Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
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Forest mortality caused by convective storms (windthrow) is a major disturbance in the Amazon. However, the linkage between windthrows at the surface and convective storms in the atmosphere remains unclear. In addition, the current Earth system models (ESMs) lack mechanistic links between convective wind events and tree mortality. Here we find an empirical relationship that maps convective available potential energy, which is well simulated by ESMs, to the spatial pattern of large windthrow events. This relationship builds connections between strong convective storms and forest dynamics in the Amazon. Based on the relationship, our model projects a 51 ± 20% increase in the area favorable to extreme storms, and a 43 ± 17% increase in windthrow density within the Amazon by the end of this century under the high-emission scenario (SSP 585). These results indicate significant changes in tropical forest composition and carbon cycle dynamics under climate change.
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Increasing rainfall variability is causing extreme drought events to become more widespread and frequent across the Amazon, together with extreme wet events and convective storms that result in more windthrow disturbances.
“Increasing rainfall variability is causing extreme drought events to become more widespread and frequent across the Amazon (Fig. 1c), together with extreme wet events and convective storms that result in more windthrow disturbances40.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [40]
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Cites
Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming
Singh, M. S., Kuang, Z., Maloney, E. D., Hannah, W. M., & Wolding, B. O. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1707603114 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
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Research works printed but not linked: 14
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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
- Authors
- Feng, Y., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Romps, D. M., & Chambers, J. Q.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Feng, Yanlei
- Venue
- Nature Communications
- Published
- 2023-01-06
- Volume
- 14
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 101-101
- ISSN
- 2041-1723 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC9822931
- OpenAlex
- W4313597023
- Cited by
- 46
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 8 · 2025: 15 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 7
- FWCI
- 4.51
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Nature Communications (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
- OSTI OAI (U.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- DOE | SC | Biological and Environmental Research (DE-AC02-05CH11231)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Engineering › Mechanical Engineering › Tree Root and Stability Studies
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
- Keywords
- windthrow, convective storms, Amazon rainforest, forest mortality, convective available potential energy, extreme storms, climate change projections, SSP5-8.5, carbon cycle, Earth system models, forest disturbance
- MeSH terms
- Trees, Wind, Climate Change, Global Warming, Forests
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