Empirical evidence for resilience of tropical forest photosynthesis in a warmer world
Open accessAbstract
Tropical forests may be vulnerable to climate change 1-3 if photosynthetic carbon uptake currently operates near a high temperature limit 4-6. Predicting tropical forest function requires understanding the relative contributions of two mechanisms of high-temperature photosynthetic declines: stomatal limitation (H1), an indirect response due to temperature-associated changes in atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD)7, and biochemical restrictions (H2), a direct temperature response 8,9. Their relative control predicts different outcomes-H1 is expected to diminish with stomatal responses to future co-occurring elevated atmospheric [CO 2], whereas H2 portends declining photosynthesis with increasing temperatures. Distinguishing the two mechanisms at high temperatures is therefore critical, but difficult because VPD is highly correlated with temperature in natural settings. We used a forest mesocosm to quantify the sensitivity of tropical gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) to future temperature regimes while constraining VPD by controlling humidity. We then analytically decoupled temperature and VPD effects under current climate with flux-tower-derived GEP trends in situ from four tropical forest sites. Both approaches showed consistent, negative sensitivity of GEP to VPD but little direct response to temperature. Importantly, in the mesocosm at low VPD, GEP persisted up to 38 °C, a temperature exceeding projections for tropical forests in 2100 (ref. 10). If elevated [CO 2] mitigates VPD-induced stomatal limitation through enhanced water-use efficiency as hypothesized 9,11, tropical forest photosynthesis may have a margin of resilience to future warming.
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Past drought periods also coincided with cooler temperatures, which probably reduced water demand by trees.
“However, these periods also coincided with cooler temperatures20,21, which probably reduced water demand by trees30.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [30]
The available indexed passage contains only the paper’s title and bibliographic details, with no section or page text addressing this claim. Searches for cooler temperatures during drought and reduced tree water demand found no relevant passage, so our copy cannot verify what the citation attributes to this source. (LLM, conf=0.70)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measuredThese climatic conditions could expose the forest to unprecedented levels of vapour pressure deficit and consequently water stress.
“These climatic conditions could expose the forest to unprecedented levels of vapour pressure deficit31 and consequently water stress30.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [30]
No passage from our copy addresses unprecedented vapour pressure deficit or consequent water stress. Searches for those terms and related phrasing returned no relevant passage; the only returned text was project and citation metadata, not a finding from the paper. (LLM, conf=0.68)
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Cites
Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts
Longo, M., Knox, R. G., Levine, N. M., Alves, L. F., Bonal, D., Camargo, P. B., Fitzjarrald, D. R., Hayek, M. N., Restrepo‐Coupe, N., Saleska, S. R., et al. (2018) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.15185 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
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Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Self-citationTropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
Doughty, C. E., Keany, J. M., Wiebe, B. C., Rey-Sanchez, C., Carter, K. R., Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Goulden, M. L., da Rocha, H. R., Miller, S. D., et al. (2023) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06391-z · Cited by 247 · see citing works
- Authors
- Smith, M. N., Taylor, T. C., van Haren, J., Rosolem, R., Restrepo-Coupe, N., Adams, J., Wu, J., de Oliveira, R. C., da Silva, R., de Araujo, A. C., de Camargo, P. B., Huxman, T. E., & Saleska, S. R.
- Affiliations
- University of Arizona (US)
- University of Bristol (GB)
- University of Hong Kong (HK)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- Corresponding author
- Smith, Marielle N.
- Saleska, Scott R.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Plants
- Published
- 2020-10-12
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 10
- Pages
- 1225-1230
- ISSN
- 2055-026X (ISSN-L)
- 2055-0278
- OpenAlex
- W3092228062
- Cited by
- 135
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 20 · 2025: 16 · 2024: 24 · 2023: 24 · 2022: 35 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 2
- FWCI
- 6.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Plants (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Explore Bristol Research (publishedVersion, other-oa)
- UA Campus Repository (The University of Arizona) (acceptedVersion)
- Bristol Research (University of Bristol) (acceptedVersion, other-oa)
- UTS ePRESS (University of Technology Sydney) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (NSF‐PRFB‐1711997, OISE-0730305)
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX14AK95H, NNX09AO33H, NNX09AL52G)
- RCUK | Natural Environment Research Council (NE/M003086/1, NE/R004897/1)
- U.S. Department of Energy (NGEE_Tropics, 3002937712)
- Philecological Foundation University of Arizona’s Agnese Nelms Haury Program in Environment and Social Justice
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Plant Science › Plant responses to elevated CO2
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Photosynthetic Processes and Mechanisms
- Keywords
- gross ecosystem productivity, stomatal limitation, vapor pressure deficit, temperature sensitivity, elevated CO2, water use efficiency, climate resilience, humidity control, ecosystem carbon uptake
- MeSH terms
- Atmospheric Pressure, Humidity, Photosynthesis, Temperature, Trees, Tropical Climate, Ecosystem, Climate Change, Rainforest
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