The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment
Abstract
Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.
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Constant hydrogen disposal is essential for sustained fermentation in the rumen and the large intestines.
“Constant hydrogen disposal is essential for sustained fermentation in the rumen and the large intestines (Moss et al., 2010).”
From Comparative Analysis of the Microbiota Between Sheep Rumen and Rabbit Cecum Provides New Insight Into Their Differential Methane Production (2018) · cites this paper as Moss et al., 2010
IAMs are used to explore future societal pathways that are consistent with climate goals and play a prominent role in the IPCC assessments.
“IAMs are used to explore future societal pathways that are consistent with climate goals (e.g., 1.5 • C mean global temperature increase), and play a prominent role in the IPCC assessments [561].”
From Tackling climate change with machine learning (2023) · cites this paper as [561]
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- Authors
- Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., & Wilbanks, T. J.
- Affiliations
- Joint Global Change Research Institute (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Victoria University of Wellington (NZ)
- Electric Power Research Institute (US)
- Finnish Environment Institute (FI)
- National Institute for Environmental Studies (JP)
- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
- Met Office (GB)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- Stanford University (US)
- Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Moss, Richard H.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2010-02
- Volume
- 463
- Issue
- 7282
- Pages
- 747-756
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2054653365
- Cited by
- 6,467
- References
- 85
- Citations by year
- 2026: 158 · 2025: 232 · 2024: 355 · 2023: 426 · 2022: 491 · 2021: 609 · 2020: 509 · 2019: 512 · 2018: 529 · 2017: 524 · 2016: 448 · 2015: 496 · 2014: 400 · 2013: 381 · 2012: 223
- FWCI
- 222.96
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Licence
- www.springer.com/tdm (tdm)
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Climate Change Policy and Economics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
- Keywords
- climate change scenarios, scenario development, climate change projections, climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, uncertainty analysis, radiative forcing, interdisciplinary research coordination
- MeSH terms
- Vehicle Emissions, Ecology, Human Activities, Risk Assessment, Global Warming
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
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