Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming
Open accessAbstract
Significance: A substantial fraction of the world’s most intense thunderstorms occur in the tropics and subtropics, but the response of such storms to climate change remains uncertain. Here, we show that, in simulations of global warming, a measure of the energy available to thunderstorms increases robustly across the tropics and subtropics. Furthermore, we elucidate an important mechanism contributing to such increases in available energy, and we present observational evidence that this mechanism is present in Earth’s atmosphere. By combining theory, observations, and models, our results provide confidence in climate model projections of future intense thunderstorm potential; such model projections are shown to imply large future increases in the frequency of damaging thunderstorm environments in tropical and subtropical regions.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Storms will increase in severity and frequency as a result of climate change.
“Storms will increase in severity and frequency as a result of climate change [42–44].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [43]
The Results (page unavailable) project more frequent environments conducive to damaging thunderstorms in the tropics and subtropics as the climate warms. The Conclusions (page unavailable) describe increased potential for intense thunderstorms, but caution that changes in actual thunderstorm activity depend on factors the models do not resolve. The source therefore does not establish that storms generally will become both more severe and more frequent. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052 · see citing works
Huffman, G. J., Bolvin, D. T., Nelkin, E. J., Wolff, D. B., Adler, R. F., Gu, G., Hong, Y. E., Bowman, K. P., & Stocker, E. F. (2007) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/jhm560.1 · Cited by 6,773 · see citing works
A Comprehensive Mass Flux Scheme for Cumulus Parameterization in Large-Scale Models
Tiedtke, M. (1989) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1989)117 · Cited by 3,654 · see citing works
WHERE ARE THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ON EARTH?
Zipser, E. J., Cecil, D. J., Liu, C., Nesbitt, S. W., & Yorty, D. P. (2006) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-87-8-1057 · Cited by 992 · see citing works
Overview of the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive
Durre, I., Vose, R. S., & Wuertz, D. B. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3594.1 · Cited by 827 · see citing works
The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data
Brooks, H. E., Lee, J. W., & Craven, J. P. (2003) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/s0169-8095(03)00045-0 · Cited by 660 · see citing works
Projected increase in lightning strikes in the United States due to global warming
Romps, D. M., Seeley, J. T., Vollaro, D., & Molinari, J. (2014) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1259100 · Cited by 613 · see citing works
A Comparison of Breeding and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Ensemble Forecast Schemes
Wang, X., & Bishop, C. (2003) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060 · Cited by 437 · see citing works
Robust increases in severe thunderstorm environments in response to greenhouse forcing
Diffenbaugh, N. S., Scherer, M., & Trapp, R. J. (2013) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1307758110 · Cited by 420 · see citing works
Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Brooks, H. E., Baldwin, M. E., Robinsòn, E. D., & Pal, J. S. (2007) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705494104 · Cited by 393 · see citing works
A Cloud and Precipitation Feature Database from Nine Years of TRMM Observations
Liu, C., Zipser, E. J., Cecil, D. J., Nesbitt, S. W., & Sherwood, S. C. (2008) · Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology · doi:10.1175/2008jamc1890.1 · Cited by 384 · see citing works
Severe thunderstorms and climate change
Brooks, H. E. (2012) · Atmospheric Research · doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002 · Cited by 368 · see citing works
Improving the Anelastic Approximation
Durran, D. R. (1989) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046 · Cited by 301 · see citing works
The Equatorial 30-60 day Oscillation and the Arakawa-Schubert Penetrative Cumulus Parameterization
Tokioka, T., Yamazaki, K., Kitoh, A., & Ose, T. (1988) · Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan Ser II · doi:10.2151/jmsj1965.66.6_883 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Intensification of Precipitation Extremes with Warming in a Cloud-Resolving Model
Muller, C. J., O’Gorman, P. A., & Back, L. E. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli3876.1 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Parameterizing Convective Organization to Escape the Entrainment Dilemma
Mapes, B. E., & Neale, R. (2011) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2011ms000042 · Cited by 226 · see citing works
Structure of the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Superparameterized CAM
Benedict, J. J., & Randall, D. A. (2009) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/2009jas3030.1 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Gao, Y., Fu, J. S., Drake, J. B., Liu, Y., & Lamarque, J.-F. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044025 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Singh, M. S., & O'Gorman, P. A. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50796 · Cited by 179 · see citing works
Self-citationAn Analytical Model for Tropical Relative Humidity
Romps, D. M. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00255.1 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
Response of Tropical Precipitation to Global Warming
Romps, D. M. (2011) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/2010jas3542.1 · Cited by 166 · see citing works
The Effect of Global Warming on Severe Thunderstorms in the United States
Seeley, J. T., & Romps, D. M. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00382.1 · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Changes in hail and flood risk in high-resolution simulations over Colorado's mountains
Mahoney, K. M., Alexander, M., Thompson, G., Barsugli, J., & Scott, J. D. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1344 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
The Role of Moisture–Convection Feedbacks in Simulating the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Hannah, W. M., & Maloney, E. D. (2011) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2011jcli3803.1 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
Self-citationPredicting Atlantic Basin Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity by 1 June
Gray, W. M., Landsea, C. W., Mielke, P. W., & Berry, K. J. (1994) · Weather and Forecasting · doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009 · Cited by 119 · see citing works
Why does tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE) increase with warming?
Seeley, J. T., & Romps, D. M. (2015) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2015gl066199 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Influence of microphysics on the scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature
Singh, M. S., & O'Gorman, P. A. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl061222 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citationMJO Intensification with Warming in the Superparameterized CESM
Arnold, N., Branson, M., Kuang, Z., Randall, D. A., & Tziperman, E. (2015) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00494.1 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Self-citationThe Realization of Extreme Tornadic Storm Events under Future Anthropogenic Climate Change
Trapp, R. J., & Hoogewind, K. A. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-15-0623.1 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
The Aeronomy of Hydrogen in the Atmosphere of the Earth
Liu, S. C., & DONAHUE, T. M. (1974) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Projected Future Seasonal Changes in Tropical Summer Climate
Sobel, A. H., & Camargo, S. J. (2010) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2010jcli3748.1 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Clausius–Clapeyron Scaling of CAPE from Analytical Solutions to RCE
Romps, D. M. (2016) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-15-0327.1 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
A mechanism for land–ocean contrasts in global monsoon trends in a warming climate
Fasullo, J. (2011) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1270-3 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Increases in moist‐convective updraught velocities with warming in radiative‐convective equilibrium
Singh, M. S., & O'Gorman, P. A. (2015) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.2567 · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationAllen, J. T., Karoly, D. J., & Walsh, K. J. E. (2014) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00426.1 · Cited by 80 · see citing works
Kooperman, G. J., Pritchard, M. S., Burt, M., Branson, M., & Randall, D. A. (2016) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2015ms000574 · Cited by 79 · see citing works
Balanced dynamics and convection in the tropical troposphere
Raymond, D. J., Fuchs, Ž., Gjorgjievska, S., & SESSIONS, S. L. (2015) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2015ms000467 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Interaction between dynamics and thermodynamics during tropical cyclogenesis
Gjorgjievska, S., & Raymond, D. J. (2014) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-14-3065-2014 · Cited by 73 · see citing works
Wolding, B. O., Maloney, E. D., Henderson, S. A., & Branson, M. (2017) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1002/2016ms000843 · Cited by 55 · see citing works
Self-citationTian, Y., & Kuang, Z. (2016) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2016gl069005 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Self-citationWang (1980) · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037
Price, C. (1994) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007
Sobel (2001) · doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2001)058
McHugh, M. (2004) · doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017
Flagged first, then by citations
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
Fowler, H. J., Lenderink, G., Prein, A. F., Westra, S., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Do, H. X., et al. (2021) · Nature Reviews Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43017-020-00128-6 · Cited by 989 · see citing works
Changes in Convective Available Potential Energy and Convective Inhibition under Global Warming
Chen, J., Dai, A., Zhang, Y., & Rasmussen, K. L. (2019) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0461.1 · Cited by 202 · see citing works
Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes
Fowler, H. J., Ali, H., Allan, R. P., Ban, N., Barbero, R., Berg, P., Blenkinsop, S., Cabi, N. S., Chan, S. C., Dale, M., et al. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0542 · Cited by 173 · see citing works
Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.
Balsari, S., Dresser, C., & Leaning, J. (2020) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Future Global Convective Environments in CMIP6 Models
Lepore, C., Abernathey, R., Henderson, N., Allen, J. T., & Tippett, M. K. (2021) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2021ef002277 · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Li, F., Chavas, D. R., Reed, K. A., & Dawson, D. T. (2020) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-19-0986.1 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Health impacts of climate change on smallholder farmers
Talukder, B., van Loon, G. W., Hipel, K. W., CHIOTHA, S. S., & Orbinski, J. (2021) · One Health · doi:10.1016/j.onehlt.2021.100258 · Cited by 83 · see citing works
Singh, M. S., Warren, R. A., & Jakob, C. (2019) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2019ms001686 · Cited by 52 · see citing works
Self-citationGertler, C. G., & O’Gorman, P. A. (2019) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1812312116 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
Feng, Y., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Romps, D. M., & Chambers, J. Q. (2023) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-35570-1 · Cited by 46 · see citing works
Global Climate Change and Pollen Aeroallergens
Davies, J. M., Berman, D. M., Beggs, P. J., Ramon, G. D., Peter, J., Katelaris, C. H., & Ziska, L. H. (2020) · Immunology and Allergy Clinics of North America · doi:10.1016/j.iac.2020.09.002 · Cited by 45 · see citing works
Convective Precipitation Efficiency Observed in the Tropics
Narsey, S., Jakob, C., Singh, M. S., Bergemann, M., Louf, V., Protat, A., & Williams, C. R. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2019gl085031 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationEnvironmental Controls on Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Precipitation Intensity
Schiro, K. A., Sullivan, S. C., Kuo, Y., Su, H., Gentine, P., Elsaesser, G. S., Jiang, J. H., & Neelin, J. D. (2020) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-20-0111.1 · Cited by 41 · see citing works
A Lagrangian Perspective on Tropical Anvil Cloud Lifecycle in Present and Future Climate
Gasparini, B., Rasch, P. J., Hartmann, D. L., Wall, C. J., & Dütsch, M. (2021) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2020jd033487 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Schumacher, V., SETZER, A. W., Saba, M. M. F., Naccarato, K. P., Mattos, E. V., & Justino, F. B. (2021) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108723 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
The Response of Tropical Organized Convection to El Niño Warming
Sullivan, S. C., Schiro, K. A., Stubenrauch, C. J., & Gentine, P. (2019) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2019jd031026 · Cited by 40 · see citing works
Eutrophication, Research and Management History of the Shallow Ypacaraí Lake (Paraguay)
Mazacotte, G. A. L. M., Hinegk, L., Salvadore, A., Zolezzi, G., Hölker, F., Domecq, R. M., Bocci, M., Carrer, S., Nat, L. D., Escribá, J., et al. (2018) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su10072426 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Sahu, R. K., Dadich, J., Tyagi, B., & Vissa, N. K. (2020) · Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics · doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105472 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Greater climate sensitivity implied by anvil cloud thinning
Sokol, A. B., Wall, C. J., & Hartmann, D. L. (2024) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/s41561-024-01420-6 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Future intensification of precipitation and wind gust associated thunderstorms over Lake Victoria
de Walle, J. V., Thiery, W., Brogli, R., Martius, O., Jakob Zscheischler, A., & van Lipzig, N. P. M. (2021) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2021.100391 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Zhou, W., & Xie, S. (2019) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-18-0330.1 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Cecchi, L., Scala, E., Caronni, S., Citterio, S., & Asero, R. (2020) · Clinical & Experimental Allergy · doi:10.1111/cea.13764 · Cited by 27 · see citing works
Convection and Climate: What Have We Learned from Simple Models and Simplified Settings?
Hartmann, D. L., Blossey, P. N., & Dygert, B. D. (2019) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00136-9 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Cloud ice fraction governs lightning rate at a global scale
Han, Y., Luo, H., Wu, Y., Zhang, Y., & Dong, W. (2021) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00233-4 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Climate change and allergy in Australia: an innovative, high-income country, at potential risk
Beggs, P. J. (2018) · Public Health Research & Practice · doi:10.17061/phrp2841828 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
O’Gorman, P. A., Li, Z., Boos, W. R., & Yuval, J. (2021) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences · doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0543 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Sahu, R. K., Tyagi, B., Vissa, N. K., & Mohapatra, M. (2022) · MAUSAM · doi:10.54302/mausam.v73i3.1247 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Pruter, L. S., Weaver, M. A., & Brewer, M. J. (2020) · Journal of Integrated Pest Management · doi:10.1093/jipm/pmaa005 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Increased Occurrence of Large‐Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin
Muñoz, J. D. U., Trumbore, S. E., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Feng, Y., Brenning, A., Vasquez‐Parana, C. M., & Marra, D. M. (2024) · AGU Advances · doi:10.1029/2023av001030 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Singh, N., Singh, J., Gupta, A. K., Bräuning, A., Dimri, A. P., Ramanathan, A., Sharma, V., Tiwari, R. K., Chakraborty, J. S., Chauhan, P., et al. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ac14ed · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Marra, D. M., Feng, Y., Muñoz, J. D. U., Riley, W. J., & Chambers, J. Q. (2022) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acaf10 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Changes in hail hazard across Australia: 1979–2021
Raupach, T., Soderholm, J., Warren, R. A., & Sherwood, S. C. (2023) · npj Climate and Atmospheric Science · doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00454-8 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Dynamic and thermodynamic impacts of climate change on organized convection in Alaska
Poujol, B., Prein, A. F., Molina, M. J., & Muller, C. J. (2021) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05606-7 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Attribution of extreme events to climate change in the Australian region – A review
Lane, T. P., King, A. D., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., Pitman, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Arblaster, J. M., Bindoff, N. L., Bishop, C. H., Black, M., Bradstock, R. A., et al. (2023) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2023.100622 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Reanalyses and a High-Resolution Model Fail to Capture the “High Tail” of CAPE Distributions
Wang, Z., Franke, J., Luo, Z., & Moyer, E. J. (2021) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0278.1 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Ng, C., Zhang, Q., Li, W., & Zhou, Z. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0701.1 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
An Improved Instability–Shear Hail Proxy for Australia
Raupach, T., Soderholm, J., Protat, A., & Sherwood, S. C. (2022) · Monthly Weather Review · doi:10.1175/mwr-d-22-0127.1 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Midlatitude Continental CAPE Is Predictable From Large‐Scale Environmental Parameters
Li, F., & Chavas, D. R. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl091799 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Ascending Columns, WTG, and Convective Aggregation
Romps, D. M. (2020) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-20-0041.1 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
On the Interaction between Moist Convection and Large-Scale Ascent in the Tropics
Singh, M. S., & Neogi, S. (2022) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-21-0717.1 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Self-citationThunderstorm frequency distribution and associated convective mechanisms over Pakistan
Ahmed, R., Latif, M., Adnan, S., & Abuzar, M. K. (2018) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2619-x · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Brown, A., Dowdy, A. J., & Lane, T. P. (2024) · Natural hazards and earth system sciences · doi:10.5194/nhess-24-3225-2024 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Wahiduzzaman, M., Ali, M. A., Luo, J., Wang, Y., Uddin, M. J., Shahid, S., Islam, A. R. M. T., Mondal, S. K., Siddiki, U. R., Bilal, M., et al. (2021) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03833-4 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Potential Weakening of the June 2012 North American Derecho Under Future Warming Conditions
Li, J., Qian, Y., Leung, L.-Y. R., Chen, X., Yang, Z., & Feng, Z. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd037494 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Changes in Tropical Precipitation Intensity With El Niño Warming
Sullivan, S. C., Schiro, K. A., Yin, J., & Gentine, P. (2020) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2020gl087663 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Wing, A. A., & Singh, M. S. (2024) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2023ms003914 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationPast and future rainfall change in sub-regions of Victoria, Australia
RAUNIYAR, S. P., & Power, S. B. (2023) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03562-9 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Pandidurai, D., Attada, R., Chakraborty, R., Kumari, A., & Kumar, P. (2025) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07641-8 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Malik, S., Ahmed, R., Latif, M., Azam, M., Haroon, E., & Iqbal, M. B. (2021) · Theoretical and Applied Climatology · doi:10.1007/s00704-021-03709-7 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Ye, W., Yu, Y., & Cao, J. (2024) · International Journal of Climatology · doi:10.1002/joc.8473 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Changes in Hail Damage Potential in Major Australian Cities With Global Warming
Raupach, T., & Aldridge, J. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2025gl117676 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Modeling Lightning Activity in the Third Pole Region: Performance of a km-Scale ICON-CLM Simulation
Singh, P., & Ahrens, B. (2023) · Atmosphere · doi:10.3390/atmos14111655 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Wang, L., Lu, J., & Kuang, Z. (2018) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl078495 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Self-citationJeon, J., Yeh, S., Song, S., Kirtman, B. P., & Kim, D. (2023) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2022jd037973 · Cited by 5 · see citing works
Case Studies of Forest Windthrows and Mesoscale Convective Systems in Amazonia
Feng, Y., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Chiang, J. C. H., & Chambers, J. Q. (2023) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2023gl104395 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Ma, C., Yuan, W., & Ji, N. (2020) · Advances in Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s00376-020-9236-1 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Impacts of Climate Change on Organized Convection in Alaska
Poujol, B., Prein, A. F., Muller, C. J., & Molina, M. J. (2021) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5942 · Cited by 4 · see citing works
Fathrio, I., Trismidianto, Satiadi, D., Risyanto, R., Praja, A. S., Purwaningsih, A., Sinatra, T., Nugroho, G. A., Awaludin, A., Nugroho, D., et al. (2025) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-025-07871-w · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?
Gabriel, V. M. D. S., Quirós, M. D. M. M., & Quirós, J. L. M. (2021) · Sustainability · doi:10.3390/su13095024 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
The association between weather warnings and hip fractures in the Republic of Ireland
Stanley, C., Lennon, D. T., Moriarty, F., Sheridan, G. A., Nagle, M., Foley, A., Moran, C. J., & Donnelly, M. P. (2023) · Archives of Osteoporosis · doi:10.1007/s11657-023-01243-9 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Nie, J., Xia, Y., Hu, S., Yuan, W., Yang, J., & Ma, D. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl081867 · Cited by 2 · see citing works
Mahavik, N., Kangerd, A., Kunwilai, J., & Arthayakun, S. (2025) · Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1007/s13143-025-00420-9 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Liu, J., Chen, J., Sippel, S., Yin, J., King, A. D., & Zhou, S. (2026) · Weather and Climate Extremes · doi:10.1016/j.wace.2026.100908 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Increasing atmospheric dryness and storms accelerates biomass turnover in Amazonian forests
Wu, D., Zhou, Y., Feng, Y., Gora, E. M., Longo, M., Negrón-Juárez, R. I., Saatchi, S. S., Liu, Y., Ma, Y., Morton, D. C., et al. (2026) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-026-02639-4 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Exploring the Thunderstorm Predictors in Indonesia
Sagita, N., & Takemi, T. (2024) · SOLA · doi:10.2151/sola.2025-007 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Sullivan, S. C., Vautravers, P., Beucler, T., Makgoale, T., & Yin, J. (2025) · Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences · doi:10.1175/jas-d-24-0174.1 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Analisis Efek global warming terhadap perubahan iklim
Andarini, S. Y. (2023) · Jurnal Phi Jurnal Pendidikan Fisika dan Fisika Terapan · doi:10.22373/p-jpft.v4i2.15549 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Natura Fecit Saltum: Punctuationalism Pervades the Natural Sciences
Wallis, G. P. (2018) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-95954-2_19
Regional Frequency Analysis Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events under Climate Change
Yang, Z. (2020) · UWSpace (University of Waterloo)
Zhou, Y., Gong, H., Fan, P., Li, N., & Gu, L. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe1f4
Brown, A. S. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-322-ac2
Brown, A. (2024) · doi:10.5194/egusphere-2024-322-ac1
Tran, H. K., & Petty, G. W. (2024) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2024jd041705
Entrainment and the tropical tropospheric thermal structure in global climate models
Palmer, L. A., & Singh, M. S. (2025) · Weather and Climate Dynamics · doi:10.5194/wcd-6-1565-2025
Self-citationBalakrishnan, S., Mohan, M., & Mohapatra, M. (2026) · Journal of Earth System Science · doi:10.1007/s12040-025-02708-w
Spatial analysis of lightning activity during severe convection events in Johor, Malaysia
Bahari, N., Esa, M. R. M., Azmy, S. N., Abdullah, N., & Hatta, N. M. (2026) · Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics · doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106855
- Authors
- Singh, M. S., Kuang, Z., Maloney, E. D., Hannah, W. M., & Wolding, B. O.
- Affiliations
- Monash University (AU)
- Harvard University (US)
- Colorado State University (US)
- Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (US)
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2017-10-16
- Volume
- 114
- Issue
- 44
- Pages
- 11657-11662
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5676896
- OpenAlex
- W2766890177
- Cited by
- 79
- References
- 45
- Citations by year
- 2026: 4 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 11 · 2023: 11 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 5
- FWCI
- 4.55
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2018-01-02)
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Monash University Research Portal (Monash University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (AGS-1552385, AGS-1441916)
- DOC | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA13OAR4310163, NA15OAR4310099, NA12OAR4310077)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Keywords
- convective available potential energy, global warming, convective entrainment, climate change projections
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
