The DOI matches its Crossref record; 53 of the 53 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways
Open accessAbstract
Despite its small land coverage, urban land and its expansion have exhibited profound impacts on global environments. Here, we present the scenario projections of global urban land expansion under the framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Our projections feature a fine spatial resolution of 1 km to preserve spatial details. The projections reveal that although global urban land continues to expand rapidly before the 2040s, China and many other Asian countries are expected to encounter substantial pressure from urban population decline after the 2050s. Approximately 50–63% of the newly expanded urban land is expected to occur on current croplands. Global crop production will decline by approximately 1–4%, corresponding to the annual food needs for a certain crop of 122–1389 million people. These findings stress the importance of governing urban land development as a key measure to mitigate its negative impacts on food production.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Human domination of Earth’s ecosystems
Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J., & Melillo, J. M. (1997) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.277.5325.494 · Cited by 9,086
Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607
The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues
Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2011) · Hague Journal on the Rule of Law · doi:10.1017/s1876404511200046 · Cited by 5,621
The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241
Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools
Seto, K. C., Güneralp, B., & Hutyra, L. R. (2012) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1211658109 · Cited by 5,086
Liu, X., Liang, X., Li, X., Xu, X., Ou, J., Chen, Y., Li, S., Wang, S., & Pei, F. (2017) · Landscape and Urban Planning · doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2017.09.019 · Cited by 1,744
Self-citationReconciling Food Production and Biodiversity Conservation: Land Sharing and Land Sparing Compared
Phalan, B., Onial, M., Balmford, A., & Green, R. E. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1208742 · Cited by 1,686
Forest soils and carbon sequestration
Lal, R. (2005) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2005.08.015 · Cited by 1,474
Future urban land expansion and implications for global croplands
Bren d’Amour, C., Reitsma, F., Baiocchi, G., Barthel, S., Güneralp, B., Erb, K.-H., Haberl, H., Creutzig, F., & Seto, K. C. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1606036114 · Cited by 1,378
Fricko, O., Havlik, P., Rogelj, J., Klimont, Z., Gusti, M., Johnson, N., Kolp, P., Strubegger, M., Valin, H., Amann, M., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.06.004 · Cited by 1,075
Cited by
Yigitcanlar, T., & Cugurullo, F. (2020) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su12208548 · Cited by 337
Exploring the multiple land degradation pathways across the planet
Prăvălie, R. (2021) · Earth-Science Reviews · doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103689 · Cited by 322
Metadata
- Authors
- Chen, G., Li, X., Liu, X., Chen, Y., Liang, X., Leng, J., Xu, X., Liao, W., Qiu, Y., Wu, Q., & Huang, K.
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2020-01-27
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 537-537
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W3001832800
- Cited by
- 873
- References
- 53
- FWCI
- 39.64
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
How to cite
Cite CoChat for the checks on this page, and the paper for its own findings.
- This page
- CoChat. (2026). Citation check: Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways. https://app.cochat.ai/papers/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x
- The paper
- Chen, G., Li, X., Liu, X., Chen, Y., Liang, X., Leng, J., Xu, X., Liao, W., Qiu, Y., Wu, Q., & Huang, K. (2020). Global projections of future urban land expansion under shared socioeconomic pathways. Nature Communications. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14386-x
Data sources
Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.
Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.
