The DOI matches its Crossref record; 57 of the 58 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C
Open accessOverview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Despite these substantial negative consequences, concerted action to halt GHG emissions has been inadequate (Rogelj et al 2018, den Elzen et al 2019).”
From Framing climate change for effective communication: a systematic map (2020) · cites this paper as Rogelj et al 2018
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., & Meehl, G. A. (2012) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00094.1 · Cited by 14,052
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016 · Cited by 11,981
The representative concentration pathways: an overview
van Vuuren, D. P., Edmonds, J., Kainuma, M., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Hibbard, K., Hurtt, G. C., Kram, T., Krey, V., Lamarque, J.-F., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z · Cited by 7,741
Self-citationRiahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 · Cited by 6,607
Self-citationThe next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., et al. (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08823 · Cited by 6,467
Self-citationThe Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., et al. (2016) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016 · Cited by 5,241
Self-citationJansen, E. H., Overpeck, J. T., Briffa, K., Duplessy, J., Joos, F., Masson-Delmotte, Olago, D., Otto‐Bliesner, B. L., Peltier, W. R., Rahmstorf, S., et al. (2007) · UEA Digital Repository (University of East Anglia) · Cited by 4,577
The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300
Meinshausen, M. A., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M., Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. A., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., et al. (2011) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z · Cited by 3,781
Self-citationO’Neill, B. C., Kriegler, E., Ebi, K. L., Kemp-Benedict, E., Riahi, K., Rothman, D. S., van Ruijven, B. J., van Vuuren, D. P., Birkmann, J., Kok, K., et al. (2017) · Global Environmental Change · doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004 · Cited by 3,359
Self-citationGreenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C
Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D. J., & Allen, M. R. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08017 · Cited by 2,775
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- Clarke, L. et al. Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 6, 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- Smith, P. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 11, 811–922 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 1–32 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) 1–33 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Negative emissions—Part 2: Costs, potentials and side effects
Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., de Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., et al. (2018) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f · Cited by 1,525
Self-citationHarmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6
Hurtt, G., Chini, L., Sahajpal, R., Frolking, S., Bodirsky, B., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Fisk, J., Fujimori, S., Goldewijk, K. K., et al. (2020) · Geoscientific Model Development · doi:10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020 · Cited by 713
Self-citationGrubler, A., Wilson, C., Bento, N., Boza-Kiss, B., Krey, V., McCollum, D. L., Rao, N. D., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., De Stercke, S., et al. (2018) · Nature Energy · doi:10.1038/s41560-018-0172-6 · Cited by 1,178
Self-citationA future for the world's children? A WHO–UNICEF–Lancet Commission
Clark, H., Coll-Seck, A. M., Banerjee, A., Peterson, S., Dalglish, S. L., Ameratunga, S., Balabanova, D., Bhan, M. K., Bhutta, Z. A., Borrazzo, J., et al. (2020) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(19)32540-1 · Cited by 1,105
(2019) · doi:10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019 · Cited by 1,093
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Rogelj, J., Popp, A., Calvin, K. V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S., Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Havlík, P., Humpenöder, F., Stehfest, E., & Tavoni, M.
- Affiliations
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (IT)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Corresponding author
- Rogelj, Joeri
- ORCID
- Rogelj, Joeri
- Popp, Alexander
- Calvin, Katherine V.
- Luderer, Gunnar
- Emmerling, Johannes
- Gernaat, David
- Fujimori, Shinichiro
- Strefler, Jessica
- Hasegawa, Tomoko
- Marangoni, Giacomo
- Krey, Volker
- Kriegler, Elmar
- Riahi, Keywan
- van Vuuren, Detlef P.
- Doelman, Jonathan
- Drouet, Laurent
- Edmonds, Jae
- Fricko, Oliver
- Harmsen, Mathijs
- Humpenöder, Florian
- Stehfest, Elke
- Tavoni, Massimo
- Venue
- Nature Climate Change
- Published
- 2018-03-05
- Volume
- 8
- Issue
- 4
- Pages
- 325-332
- ISSN
- 1758-678X (ISSN-L)
- 1758-6798
- OpenAlex
- W2789575745
- Cited by
- 1,341
- References
- 58
- Citations by year
- 2026: 120 · 2025: 171 · 2024: 177 · 2023: 185 · 2022: 191 · 2021: 201 · 2020: 113 · 2019: 111 · 2018: 69
- FWCI
- 187.76
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- bronze
- doi.org
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature Climate Change (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Virtual Community of Pathological Anatomy (University of Castilla La Mancha) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Utrecht University Repository (Utrecht University) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- European Commission (308329, 641816, HORIZON2020, 642147)
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (SPP ED 178/3-1)
- Ministry of Environment
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (16K18177)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- 1.5 °C warming target, global mean temperature increase, radiative forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, low-carbon energy, carbon dioxide removal, energy consumption reduction, fossil fuel consumption, climate policy, integrated assessment models, Paris Agreement
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
