Global catastrophic risk from lower magnitude volcanic eruptions
Open accessAbstract
Globalisation supports the clustering of critical infrastructure systems, sometimes in proximity to lower-magnitude (VEI 3–6) volcanic centres. In this emerging risk landscape, moderate volcanic eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects. Risk assessments ought to be considered in this light.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Even modest volcanic eruptions could lead to disruption and catastrophic economic system collapse.
“Even modest volcanic eruptions could lead to disruption and catastrophic economic system collapse (Mani et al., 2021).”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Mani et al., 2021
The Abstract says moderate eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects, and ‘A manufactured global catastrophic risk landscape’ describes global disruption and economic losses from a VEI 4 eruption. Those passages support the possibility of serious economic disruption, but they do not establish catastrophic collapse of the economic system. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredA volcanic eruption would not solely affect temperature; many pinch points of global supply systems are near active volcanic areas.
“A second and novel addition is that a volcanic eruption would not solely affect temperature. Many pinch points of global supply systems are near active volcanic areas.”
From A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk (2021) · cites this paper as Mani et al., 2021
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
The Great Tambora Eruption in 1815 and Its Aftermath
Stothers, R. B. (1984) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.224.4654.1191 · Cited by 479 · see citing works
(2009) · Disaster Prevention and Management An International Journal · doi:10.1108/dpm.2009.07318cae.003 · Cited by 409 · see citing works
Ash generation and distribution from the April-May 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull, Iceland
Guðmundsson, M. T., Thordarson, T., Höskuldsson, Á., Larsen, G., Björnsson, H., Prata, F. J., Oddsson, B., Magnússon, E., Högnadóttir, Þ., Petersen, G. N., et al. (2012) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep00572 · Cited by 358 · see citing works
Volcanic hazard impacts to critical infrastructure: A review
Wilson, G., Wilson, T., Deligne, N. I., & Cole, J. (2014) · Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research · doi:10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2014.08.030 · Cited by 289 · see citing works
Extensive ash falls in and around the sea of Japan from large late quaternary eruptions
Machida, H., & Arai, F. (1983) · Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research · doi:10.1016/0377-0273(83)90007-0 · Cited by 248 · see citing works
Eruptions that Shook the World
Oppenheimer, C. (2011) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511978012 · Cited by 200 · see citing works
Eruptions that shook the world
Oppenheimer, C. (2012) · Choice Reviews Online · doi:10.5860/choice.49-3275 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts
Newhall, C. G., Self, S., & Robock, A. D. (2018) · Geosphere · doi:10.1130/ges01513.1 · Cited by 139 · see citing works
Classifying global catastrophic risks
Avin, S., Wintle, B. C., Weitzdörfer, J., Ó hÉigeartaigh, S. S., Sutherland, W. J., & Rees, M. J. (2018) · Futures · doi:10.1016/j.futures.2018.02.001 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Supereruptions as a Threat to Civilizations on Earth-like Planets
Rampino, M. R. (2002) · Icarus · doi:10.1006/icar.2001.6808 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Chokepoints and Vulnerabilities in Global Food Trade
Bailey, R., & Wellesley, L. (2017) · Cited by 66 · see citing works
Northern Andean crustal evolution: New U-Pb geochronological constraints from Ecuador
Noble, S. R., Aspden, J. A., & Jemielita, R. A. (1997) · Geological Society of America Bulletin · doi:10.1130/0016-7606(1997)109 · Cited by 63 · see citing works
Volcanic threats to global society
Papale, P., & Marzocchi, W. (2019) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.aaw7201 · Cited by 50 · see citing works
Evolving Critical Systems: A Research Agenda for Computer-Based Systems
Hinchey, M., & Coyle, L. (2010) · IEEE International Conference and Workshops on Engineering of Computer-Based Systems (ECBS) · doi:10.1109/ecbs.2010.56 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Pu, H., Lin, C., Lai, Y., Shih, M. H., Chang, L. C., Lee, H.-F., Lee, P. T., Hong, G.-T., Li, Y. H., Chang, W., et al. (2020) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-020-63270-7 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- [10]Oxford Economics. The Economic Impacts of Air Travel Restrictions Due to Volcanic Ash. 1–15 https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/projects/129051 (2010).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
Kemp, L., Xu, C., Depledge, J. J., Ebi, K. L., Gibbins, G., Kohler, T. A., Rockström, J., Scheffer, M., Schellnhuber, H. J., Steffen, W., et al. (2022) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2108146119 · Cited by 799 · see citing works
A Fate Worse Than Warming? Stratospheric Aerosol Injection and Global Catastrophic Risk
Tang, A., & Kemp, L. (2021) · Frontiers in Climate · doi:10.3389/fclim.2021.720312 · Cited by 58 · see citing works
“Even modest volcanic eruptions could lead to disruption and catastrophic economic system collapse (Mani et al., 2021).”
BackgroundHuge volcanic eruptions: time to prepare
Cassidy, M., & Mani, L. (2022) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-022-02177-x · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Self-citationDisaster early-warning systems are ‘doomed to fail’ — only collective action can plug the gaps
Tupper, A. C., & Fearnley, C. J. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/d41586-023-03510-8 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight‐reducing catastrophes
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14072 · Cited by 34 · see citing works
Research on Real-Time Robust Optimization of Perishable Supply-Chain Systems Based on Digital Twins
Wu, Y., Zhang, J., Li, Q., & Tan, H. (2023) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s23041850 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
The lifecycle of volcanic ash: advances and ongoing challenges
Paredes‐Mariño, J., Forte, P., Alois, S., Chan, K. L., Cigala, V., Mueller, S. B., Poret, M., Spanu, A., Tomašek, I., Tournigand, P., et al. (2022) · Bulletin of Volcanology · doi:10.1007/s00445-022-01557-5 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Wilson, N., Valler, V., Cassidy, M., Boyd, M., Mani, L., & Brönnimann, S. (2023) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-023-30729-2 · Cited by 25 · see citing works
Self-citationHazardous explosive eruptions of a recharging multi-cyclic island arc caldera
Preine, J., Karstens, J., Hübscher, C., Druitt, T. H., Kutterolf, S., Nomikou, P., Manga, M., Gertisser, R., Pank, K., Beethe, S., et al. (2024) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01392-7 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Boyd, M., Ragnarsson, S., Terry, S., Payne, B., & Wilson, N. (2024) · Risk Analysis · doi:10.1111/risa.14297 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Orynbaikyzy, A., Plank, S., Vetrita, Y., Martinis, S., Santoso, I., Ismanto, R. D., Chusnayah, F., Tjahjaningsih, A., Suwarsono, S., Genzano, N., et al. (2022) · International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation · doi:10.1016/j.jag.2022.103166 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
The 2021 La Palma eruption: social dilemmas resulting from life close to an active volcano
Troll, V. R., Aulinas, M., Carracedo, J. C., Geiger, H., Pérez-Torrado, F.-J., Soler, V., Deegan, F. M., Bloszies, C., Weis, F. A., Albert, H., et al. (2024) · Geology Today · doi:10.1111/gto.12472 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Food trade disruption after global catastrophes
Jehn, F. U., Gajewski, Ł. G., Hedlund, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Xia, L., Wunderling, N., & Denkenberger, D. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-1585-2025 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Landslide Induced Tsunami Hazard at Volcanoes: the Case of Santorini
Necmioğlu, Ö., Heidarzadeh, M., Vougioukalakis, G. E., & Selva, J. (2023) · Pure and Applied Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s00024-023-03252-8 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Assessing natural global catastrophic risks
Baum, S. D. (2022) · Natural Hazards · doi:10.1007/s11069-022-05660-w · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Cities near volcanoes: which cities are most exposed to volcanic hazards?
Meredith, E. S., Teng, R. X. N., Jenkins, S. F., Hayes, J. L., Biass, S., & Handley, H. (2025) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-25-2731-2025 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
The state of global catastrophic risk research: a bibliometric review
Jehn, F. U., Engler, J., Arnscheidt, C. W., Wache, M., Ilin, E., Cook, L., Sundaram, L. S., Hanusch, F., & Kemp, L. (2025) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-16-1053-2025 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Esse, B., Burton, M. R., Hayer, C. S. L., Spina, G. L., Cofrades, A. P., Asensio‐Ramos, M., Barrancos, J., & Pérez, N. M. (2025) · Bulletin of Volcanology · doi:10.1007/s00445-025-01803-6 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
It's time to consider global catastrophic food failures
Wescombe, N. J., Martínez, J. B. G., Jehn, F. U., Wunderling, N., Tzachor, A., Sandström, V., Cassidy, M., Ainsworth, R., & Denkenberger, D. (2025) · Global Food Security · doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2025.100880 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationCserép, B., Szemerédi, M., Harangi, S., Erdmann, S., Bachmann, O., Dunkl, I., Seghedi, I., Mészáros, K., Kovács, Z., Virág, A., et al. (2023) · Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology · doi:10.1007/s00410-023-02075-z · Cited by 6 · see citing works
6. Natural Global Catastrophic Risks
Mani, L., Erwin, D. H., & Johnson, L. N. (2022) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0336.06 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Ethics of Volcano Geoengineering
Cassidy, M., Sandberg, A., & Mani, L. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003714 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationLee, E.-R., Lee, H.-S., Lee, J., Park, S., & Jung, H.-S. (2023) · GEO DATA · doi:10.22761/gd.2023.0056 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Pu, H., Lin, C., Lai, Y., Shih, M., & Li, Y.-H. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-02345-9 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
10. Military Artificial Intelligence as a Contributor to Global Catastrophic Risk
Maas, M. M., Matteucci, K., & Cooke, D. (2023) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0336.10 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Chen, Y., Wang, X., & Zhu, H. (2023) · Symmetry · doi:10.3390/sym15020265 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk
Arnscheidt, C. W., Beard, S., Hobson, T., Ingram, P., Kemp, L., Mani, L., Marcoci, A., Mbeva, K., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó., Sandberg, A., et al. (2025) · Global Sustainability · doi:10.1017/sus.2025.20 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationThe 2021 La Palma eruption; social dilemmas resulting from living close to an active volcanoPreprint
Troll, V. R., Junca, M. A., Carracedo, J. C., Geiger, H., Pérez-Torrado, F.-J., Soler, V., Deegan, F. M., Bloszies, C., Weis, F. A., Mínguez, H. A., et al. (2023) · doi:10.31223/x5qx1m · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Lessons for an invisible future from an invisible past: Risk and resilience in deep time
Barton, C. M., Aura-Tortosa, J. E., Puchol, O. G., Riel-Salvatore, J. G., & Ullah, I. I. T. (2024) · The Holocene · doi:10.1177/09596836241259788 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Lin, C., Lai, Y., & Shih, M. (2025) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-025-09558-y · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Cremer, Z., & Kemp, L. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.02 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Military Artificial Intelligence as Contributor to Global Catastrophic RiskPreprint
Maas, M. M., Matteucci, K., & Cooke, D. (2022) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4115010 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Graham, J., Boyd, M., Sadler, G., & Noetel, M. (2025) · SSRN Electronic Journal · doi:10.2139/ssrn.5253625 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Satow, C., Watt, S. F. L., Cassidy, M., Pyle, D. M., & Deng, Y. N. (2023) · Geosciences · doi:10.3390/geosciences13040124 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Geothermal feasibility analysis inside Yangmingshan National Park, Taiwan
Wang, C., Lu, Y.-C., & Song, S. (2023) · Geothermics · doi:10.1016/j.geothermics.2023.102834 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
A Year of Volcanic Hot-Spot Detection over Mediterranean Europe Using SEVIRI/MSG
Alonso, C., Durão, R. M., & Gouveia, C. M. (2023) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs15215219 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Wu, Y., & Liu, W. (2024) · Concurrency and Computation Practice and Experience · doi:10.1002/cpe.8233 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Systemic contributions to global catastrophic riskPreprint
Arnscheidt, C. W., Beard, S., Hobson, T., Ingram, P., Kemp, L., Mani, L., Marcoci, A., Mbeva, K., hÉigeartaigh, S. Ó., Sandberg, A., et al. (2024) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/wcj9e · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Self-citationIsland refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophesPreprint
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1927222/v1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Wilson, N., Cassidy, M., Boyd, M., Mani, L., Valler, V., & Brönnimann, S. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-2124163/v1 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Self-citationFöst, J.-P., Ritter, J. R. R., Evangelidis, C., Sokos, E. N., Richter, N., & Reicherter, K. R. (2025) · Annals of Geophysics · doi:10.4401/ag-9155 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Chan, C. Y.-C., Prá, G. D., Johnson, I., Boyd, M., & Glomseth, R. E. (2025) · International Journal of Disaster Risk Science · doi:10.1007/s13753-025-00657-y · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Orynbaikyzy, A., Santoso, I., Rösch, M., Martinis, S., Ismanto, R. D., Vetrita, Y., Khomarudin, M. R., Strunz, G., & Plank, S. (2025) · International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation · doi:10.1016/j.jag.2025.104965 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Meredith, E. S., Handley, H., Jenkins, S. F., Chim, M. M., & Gregg, C. E. (2026) · Anthropocene · doi:10.1016/j.ancene.2026.100542 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Murti, D. C. W., Marta, R. F., Almuntarizi, A., & Manalu, T. D. (2023) · Jurnal Komunikasi Indonesia · doi:10.7454/jkmi.v12i1.1059 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
15. A Fate Worse Than Warming?
Tang, A., & Kemp, L. (2024) · Open Book Publishers · doi:10.11647/obp.0360.15
Direct Observation of Spallation Bombs During The 2021 La Palma Eruption, Canary Islands, SpainPreprint
James, M. D., Geiger, H., Troll, V. R., Pérez-Torrado, F.-J., Aulinas, M., Gisbert, G., & Carracedo, J. C. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1297697/v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sun-reducing catastrophesPreprint
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2022) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1927222/v2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4590974/v1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2024) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4590974/v2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
A Lunar Backup Record of Humanity
Ezell, C., Lazarian, A., & Loeb, A. (2022) · Signals · doi:10.3390/signals3040049
Nathan Sears: “… in the midst of catastrophe”
Belfield, H. (2023) · Global Policy · doi:10.1111/1758-5899.13263
Boyd, M., Ragnarsson, S., Terry, S., Payne, B., & Wilson, N. (2023) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-3273609/v2
Tupper, A. C., & Leonard, G. S. (2024) · Bulletin of Volcanology · doi:10.1007/s00445-024-01715-x
Object-Based Random Forest Classification for Rapid Mapping of Recent Volcanic Material Deposits
Santoso, I., Ismanto, R. D., Vetrita, Y., Suwarsono, S., Tjahjaningsih, A., Chusnayah, F., Rahmadi, R., Suhermat, M., & Monica, D. (2025) · Springer proceedings in physics · doi:10.1007/978-981-96-1344-1_11
Boyd, M., & Wilson, N. (2025) · Research Square · doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-4590974/v3
Jehn, F. U. (2023) · doi:10.59350/632mm-dak33
Jehn, F. U. (2023) · doi:10.59350/99g5e-60q98
A Review of Volcanic Activity and the Evolution of Coral Reefs
Fuentes, V. E. A., Piña‐Flores, J., & Simón, D. H. (2026) · IntechOpen eBooks · doi:10.5772/intechopen.1015406
Forecasting onset and termination of volcanic eruptions: A case study Popocatépetl volcano, Mexico
Villamizar, D. H., Ortega, A. G., & Granados, H. D. (2026) · Journal of South American Earth Sciences · doi:10.1016/j.jsames.2026.106278
A Primer on Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR)
Kemp, L. (2026) · Oxford University Press eBooks · doi:10.1093/9780198945239.003.0058
Pecora, E., Biale, E., Calvagna, F., Ciancitto, F., Coltelli, M., Lodato, L., Mereu, L., Prestifilippo, M., Principato, P., Pruiti, L., et al. (2026) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs18193348
- Authors
- Mani, L., Tzachor, A., & Cole, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Cambridge (GB)
- Reichman University (IL)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Mani, Lara
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2021-08-06
- Volume
- 12
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 4756-4756
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC8346556
- OpenAlex
- W3190815416
- Cited by
- 63
- References
- 15
- Citations by year
- 2026: 5 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 19 · 2022: 12 · 2021: 1
- FWCI
- 14.90
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
- Apollo (University of Cambridge) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- Apollo
- Apollo (cc-by)
- Funders
- Templeton World Charity Foundation, Inc., grant reference number: 0367
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Disaster Management and Resilience
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Civil and Structural Engineering › Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty › Risk and Safety Analysis
- Keywords
- global catastrophic risk, volcanic hazards, critical infrastructure, cascading failures, risk assessment
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
