Incorporating hydrology into climate suitability models changes projections of malaria transmission in Africa
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Continental-scale models of malaria climate suitability typically couple well-established temperature-response models with basic estimates of vector habitat availability using rainfall as a proxy. Here we show that across continental Africa, the estimated geographic range of climatic suitability for malaria transmission is more sensitive to the precipitation threshold than the thermal response curve applied. To address this problem we use downscaled daily climate predictions from seven GCMs to run a continental-scale hydrological model for a process-based representation of mosquito breeding habitat availability. A more complex pattern of malaria suitability emerges as water is routed through drainage networks and river corridors serve as year-round transmission foci. The estimated hydro-climatically suitable area for stable malaria transmission is smaller than previous models suggest and shows only a very small increase in state-of-the-art future climate scenarios. However, bigger geographical shifts are observed than with most rainfall threshold models and the pattern of that shift is very different when using a hydrological model to estimate surface water availability for vector breeding.
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Using a hydrologic model to simulate habitat availability can uncover more complex patterns in climatic suitability for malaria transmission than applying a rainfall threshold.
“A recent study by Smith et al. demonstrated that using a hydrologic model to simulate habitat availability can uncover more complex patterns in climatic suitability for malaria transmission than applying a rainfall threshold (M. W. Smith et al., 2020).”
From Investigating the Impact of Irrigation on Malaria Vector Larval Habitats and Transmission Using a Hydrology‐Based Model (2023) · cites this paper as M. W. Smith et al., 2020
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Self-citationClimate-related stressors, community healthcare systems, and adaptation strategies: A scoping review
Saad, S., Adede, C., Citrin, D., Wasunna, B., Wafula, M. B., Jafa, K., & Ebi, K. L. (2025) · The Journal of Climate Change and Health · doi:10.1016/j.joclim.2025.100574 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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Geospatial mapping of malaria risk in flood-prone zones of Sub-Saharan Africa
Eudaric, J., de Ruiter, M., Sairam, N., Camero, A., Shahi, K. R., Smith, M. W., Zhu, X. X., & Kreibich, H. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-54811-7 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
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Projected shifts in the distribution of Anopheles funestus under future climate scenarios in Malawi
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- Authors
- Smith, M. W., Willis, T., Alfieri, L., James, W. H. M., Trigg, M. A., Yamazaki, D., Hardy, A. J., Bisselink, B., De Roo, A., Macklin, M. G., & Thomas, C. J.
- Affiliations
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Joint Research Centre (IT)
- Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo (JP)
- Aberystwyth University (GB)
- University of Lincoln (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, M. W.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2020-08-28
- Volume
- 11
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4353-4353
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC7455692
- OpenAlex
- W3082720702
- Cited by
- 59
- References
- 48
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 9 · 2023: 4 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 17 · 2020: 5
- FWCI
- 3.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Lincoln Repository (University of Lincoln) (acceptedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- Figshare (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Funders
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/P013481/2, NE/P013481/1, NE/H022740/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Malaria Research and Control
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health › Mosquito-borne diseases and control
- Keywords
- malaria transmission, climate suitability, hydrological modeling, mosquito breeding sites, precipitation thresholds, thermal response curves, climate change projections, river corridors, drainage network, surface water availability, Africa, vector-borne diseases
- MeSH terms
- Mosquito Vectors, Africa, Animals, Anopheles, Ecology, Geography, Malaria, Seasons, Temperature, Ecosystem, Rivers, Climate Change, Hydrology, Geographic Mapping
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