities—have expanded continuously and rapidly into present-day flood zones. In many regions, growth in the most hazardous flood zones is outpacing growth in non-exposed zones by a large margin, particularly in East Asia, where high-hazard settlements have expanded 60% faster than flood-safe settlements. These results provide systematic evidence of a divergence in the exposure of countries to flood hazards. Instead of adapting their exposure, many countries continue to actively amplify their exposure to increasingly frequent climatic shocks.
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Cites
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Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods
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A High-Accuracy Map of Global Terrain Elevations
Yamazaki, D., Ikeshima, D., Tawatari, R., Yamaguchi, T., O'Loughlin, F., Neal, J. C., Sampson, C. C., Kanae, S., & Bates, P. D. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl072874 · Cited by 1,326
Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., et al. (2019) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6 · Cited by 1,318
Global drivers of future river flood risk
Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F. P., Bouwman, A., Jongman, B., Kwadijk, J. C. J., Ligtvoet, W., Lucas, P. L., van Vuuren, D. P., et al. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2893 · Cited by 1,151
The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale
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Cited by
Impacts of water depth on pedestrian speed, gait, and stability: results from an experimental study
Li, X., Song, W., Zhang, J., & Bode, N. W. F. (2026) · Acta Polytechnica CTU Proceedings · doi:10.14311/app.2026.57.0226 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Rentschler, J., Avner, P., Marconcini, M., Su, R., Strano, E., Vousdoukas, M., & Hallegatte, S.
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2023-10-04
- Volume
- 622
- Issue
- 7981
- Pages
- 87-92
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4387332415
- Cited by
- 459
- References
- 41
- FWCI
- 51.47
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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