Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
Open accessAbstract
The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (T crit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed T crit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding T crit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of T crit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions 2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity 3,4.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity and causing widespread leaf damage.
“Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity36 and causing widespread leaf damage34.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome, exposing the forest and local peoples to potentially unbearable heat.
“Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2), exposing the forest34 and local peoples35 to potentially unbearable heat.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Photosynthetic Response and Adaptation to Temperature in Higher Plants
Berry, J., & Bjorkman, O. (1980) · Annual Review of Plant Physiology · doi:10.1146/annurev.pp.31.060180.002423 · Cited by 3,063 · see citing works
Why Mountain Passes are Higher in the Tropics
Janzen, D. H. (1967) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/282487 · Cited by 2,056 · see citing works
Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest
Phillips, O. L., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Lewis, S. L., Fisher, J. B., Lloyd, J., López‐González, G., Malhi, Y. S., Monteagudo, A. L., Peacock, J., Quesada, C. A., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1164033 · Cited by 1,854 · see citing works
Self-citationGillespie, A. R., Rokugawa, S., Matsunaga, T., Cothern, J. S., Hook, S. J., & Kahle, A. B. (1998) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/36.700995 · Cited by 1,464 · see citing works
Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change
Gatti, L. V., Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Gatti Domingues, L., Cassol, H. L. G., Tejada, G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Nobre, C., Peters, W., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6 · Cited by 1,081 · see citing works
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests
Hubau, W., Lewis, S. L., Phillips, O. L., Affum‐Baffoe, K., Beeckman, H., Cuní‐Sanchez, A., Daniels, A. K., Ewango, C. E. N., Fauset, S., Mukinzi, J. M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0 · Cited by 968 · see citing works
Self-citationClimate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J., O'Neill, B., Sanderson, B., et al. (2020) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021 · Cited by 736 · see citing works
Death from drought in tropical forests is triggered by hydraulics not carbon starvation
Rowland, L. M., da Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D. R., Oliveira, R. S., Binks, O. J., de Oliveira, A. A. R., Pullen, A. M., Doughty, C. E., Metcalfe, D. B., Vasconcelos, S. S., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15539 · Cited by 698 · see citing works
Self-citationJimenez-Munoz, J. C., Mattar, C., Barichivich, J., Santamaría-Artigas, A., Takahashi, K. I., Malhi, Y. S., Sobrino, J. A., & van der Schrier, G. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep33130 · Cited by 675 · see citing works
Self-citationDrought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia
Doughty, C. E., Metcalfe, D. B., Girardin, C. A. J., Amézquita, F. F., Galiano, D., Huasco, W. H., Silva‐Espejo, J. E., Araujo‐Murakami, A., da Costa, M. C., Rocha, W., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14213 · Cited by 645 · see citing works
Self-citationFisher, J. B., Lee, B., Purdy, A. J., Halverson, G. H., Dohlen, M. B., Cawse‐Nicholson, K., Wang, A., Anderson, R. G., Aragon, B., Arain, M. A., et al. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr026058 · Cited by 507 · see citing works
Self-citationSEASONALITY OF WATER AND HEAT FLUXES OVER A TROPICAL FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA
da Rocha, H. R., Goulden, M. L., Miller, S. D., Menton, M., Pinto, L. D., de Freitas, H. C., & Figueira, A. M. E. S. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6001 · Cited by 444 · see citing works
Self-citationDrake, J. E., Tjoelker, M. G., Vårhammar, A., Medlyn, B. E., Reich, P. B., Leigh, A., Pfautsch, S., Blackman, C. J., López, R., Aspinwall, M. J., et al. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14037 · Cited by 427 · see citing works
Self-citationda Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D. R., de Almeida, S. S., Portela, B. T. T., Costa, M., Silva, J. D. A., Braga, A. P., Gonçalves, P. H. L., de Oliveira, A. A., Fisher, R. A., et al. (2010) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03309.x · Cited by 364 · see citing works
Are tropical forests near a high temperature threshold?
Doughty, C. E., & Goulden, M. L. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jg000632 · Cited by 343 · see citing works
Self-citationDIEL AND SEASONAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL FOREST CO 2 EXCHANGE
Goulden, M. L., Miller, S. D., da Rocha, H. R., Menton, M., de Freitas, H. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., & de Sousa, C. A. D. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6008 · Cited by 340 · see citing works
Self-citationThermal limits of leaf metabolism across biomes
O’Sullivan, O. S., Heskel, M., Reich, P. B., Tjoelker, M. G., Weerasinghe, L. K., Penillard, A., Zhu, L., Egerton, J. J. G., Bloomfield, K. J., Creek, D., et al. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13477 · Cited by 339 · see citing works
Kealy, P. S., & Hook, S. J. (1993) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/36.317447 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
Jin, M. S., & Liang, S. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3720.1 · Cited by 253 · see citing works
Hulley, G., & Hook, S. J. (2010) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2010.2063034 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
BIOMETRIC AND MICROMETEOROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS OF TROPICAL FOREST CARBON BALANCE
Miller, S. D., Goulden, M. L., Menton, M., da Rocha, H. R., de Freitas, H. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., & de Sousa, C. A. D. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6005 · Cited by 221 · see citing works
Self-citationEmerging satellite observations for diurnal cycling of ecosystem processes
Xiao, J., Fisher, J. B., Hashimoto, H., Ichii, K., & Parazoo, N. C. (2021) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-021-00952-8 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Self-citationHulley, G., Göttsche, F.-M., Rivera, G., Hook, S. J., Freepartner, R. J., Martin, M., Cawse-Nicholson, K. A., & Johnson, W. R. (2021) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2021.3079879 · Cited by 181 · see citing works
Krause, G. H., Winter, K., Krause, B., Jahns, P., García, M., Aranda, J., & Virgo, A. (2010) · Functional Plant Biology · doi:10.1071/fp10034 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Reduced impact logging minimally alters tropical rainforest carbon and energy exchange
Miller, S. D., Goulden, M. L., Hutyra, L. R., Keller, M., SALESKA, S. R., Wofsy, S. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., da Rocha, H. R., & de Camargo, P. B. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1105068108 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Self-citationSlot, M., Cala, D. S., Aranda, J., Virgo, A., Michaletz, S. T., & Winter, K. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14060 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Self-citationFauset, S., de Freitas, H. C., Galbraith, D. R., Sullivan, M. J. P., Aidar, M. P. M., Joly, C. A., Phillips, O. L., Vieira, S. A., & Gloor, M. U. (2018) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13208 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Self-citationEmpirical evidence for resilience of tropical forest photosynthesis in a warmer world
Smith, M. N., Taylor, T. C., van Haren, J., Rosolem, R., Restrepo-Coupe, N., Adams, J., Wu, J., de Oliveira, R. C., da Silva, R., de Araujo, A. C., et al. (2020) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-020-00780-2 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
Large scale tropical deforestation drives extreme warming
Zeppetello, L. R. V., Parsons, L. A., Spector, J. T., Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Masuda, Y. J., & Wolff, N. H. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d2 · Cited by 106 · see citing works
The Thermal Tolerances, Distributions, and Performances of Tropical Montane Tree Species
Feeley, K. J., Martínez‐Villa, J. A., Perez, T. M., Duque, A. S., Gonzalez, D. T., & Duque, Á. (2020) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2020.00025 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Spatial and temporal patterns of the recent warming of the Amazon forest
Jimenez-Munoz, J. C., Sobrino, J. A., Mattar, C., & Malhi, Y. S. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50456 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citationTiwari, R., Gloor, E. U., da Cruz, W. J. A., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Reis, S. M., Araújo, I., Krause, H., Slot, M., Winter, K., et al. (2020) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13770 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Self-citationImaging canopy temperature: shedding (thermal) light on ecosystem processes
Still, C. J., Rastogi, B., Page, G. F. M., Griffith, D. M., Sibley, A. M., Schulze, M., Hawkins, L., Pau, S., Detto, M., & Helliker, B. R. (2021) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.17321 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
A model for leaf temperature decoupling from air temperature
Blonder, B. W., & Michaletz, S. T. (2018) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.012 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
An In Situ Leaf and Branch Warming Experiment in the Amazon
Doughty, C. E. (2011) · Biotropica · doi:10.1111/j.1744-7429.2010.00746.x · Cited by 81 · see citing works
Self-citationSpatial and seasonal variation in leaf temperature within the canopy of a tropical forest
Rey‐Sánchez, C., Slot, M., Posada, J. M., & Kitajima, K. (2016) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr01427 · Cited by 76 · see citing works
Self-citationPhotosynthetic heat tolerance of shade and sun leaves of three tropical tree species
Slot, M., Krause, G. H., Krause, B., Hernández, G. G., & Winter, K. (2018) · Photosynthesis Research · doi:10.1007/s11120-018-0563-3 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Self-citationTrees at the Amazonia-Cerrado transition are approaching high temperature thresholds
Araújo, I., Marimon, B. S., Scalon, M. C., Fauset, S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Tiwari, R., Galbraith, D. R., & Gloor, M. U. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe3b9 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Self-citationThermal safety margins of plant leaves across biomes under a heatwave
Kitudom, N., Fauset, S., Zhou, Y., Fan, Z., Li, M., He, M., Zhang, S., Xu, K., & Lin, H. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150416 · Cited by 54 · see citing works
Self-citationDickman, L. T., McDowell, N. G., Grossiord, C., Collins, A. D., Wolfe, B. T., Detto, M., Wright, S. J., Medina‐Vega, J. A., Goodsman, D. W., Rogers, A., et al. (2018) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13501 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Carter, K., Wood, T. E., Reed, S. C., Butts, K. M., & Cavaleri, M. A. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14134 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Self-citationCrous, K. Y., Cheesman, A. W., Middleby, K. B., Rogers, E. I. E., Wujeska‐Klause, A., Bouet, A. Y. M., Ellsworth, D. S., Liddell, M. J., Cernusak, L. A., & Barton, C. V. M. (2023) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/tpad054 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Self-citationGuha, A., Vharachumu, T., Khalid, M. F., Keeley, M., Avenson, T. J., & Vincent, C. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14215 · Cited by 24 · see citing works
Kivalov, S. N., & Fitzjarrald, D. R. (2019) · Boundary-Layer Meteorology · doi:10.1007/s10546-019-00460-5 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Tiwari, R., Gloor, E. U., da Cruz, W. J. A., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Reis, S. M., de Souza, I., Krause, G. H., Slot, M., Winter, K., et al. (2020) · doi:10.22541/au.158136983.31779076 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Self-citationAchchige, Y. M. S., Volkova, L., Drinnan, A. N., & Weston, C. J. (2020) · Journal of Plant Ecology · doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaa081 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
SMAP L4 9 km EASE-Grid Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Geophysical Data, Version 3
Reichle, R. H., De Lannoy, G., Koster, R., Crow, W. T., & Kimball, J. (2017) · Earth Observing System Data and Information System · doi:10.5067/b59dt1d5umb4 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
- Wilson, E. & Raven, P. in Biodiversity (ed. Wilson, E. O.) Ch. 3 (National Academy Press, 1988).
- Sachs, J. Über die obere temperaturgränze der vegetation. Flora 47, 5–12 (1864).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events
Bolan, S. S., Padhye, L. P., Jasemizad, T., Govarthanan, M., Karmegam, N., Wijesekara, H., Amarasiri, D., Hou, D., Zhou, P., Biswal, B. K., et al. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168388 · Cited by 721 · see citing works
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607 · see citing works
Slot, M., Rifai, S. W., Eze, C. E., & Winter, K. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19806 · Cited by 90 · see citing works
Self-citationTen new insights in climate science 2024
Schaeffer, R., Schipper, E. L. F., Ospina, D., Mirazo, P., Alencar, A. A. C., Anvari, M., Artaxo, P. E., Biresselioğlu, M. E., Blome, T., Boeckmann, M., et al. (2025) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101285 · Cited by 82 · see citing works
Pierrat, Z., Magney, T. S., Richardson, W., Runkle, B. R. K., Diehl, J. L., Yang, X., Woodgate, W., Smith, W. K., Johnston, M. R., Ginting, Y. R. S., et al. (2025) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20405 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Self-citationUstin, S. L., & Middleton, E. M. (2024) · Sensors · doi:10.3390/s24113488 · Cited by 56 · see citing works
Gauthey, A., Kahmen, A., Limousin, J., Vilagrosa, A., Didion‐Gency, M., Mas, E., Milano, A., Corzón, Á. T., & Grossiord, C. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17439 · Cited by 51 · see citing works
Litter decomposition rate response to multiple global change factors: A meta-analysis
Liu, Y., Zhang, A., Li, X., Kuang, W., & Islam, W. (2024) · Soil Biology and Biochemistry · doi:10.1016/j.soilbio.2024.109474 · Cited by 49 · see citing works
Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., & Cernusak, L. A. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19822 · Cited by 47 · see citing works
Self-citationKullberg, A. T., Coombs, L. E., Ahuanari, R. D. S., Fortier, R. P., & Feeley, K. J. (2023) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19413 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Zhang, S., Hao, X., Zhao, Z., Zhang, J., Fan, X. W., & Li, X. (2023) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2023ef003903 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Synthesis of the land carbon fluxes of the Amazon region between 2010 and 2020
Rosan, T. M., Sitch, S. A., O’Sullivan, M., Basso, L. S., Wilson, C., Silva, C., Gloor, E., Fawcett, D., Heinrich, V., Souza, J. G., et al. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01205-0 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationChallenges and Future Directions in Quantifying Terrestrial Evapotranspiration
Yi, K., Senay, G. B., Fisher, J. B., Wang, L., Suvočarev, K., Chu, H., Moore, G. W., Novick, K. A., Barnes, M. L., Keenan, T. F., et al. (2024) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2024wr037622 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationIntensive leaf cooling promotes tree survival during a record heatwave
Posch, B. C., Bush, S. E., Koepke, D. F., Schuessler, A., Anderegg, L. D. L., Aparecido, L. M. T., Blonder, B. W., Guo, J., Kerr, K. L., Moran, M. E., et al. (2024) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2408583121 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Self-citationShifting, expanding, or contracting? Range movement consequences for biodiversity
Brodie, J. F., Freeman, B. G., Mannion, P. D., & Hargreaves, A. L. (2025) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2025.02.001 · Cited by 44 · see citing works
Global prediction of gross primary productivity under future climate change
Lu, Q., Liu, H., Wei, L., Zhong, Y., & Zhou, Z. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169239 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Forest mosaics, not savanna corridors, dominated in Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum
Hamilton, R. J., Amano, N., Bradshaw, C. J. A., Saltré, F., Patalano, R., Penny, D., Stevenson, J., Wolfhagen, J., & Roberts, P. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2311280120 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Novel temperatures are already widespread beneath the world’s tropical forest canopies
Trew, B. T., Edwards, D. P., Lees, A. C., Klinges, D. H., Early, R., Svátek, M., Plichta, R., Matula, R., Okello, J., Niessner, A., et al. (2024) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-024-02031-0 · Cited by 43 · see citing works
Canopy temperatures strongly overestimate leaf thermal safety margins of tropical trees
Manzi, O. J. L., Wittemann, M., Dusenge, M. E., Habimana, J., Manishimwe, A., Mujawamariya, M., Ntirugulirwa, B., Zibera, E., Tarvainen, L., Nsabimana, D., et al. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20013 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Zhu, L., Scafaro, A. P., Vierling, E., Ball, M. C., Posch, B. C., Stock, F., & Atkin, O. K. (2023) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19356 · Cited by 39 · see citing works
Contrasting heat tolerance of evergreen and deciduous urban woody species during heat waves
Zhang, H., Ning, Q., Li, Q., Jin, Y., Cao, Y., Bakpa, E. P., Zhao, H., Song, J., Ye, P., Wen, Y., et al. (2024) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14562 · Cited by 37 · see citing works
Linking plant functional traits to biodiversity under environmental change
Liu, H., Yin, D., He, P., Cadotte, M. W., & Ye, Q. (2024) · Biological Diversity · doi:10.1002/bod2.12004 · Cited by 36 · see citing works
Sur, K., Verma, V. K., Panwar, P., Shukla, G., Chakravarty, S., & Nath, A. J. (2024) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2024.1382557 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming
Li, X., Huntingford, C., Wang, K., Cui, J., Xu, H., Kan, F., Anniwaer, N., Yang, H., Peñuelas, J., & Piao, S. L. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17406 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Tipping Points of Amazonian Forests: Beyond Myths and Toward Solutions
Brando, P. M., Barlow, J., Macedo, M. N., Silvério, D. V., Ferreira, J., Maracahipes, L., Anderson, L. O., Morton, D. C., Alencar, A. A. C., Paolucci, L. N., et al. (2025) · Annual Review of Environment and Resources · doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-111522-112804 · Cited by 33 · see citing works
Krishankant, Aashi, Jain, A., Sharma, J., Rani, R., Bera, C., & Bagchi, V. (2024) · ACS Applied Energy Materials · doi:10.1021/acsaem.3c02468 · Cited by 32 · see citing works
Amazon deforestation implications in local/regional climate change
Artaxo, P. E. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2317456120 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Zeng, X., Berdugo, M., Sáez‐Sandino, T., Tao, D., Ren, T., Zhou, G., Liu, Y., Terrer, C., Reich, P. B., & Delgado‐Baquerizo, M. (2025) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2413981122 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Drivers and solutions to Southeast Asia’s biodiversity crisis
Struebig, M. J., Lee, J. S. H., Deere, N. J., Gevaña, D. T., Ingram, D. J., Lwin, N., Nguyen, T. H. T., Santika, T., Seaman, D. J. I., Supriatna, J., et al. (2025) · Nature Reviews Biodiversity · doi:10.1038/s44358-025-00064-7 · Cited by 31 · see citing works
Wu, T., Tissue, D. T., Jiang, M., Slot, M., Crous, K. Y., Yuan, J., Liu, J., Jin, S., Wu, C., Deng, Y., et al. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70026 · Cited by 30 · see citing works
Self-citationIncreasing Optimum Temperature of Vegetation Activity Over the Past Four Decades
Wang, Y., Sarmah, S., Singha, M., Chen, W., Ge, Y., Liáng, L., Goswami, S., & Niu, S. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004489 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Aboveground biomass in Australian tropical forests now a net carbon source
Carle, H. J., Bauman, D., Evans, M. N., Coughlin, I., Binks, O. J., Ford, A. J., Bradford, M., Nicotra, A. B., Murphy, H., & Meir, P. (2025) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-025-09497-8 · Cited by 29 · see citing works
Atmospheric drought indices in future projections
Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Domínguez‐Castro, F., Beguerı́a, S., Kenawy, A. E., Gimeno‐Sotelo, L., Franquesa, M., Azorín-Molina, C., Andrés-Martín, M., & Halifa‐Marín, A. (2025) · Nature Water · doi:10.1038/s44221-025-00416-9 · Cited by 28 · see citing works
Evidence for widespread thermal acclimation of canopy photosynthesis
Liu, J., Ryu, Y., Luo, X., Dechant, B., Stocker, B. D., Keenan, T. F., Gentine, P., Li, X., Li, B., Harrison, S. P., et al. (2024) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-024-01846-1 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Reek, J. E., Crowther, T. W., Lauber, T., Schemm, S., Parastatidis, D., Chrysoulakis, N., Huang, M., Piao, S. L., Zohner, C. M., & Smith, G. R. (2025) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02626-1 · Cited by 26 · see citing works
Rao, Z., Zhao, X., & Gong, X. N. (2024) · Small · doi:10.1002/smll.202406348 · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Chen, Y., Zhu, Z., Zhao, W., Li, M., Cao, S., Zheng, Y., Tian, F., & Myneni, R. B. (2023) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad107f · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Hotter is not (always) better: Embracing unimodal scaling of biological rates with temperature
Michaletz, S. T., & Garen, J. C. (2024) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.14381 · Cited by 22 · see citing works
Zeng, J., Li, X., Xing, L., Chen, L., Li, Y., Wang, X., Zhang, Q., Yang, G., Ren, C., Yang, G., et al. (2024) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14626 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Kullberg, A. T., & Feeley, K. J. (2024) · Functional Ecology · doi:10.1111/1365-2435.14657 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Winter, K., Nuñez, C. R. K., Slot, M., & Virgo, A. (2024) · Plant Biology · doi:10.1111/plb.13732 · Cited by 20 · see citing works
Self-citationHikosaka, K., Onoda, Y., & Kitajima, K. (2025) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-025-05734-z · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Tropical root responses to global changes: A synthesis
Yaffar, D., Lugli, L. F., Wong, M. Y., Norby, R. J., Addo-Danso, S. D., Arnaud, M., Cordeiro, A. L., Dietterich, L. H., Díaz‐Toribio, M. H., Lee, M. Y., et al. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17420 · Cited by 19 · see citing works
Yadav, V., Zhong, H., Patel, M. K., Zhang, S., Zhou, X., Zhang, C., Zhang, J., Su, J., Zhang, F., & Wu, X. (2024) · Plant Stress · doi:10.1016/j.stress.2024.100356 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
The role of thermodiffusion in transpiration
Griffani, D. S., Rognon, P., & Farquhar, G. D. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19642 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Retrieval of global surface soil and vegetation temperatures based on multisource data fusion
Liu, X., Li, Z.-L., Duan, S., Leng, P., & Si, M. (2024) · Remote Sensing of Environment · doi:10.1016/j.rse.2024.114564 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Climate Warming Alters Nutrient Cycling and its Constraint on CO2 Fertilization in Global Forests
Du, E., VRIES, W. D., Collalti, A., & Marco, A. D. (2025) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-025-00201-6 · Cited by 18 · see citing works
Impact of emerging compound droughts on forests: A water supply and demand perspective
Werner, C., Bahn, M., Grams, T. E. E., Grossiord, C., Haberstroh, S., Lenczner, G., Tuia, D., & Vallicrosa, H. (2025) · Plant Biology · doi:10.1111/plb.70080 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Crous, K. Y., Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Bouet, A. Y. M., Schiffer, M., Liddell, M. J., Barton, C. V. M., & Cernusak, L. A. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20320 · Cited by 17 · see citing works
Self-citationApplication of the thermal death time model in predicting thermal damage accumulation in plants
Faber, A. H., Ørsted, M., & Ehlers, B. (2024) · Journal of Experimental Botany · doi:10.1093/jxb/erae096 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Liu, A., Chen, Y., & Cheng, X. Y. (2025) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs17121968 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Are tropical forests approaching critical temperature thresholds?
Winter, K. (2024) · Plant Biology · doi:10.1111/plb.13638 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Akay, G. (2025) · Catalysts · doi:10.3390/catal15020105 · Cited by 16 · see citing works
Zeng, J., Zhang, Y. L., Pang, W., Ran, H., Guo, H., Lu, Y., Song, W., & Wang, X. (2025) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2025gl114767 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Natural world heritage sites are at risk from climate change globally
Chen, G., Fu, B., Jiang, Y., Suo, X., Lai, Y., Chen, Z., Li, J., Li, L., Lu, M., Tang, Y., et al. (2024) · Communications Earth & Environment · doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01933-3 · Cited by 15 · see citing works
Manzi, O. J. L., Mujawamariya, M., Tarvainen, L., Ziegler, C., Andersson, M. X., Dusenge, M. E., Fridell, A., Reese, H., Spetea, C., Uwizeye, F. K., et al. (2025) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.70079 · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Degradation and deforestation increase the sensitivity of the Amazon Forest to climate extremes
Longo, M., Keller, M., Kueppers, L. M., Bowman, K. W., Csillik, O., Ferraz, A., Moorcroft, P. R., Ometto, J. P., Soares-Filho, B. S., Xu, X., et al. (2025) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/adc58c · Cited by 14 · see citing works
Gong, E., Zhang, J., Wang, Z., Hu, Q., Bai, H., & Wang, J. (2025) · ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2025.09.018 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Clustered warming tolerances and the nonlinear risks of biodiversity loss on a warming planet
Williamson, J., Lu, M., Camus, M. F., Gregory, R. D., Maclean, I. M. D., Rocha, J., Saastamoinen, M., Wilson, R. J., Bridle, J. R., & Pigot, A. L. (2025) · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences · doi:10.1098/rstb.2023.0321 · Cited by 13 · see citing works
Zarakas, C. M., Swann, A. L. S., Koven, C. D., Smith, M. N., & Taylor, T. C. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17449 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Li, Y. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20184 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
Gao, Y., Zhu, D., Wang, Z., Lin, Z., Zhang, Y., & Wang, K. (2024) · Earth s Future · doi:10.1029/2024ef004798 · Cited by 12 · see citing works
High heat tolerance and thermal safety margins in mangroves from the southwestern coast of India
Naseef, A., Javad, A., Kausal, A. K., Barua, D., & Ashtamoorthy, S. K. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176366 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Cropland expansion drives vegetation greenness decline in Southeast Asia
Zhao, R., Luo, X., Yang, Y., Syahid, L. N., Chen, C., & Lee, J. S. H. (2024) · Biogeosciences · doi:10.5194/bg-21-5393-2024 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Photosynthetic responses to temperature across the tropics: a meta-analytic approach
Carter, K., Cavaleri, M. A., Atkin, O. K., Bahar, N. H. A., Cheesman, A. W., Choury, Z., Crous, K. Y., Doughty, C. E., Dusenge, M. E., Ely, K., et al. (2024) · Annals of Botany · doi:10.1093/aob/mcae206 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationNian, D., Bathiany, S., Sakschewski, B., Drüke, M., Blaschke, L. L., Ben‐Yami, M., von Bloh, W., & Boers, N. (2024) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.174378 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Multi-fold increase in rainforest tipping risk beyond 1.5–2 °C warming
Singh, C., van der Ent, R., Fetzer, I., & Wang‐Erlandsson, L. (2024) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-15-1543-2024 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Tropical forests and climate change
Corlett, R. T. (2024) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-443-14082-2.00056-9 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Measuring tropical rainforest resilience under non-Gaussian disturbances
Benson, V., Donges, J. F., Boers, N., Hirota, M., Morr, A., Staal, A., Vollmer, J., & Wunderling, N. (2024) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ad1e80 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Cook, K. H., Vizy, E. K., Andrews, P. C., & Zhao, S. (2024) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-24-0289.1 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Wang, N., Jiao, A., Xu, Y., Yang, Y., Cong, N., & Yao, W. (2025) · Journal of Plant Ecology · doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaf080 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Assessing Climate Impacts on Karst Vegetation Carbon Sink Change Worldwide
Luhua, 吴. W., Wei, H., Chen, D., Yang, D., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., Du, J., & Jia, J. (2025) · Ecosystem Health and Sustainability · doi:10.34133/ehs.0404 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Chu, Y., Guo, L., Yang, G., Xu, H., Li, T., He, X., Zheng, H., Yao, S., Liu, H., & He, B. (2025) · Global and Planetary Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105138 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Evapotranspiration Everywhere, All the Time: Towards a Unified View From Earth Observation
Fisher, J. B., Anderson, M. C., Miralles, D. G., Mallick, K., Stoy, P., Ryu, Y., & Bastiaanssen, W. G. M. (2026) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70898 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationLeponce, M., Basset, Y., Aristizábal‐Botero, Á., Baïben, N., Barbut, J., Buyck, B., Butterill, P. T., Calders, K., Cárdenas, G. G., Carrias, J., et al. (2024) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2024.1425492 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Hopkinson, R., Baker, L., Garavito, S. R., Breed, M. F., & Cernusak, L. A. (2024) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.15141 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Self-citationBrackett, A. E., Still, C. J., & Puettmann, K. J. (2024) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/cjfr-2023-0268 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Fernandes, V. D. A. B., Farnese, F. D. S., Arantes, B. R., da Silva, M. L. F., Silva, F. G., Ruiz, J. M. T., Slot, M., Cochard, H., & Menezes‐Silva, P. E. (2025) · PLANT PHYSIOLOGY · doi:10.1093/plphys/kiaf026 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Self-citationPervasive increase in tree mortality across the Australian continent
Lu, R., Williams, L. J., Trouvé, R., Murphy, B. P., Baker, P. J., Carle, H. J., Forrester, D. I., Green, P. T., Liddell, M. J., Marunda, C. T., et al. (2026) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-025-02188-2 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Yang, H., Zhong, C., Jin, T., Chen, J., Zhang, Z., Hu, Z., & Wu, K. (2024) · Remote Sensing · doi:10.3390/rs16193708 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Fortier, R. P., Kullberg, A. T., Ahuanari, R. D. S., Coombs, L. E., Ruzo, A., & Feeley, K. J. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17555 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
Zhu, Y., Murugesan, S. B., Masara, I., Myint, S. W., & Fisher, J. B. (2024) · Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1002/rse2.422 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationBeat the heat: need for research studying plant cell death induced by extreme temperatures
Kacprzyk, J., McCabe, P. F., & Ng, C. K. ‐. (2025) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.70045 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Cox, D., Marchin, R. M., Ellsworth, D. S., Wujeska‐Klause, A., Ossola, A., Crous, K. Y., Leishman, M. R., Rymer, P. D., & Tjoelker, M. G. (2025) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.70041 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationGaren, J. C., & Michaletz, S. T. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70474 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Fast response of satellite fluorescence-derived plant physiology to drought stress
Tang, Z., Miralles, D. G., Guo, Z., & Maes, W. H. (2026) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-026-70076-0 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Aashi, Chaudhuri, A., Krishankant, Pundir, V., Ahmed, Z., Bera, C., Bakli, C., & Bagchi, V. (2024) · ACS Sustainable Chemistry & Engineering · doi:10.1021/acssuschemeng.4c05046 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change
Hogan, J. A., Lichstein, J. W., Helmer, E. H., Craig, M. E., Fricke, E. C., Heinrich, V., Kannenberg, S. A., Koven, C. D., Goldewijk, K. K., Lapola, D. M., et al. (2024) · Plants People Planet · doi:10.1002/ppp3.10609 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Self-citationJavad, A., Premugh, V., Tiwari, R., Bandaru, P., Sunny, R., Hegde, B. A., Clerici, S. J., Galbraith, D. R., Gloor, M. U., & Barua, D. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70069 · Cited by 8 · see citing works
Pallavi, Röll, A., Marques, I., Ramadhani, D. N., Valdés‐Uribe, A., Hendrayanto, H., & Hölscher, D. (2024) · Global Ecology and Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2024.e03001 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Endris, J., & Rehm, E. M. (2024) · AoB Plants · doi:10.1093/aobpla/plae060 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Schneider, P. D., Geßler, A., & Stocker, B. D. (2025) · Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems · doi:10.1029/2024ms004789 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Local Adaptation Drives Leaf Thermoregulation in Tropical Rainforest Trees
Middleby, K. B., Jordan, R., Cheesman, A. W., Rossetto, M., Breed, M. F., Crayn, D. M., & Cernusak, L. A. (2025) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.70461 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Self-citationHydraulic properties and drought response of a tropical bamboo (Cephalostachyum pergracile)
Kongjarat, W., Han, L., Aritsara, A. N. A., Zhang, S., Zhao, G., Zhang, Y., Maenpuen, P., Li, Y., Zou, Y.-K., Li, M.-Y., et al. (2023) · Acta Botanica Yunnanica · doi:10.1016/j.pld.2023.12.003 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Xiahou, M., Shen, Z., Yang, T., Duan, J., Peng, M., Wang, C., & Ou, X. (2024) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110798 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Trew, B. T., Lees, A. C., Edwards, D. P., Early, R., & Maclean, I. M. D. (2024) · Conservation Letters · doi:10.1111/conl.13050 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Prospects for Neotropical Forest Birds and Their Habitats Under Contrasting Emissions Scenarios
Brawn, J. D., Luther, D., Qu, M., Farinelli, S. M., Cooper, W. J., & Fu, R. (2024) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.17544 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Zeng, J., Zhang, Y. L., Ran, H., Pang, W., Guo, H., Mu, Z., Song, W., & Wang, X. (2025) · Atmospheric measurement techniques · doi:10.5194/amt-18-1811-2025 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Alien plants and novel ecosystems in the Greater Tropics
Mungi, N. A., Galetti, M., Ratnam, J., Chala, D., Sanín, M. J., & Svenning, J. (2025) · Nature Reviews Biodiversity · doi:10.1038/s44358-025-00068-3 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Liu, X., Reich, P. B., Tissue, D. T., Zhou, G., Lie, Z., Wu, T., Zhou, S., Rocci, K. S., Xiao, M., Wu, G., et al. (2025) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101465 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
- Authors
- Doughty, C. E., Keany, J. M., Wiebe, B. C., Rey-Sanchez, C., Carter, K. R., Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Goulden, M. L., da Rocha, H. R., Miller, S. D., Malhi, Y., Fauset, S., Gloor, E., Slot, M., Oliveras Menor, I., Crous, K. Y., Goldsmith, G. R., & Fisher, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Michigan Technological University (US)
- James Cook University (AU)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- State University of New York (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
- Western Sydney University (AU)
- Chapman University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Doughty, Christopher E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2023-08-23
- Volume
- 621
- Issue
- 7977
- Pages
- 105-111
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4386099976
- Cited by
- 247
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 88 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 14 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 25.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- pearl.plymouth.ac.uk
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
- Chapman University Digital Commons (Chapman University) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Commons - Michigan Tech (Michigan Technological University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC19K0206, 80NSSC20K0216)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R005079/1, NE/V008366/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Photosynthetic Processes and Mechanisms
- Keywords
- tropical forests, critical temperature threshold, global warming, ECOSTRESS, tipping points, tree mortality, RCP8.5
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Sustainable Development, Australia, Brazil, Photosynthesis, Puerto Rico, Trees, Tropical Climate, Plant Leaves, Uncertainty, Extreme Heat, Global Warming, Forests
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
