Genomic patterns of progression in smoldering multiple myeloma
Open accessAbstract
We analyzed whole genomes of unique paired samples from smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) patients progressing to multiple myeloma (MM). We report that the genomic landscape, including mutational profile and structural rearrangements at the smoldering stage is very similar to MM. Paired sample analysis shows two different patterns of progression: a “static progression model”, where the subclonal architecture is retained as the disease progressed to MM suggesting that progression solely reflects the time needed to accumulate a sufficient disease burden; and a “spontaneous evolution model”, where a change in the subclonal composition is observed. We also observe that activation-induced cytidine deaminase plays a major role in shaping the mutational landscape of early subclinical phases, while progression is driven by APOBEC cytidine deaminases. These results provide a unique insight into myelomagenesis with potential implications for the definition of smoldering disease and timing of treatment initiation.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Virtually all documented HY cases exhibit clear germinal-center mutagenesis acquired before the duplication, which excludes a pre-germinal-center origin.
“Virtually all HY cases documented so far exhibit clear GC mutagenesis acquired before the duplication, which excludes a pre-GC origin.9,12,13,69”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [69]
The Results (The genomic landscape of smoldering myeloma; page unavailable) identify seven hyperdiploid cases, and the Discussion (page unavailable) reports an early AID mutational contribution in all studied samples, consistent with germinal-center activity. The paper does not establish that this mutagenesis preceded chromosome duplication in virtually all documented hyperdiploid cases or that it excludes a pre-germinal-center origin. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredRAS mutations, MYC translocations, APOBEC mutagenesis, and patterns of genomic complexity are the most commonly reported alterations in progressing multiple myeloma.
“Among these, RAS mutations, MYC translocations, APOBEC mutagenesis, and patterns of genomic complexity are the most commonly reported.8,9,11,69,76-83,84”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [69]
The Results (Progression to multiple myeloma; page not provided) report that MYC rearrangements generally increased in clonality at progression, and the mutational-signatures Results identify APOBEC activity. The Discussion describes genomic heterogeneity but names gain 1q, del13q, hyperdiploidy, and IGH translocations—not the claimed list—as the most common aberrations. The passages do not establish RAS mutations as part of that list or show that these four features are the most commonly reported alterations. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredHigh-risk features are underrepresented among high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) compared with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM).
“Specifically, it is peculiar that these high-risk features are underrepresented among high-risk SMM compared to newly diagnosed MM.9,11,69,76-79”
From Evolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective (2026) · cites this paper as [69]
The Results (The genomic landscape of smoldering myeloma; page unavailable) describe genomic features in 11 SMM cases, and the Discussion (page unavailable) says their cytogenetic, mutational, and rearrangement profiles are very similar to those described in MM. Neither passage compares the prevalence of high-risk features specifically in high-risk SMM with newly diagnosed MM; a broadly similar profile does not settle that narrower claim. (LLM, conf=0.72)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Signatures of mutational processes in human cancer
Initiative, A. P. C. G., Alexandrov, L. B., ICGC Breast Cancer Consortium, ICGC MMML-Seq Consortium, PedBrain, I., Nik-Zainal, S., Wedge, D. C., Aparicio, S. A. J. R., Behjati, S., Biankin, A. V., et al. (2013) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature12477 · Cited by 9,660 · see citing works
Self-citationLandscape of somatic mutations in 560 breast cancer whole-genome sequences
Nik-Zainal, S., Davies, H., Staaf, J., Ramakrishna, M., Glodzik, D., Zou, X., Martincorena, I., Alexandrov, L. B., Martin, S., Wedge, D. C., et al. (2016) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature17676 · Cited by 2,218 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Life History of 21 Breast Cancers
Nik-Zainal, S., Van Loo, P., Wedge, D. C., Alexandrov, L. B., Greenman, C. D., Lau, K. W., Raine, K., Jones, D., Marshall, J., Ramakrishna, M., et al. (2012) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2012.04.023 · Cited by 1,443 · see citing works
Self-citationHeterogeneity of genomic evolution and mutational profiles in multiple myeloma
Bolli, N., Avet-Loiseau, H., Wedge, D. C., Van Loo, P., Alexandrov, L. B., Martincorena, I., Dawson, K. J., Iorio, F., Nik-Zainal, S., Bignell, G. R., et al. (2014) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms3997 · Cited by 875 · see citing works
Self-citationWalker, B. A., Wardell, C. P., Murison, A., Boyle, E. M., Begum, D. B., Dahir, N. M., Proszek, P. Z., Melchor, L., Pawlyn, C., Kaiser, M. F., et al. (2015) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms7997 · Cited by 313 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 37
- [1]Corre J Munshi N Avet-Loiseau H Genetics of multiple myeloma: another heterogeneity level? Blood 2015 125 1870 1876 10.1182/blood-2014-10-567370 25628468 PMC4366624 · DOI
- [2]Manier, S. et al. Genomic complexity of multiple myeloma and its clinical implications. Nat. Rev. Clin. Oncol.14, 100–113 (2017). 27531699
- [3]Morgan GJ Walker BA Davies FE The genetic architecture of multiple myeloma Nat. Rev. Cancer 2012 12 335 348 10.1038/nrc3257 22495321 · DOI · Paper page
- [4]Rajkumar S Smoldering multiple myeloma Blood 2015 125 3069 3075 10.1182/blood-2014-09-568899 25838344 PMC4432003 · DOI
- [5]Rajkumar SV International Myeloma Working Group updated criteria for the diagnosis of multiple myeloma Lancet Oncol. 2014 15 e538 e548 10.1016/S1470-2045(14)70442-5 25439696 · DOI · Paper page
- [6]Mateos MV Lenalidomide plus dexamethasone versus observation in patients with high-risk smouldering multiple myeloma (QuiRedex): long-term follow-up of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial Lancet Oncol. 2016 17 1127 1136 10.1016/S1470-2045(16)30124-3 27402145 · DOI
- [7]Dispenzieri A Immunoglobulin free light chain ratio is an independent risk factor for progression of smoldering (asymptomatic) multiple myeloma Blood 2008 111 785 789 10.1182/blood-2007-08-108357 17942755 PMC2200851 · DOI
- [8]Kyle RA Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) and smoldering (asymptomatic) multiple myeloma: IMWG consensus perspectives risk factors for progression and guidelines for monitoring and management Leukemia 2010 24 1121 1127 10.1038/leu.2010.60 20410922 PMC7020664 · DOI
- [9]Pérez-Persona E New criteria to identify risk of progression in monoclonal gammopathy of uncertain significance and smoldering multiple myeloma based on multiparameter flow cytometry analysis of bone marrow plasma cells Blood 2007 110 2586 2592 10.1182/blood-2007-05-088443 17576818 · DOI · Paper page
- [10]Landgren O Monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS) consistently precedes multiple myeloma: a prospective study Blood 2009 113 5412 5417 10.1182/blood-2008-12-194241 19179464 PMC2689042 · DOI · Paper page
- [12]Chapman MA Initial genome sequencing and analysis of multiple myeloma Nature 2011 471 467 472 10.1038/nature09837 21430775 PMC3560292 · DOI
- [13]Lohr JG Widespread genetic heterogeneity in multiple myeloma: implications for targeted therapy Cancer Cell 2014 25 91 101 10.1016/j.ccr.2013.12.015 24434212 PMC4241387 · DOI · Paper page
- [14]Walker BA Intraclonal heterogeneity and distinct molecular mechanisms characterize the development of t(4;14) and t(11;14) myeloma Blood 2012 120 1077 1086 10.1182/blood-2012-03-412981 22573403 · DOI
- [15]Bolli, N. et al. Analysis of the genomic landscape of multiple myeloma highlights novel prognostic markers and disease subgroups. Leukemia Preprint at 10.1038/leu.2017.344 (2018) PMC6092251 29789651 · DOI
- [16]Maura, F. et al. Biological and prognostic impact of APOBEC-induced mutations in the spectrum of plasma cell dyscrasias and multiple myeloma cell lines. Leukemia. 32, 1044-1048 (2018). PMC5886048 29209044
- [17]López-Corral L Genomic analysis of high-risk smoldering multiple myeloma Haematologica 2012 97 1439 1443 10.3324/haematol.2011.060780 22331267 PMC3436247 · DOI
- [18]Lopez-Corral L SNP-based mapping arrays reveal high genomic complexity in monoclonal gammopathies, from MGUS to myeloma status Leukemia 2012 26 2521 2529 10.1038/leu.2012.128 22565645 · DOI
- [19]Zhan F Gene-expression signature of benign monoclonal gammopathy evident in multiple myeloma is linked to good prognosis Blood 2007 109 1692 1700 10.1182/blood-2006-07-037077 17023574 PMC1794073 · DOI
- [20]Dhodapkar MV MGUS to myeloma: A mysterious gammopathy of underexplored significance Blood 2016 128 2599 2606 10.1182/blood-2016-09-692954 27737890 PMC5146746 · DOI
- [21]Zhao S Serial exome analysis of disease progression in premalignant gammopathies Leukemia 2014 28 1548 1552 10.1038/leu.2014.59 24496302 PMC4142199 · DOI
- [22]Walker BA Intraclonal heterogeneity is a critical early event in the development of myeloma and precedes the development of clinical symptoms Leukemia 2014 28 384 390 10.1038/leu.2013.199 23817176 PMC3916874 · DOI
- [24]Alexandrov LB Clock-like mutational processes in human somatic cells Nat. Genet 2015 47 1402 1407 10.1038/ng.3441 26551669 PMC4783858 · DOI
- [26]Roberts SA Clustered mutations in yeast and in human cancers can arise from damaged long single-strand DNA regions Mol. Cell 2012 46 424 435 10.1016/j.molcel.2012.03.030 22607975 PMC3361558 · DOI
- [27]Roberts SA An APOBEC cytidine deaminase mutagenesis pattern is widespread in human cancers Nat. Genet 2013 45 970 976 10.1038/ng.2702 23852170 PMC3789062 · DOI
- [28]Basso K Dalla-Favera R Germinal centres and B-cell lymphomagenesis Nat. Rev. Immunol. 2015 15 172 184 10.1038/nri3814 25712152 · DOI · Paper page
- [29]Kasar S Whole-genome sequencing reveals activation-induced cytidine deaminase signatures during indolent chronic lymphocytic leukaemia evolution Nat. Commun. 2015 6 8866 10.1038/ncomms9866 26638776 PMC4686820 · DOI
- [30]Puente XS Noncoding recurrent mutations in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia Nature 2015 526 519 524 10.1038/nature14666 26200345 · DOI
- [31]Walker BA Mutational spectrum, copy number changes, and outcome: results of a sequencing study of patients with newly diagnosed myeloma J. Clin. Oncol. 2015 33 3911 3920 10.1200/JCO.2014.59.1503 26282654 PMC6485456 · DOI · Paper page
- [32]Bolli N A DNA target-enrichment approach to detect mutations, copy number changes and immunoglobulin translocations in multiple myeloma Blood Cancer J. 2016 6 e467 10.1038/bcj.2016.72 27588520 PMC5056967 · DOI
- [33]Alexandrov LB Nik-Zainal S Wedge DC Campbell PJ Stratton MR Deciphering signatures of mutational processes operative in human cancer Cell Rep. 2013 3 246 259 10.1016/j.celrep.2012.12.008 23318258 PMC3588146 · DOI
- [34]Pasqualucci L Expression of the AID protein in normal and neoplastic B cells Blood 2004 104 3318 3325 10.1182/blood-2004-04-1558 15304391 · DOI
- [35]Li H Durbin R Fast and accurate long-read alignment with Burrows–Wheeler transform Bioinformatics 2010 26 589 595 10.1093/bioinformatics/btp698 20080505 PMC2828108 · DOI · Paper page
- [36]Jones D cgpCaVEManWrapper: simple execution of caveman in order to detect somatic single nucleotide variants in NGS data Curr. Protoc. Bioinformatics 2016 56 15.10.1 15.10.18 10.1002/cpbi.20 PMC6097605 27930805 · DOI
- [37]Raine, K. M. et al. cgpPindel: identifying somatically acquired insertion and deletion events from paired end sequencing. Curr Protoc Bioinformatics52, 15.7.1–12 (2015). PMC6097606 26678382
- [39]Van Loo P Allele-specific copy number analysis of tumors Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 2010 107 16910 16915 10.1073/pnas.1009843107 20837533 PMC2947907 · DOI
- [40]Raine KM ascatNgs: identifying somatically acquired copy number alterations from whole-genome sequencing data Curr. Protoc. Bioinformatics 2016 56 15.9.1 15.9.17 10.1002/cpbi.17 PMC6097604 27930809 · DOI
- [42]Yates LR Subclonal diversification of primary breast cancer revealed by multiregion sequencing Nat. Med. 2015 21 751 759 10.1038/nm.3886 26099045 PMC4500826 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Characterizing genetic intra-tumor heterogeneity across 2,658 human cancer genomes
Dentro, S. C., Leshchiner, I., Haase, K., Tarabichi, M., Wintersinger, J., Deshwar, A. G., Yu, K., Rubanova, Y., Macintyre, G., Demeulemeester, J., et al. (2021) · Cell · doi:10.1016/j.cell.2021.03.009 · Cited by 533 · see citing works
Self-citationBustoros, M., Sklavenitis-Pistofidis, R., Park, J., Redd, R., Zhitomirsky, B., Dunford, A. J., Salem, K., Tai, Y.-T., Anand, S., Mouhieddine, T. H., et al. (2020) · Journal of Clinical Oncology · doi:10.1200/jco.20.00437 · Cited by 187 · see citing works
Self-citationTermini, R., Žihala, D., Terpos, E., Perez-Montaña, A., Jelínek, T., Raab, M., Weinhold, N., Mai, E. K., Grab, A. L., Corre, J., et al. (2022) · Clinical Cancer Research · doi:10.1158/1078-0432.ccr-22-1594 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationDutta, A. K., Alberge, J.-B., Lightbody, E. D., Boehner, C. J., Dunford, A., Sklavenitis-Pistofidis, R., Mouhieddine, T. H., Cowan, A. N., Su, N. K., Horowitz, E. M., et al. (2023) · Cancer Discovery · doi:10.1158/2159-8290.cd-22-0482 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
Temporal genomic dynamics shape clinical trajectory in multiple myeloma
Maura, F., Kaddoura, M., Poos, A. M., Baughn, L. B., Ziccheddu, B., Bärtsch, M.-A., Cirrincione, A., Maclachlan, K., Chojnacka, M., Diamond, B., et al. (2025) · Nature Genetics · doi:10.1038/s41588-025-02292-1 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Self-citationEvolution of Multiple Myeloma from a Genomic Perspective
Maura, F., Samur, M., & Munshi, N. (2026) · Blood · doi:10.1182/blood.2024026313 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citation
- Authors
- Bolli, N., Maura, F., Minvielle, S., Gloznik, D., Szalat, R., Fullam, A., Martincorena, I., Dawson, K. J., Samur, M. K., Zamora, J., Tarpey, P., Davies, H., Fulciniti, M., Shammas, M. A., Tai, Y. T., Magrangeas, F., Moreau, P., Corradini, P., Anderson, K., Alexandrov, L., Wedge, D. C., Avet-Loiseau, H., Campbell, P., & Munshi, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Milan (IT)
- Wellcome Sanger Institute (GB)
- Harvard University (US)
- Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Campbell, Peter
- Munshi, Nikhil
- ORCID
- Bolli, Niccolò
- Maura, Francesco
- Szalat, Raphael
- Fullam, Anthony
- Samur, Mehmet Kemal
- Zamora, Jorge
- Tarpey, Patrick
- Davies, Helen
- Fulciniti, Mariateresa
- Shammas, Masood A.
- Tai, Yu Tzu
- Magrangeas, Florence
- Moreau, Philippe
- Corradini, Paolo
- Anderson, Kenneth
- Alexandrov, Ludmil
- Wedge, David C.
- Campbell, Peter
- Munshi, Nikhil
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2018-08-22
- Volume
- 9
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 3363-3363
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6105687
- OpenAlex
- W2885104676
- Cited by
- 222
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 23 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 44 · 2020: 40 · 2019: 20 · 2018: 3
- FWCI
- 19.17
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (Universita Degli Studi Di Milano) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Research Explorer (The University of Manchester) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (I01 BX001584, I01BX001584-01)
- Leukemia and Lymphoma Society
- Cancer Research UK (21777)
- Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (17658)
- Associazione Italiana Contro le Leucemie-Linfomi e Mieloma
- Società Italiana di Ematologia Sperimentale
- National Institutes of Health (P01-155258, I01BX001584-01, I01-BX001584, CA100707)
- National Cancer Institute (P50CA100707, P01CA155258)
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hematology › Multiple Myeloma Research and Treatments
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Cancer Research › Cancer Genomics and Diagnostics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Hematology › Acute Myeloid Leukemia Research
- Keywords
- smoldering multiple myeloma, progression to multiple myeloma, myelomagenesis, subclonal architecture, mutational landscape, structural rearrangement, APOBEC cytidine deaminases, AID, clonal evolution, paired tumor samples, disease burden, time to treatment
- MeSH terms
- Smoldering Multiple Myeloma, Aged, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Multiple Myeloma, Mutation, Risk Factors, Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic, Disease Progression, Gene Expression Profiling, Genomics, Databases, Genetic
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review