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Weak average liquid-cloud-water response to anthropogenic aerosols
Open accessAbstract
The cooling of the Earth's climate through the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on clouds offsets an unknown fraction of greenhouse gas warming. An increase in the amount of water inside liquid-phase clouds induced by aerosols, through the suppression of rain formation, has been postulated to lead to substantial cooling, which would imply that the Earth's surface temperature is highly sensitive to anthropogenic forcing. Here we provide direct observational evidence that, instead of a strong increase, aerosols cause a relatively weak average decrease in the amount of water in liquid-phase clouds compared with unpolluted clouds. Measurements of polluted clouds downwind of various anthropogenic sources-such as oil refineries, smelters, coal-fired power plants, cities, wildfires and ships-reveal that aerosol-induced cloud-water increases, caused by suppressed rain formation, and decreases, caused by enhanced evaporation of cloud water, partially cancel each other out. We estimate that the observed decrease in cloud water offsets 23% of the global climate-cooling effect caused by aerosol-induced increases in the concentration of cloud droplets. These findings invalidate the hypothesis that increases in cloud water cause a substantial climate cooling effect and translate into reduced uncertainty in projections of future climate.
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“More recent studies show that aerosols can also change LWP and total cloud fraction (CF), which also greatly affect the amount of solar radiation reflected by clouds2,13–16.”
From Abrupt reduction in shipping emission as an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock produces substantial radiative warming (2024) · cites this paper as [16]
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BackgroundMethodResultSelf-citationDuran, B. M., Wall, C. J., Lutsko, N. J., Michibata, T., Ma, P., Qin, Y., Duffy, M. L., Medeiros, B., & Debolskiy, M. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-2123-2025 · Cited by 9
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“…polluted clouds down-wind of anthropogenic pollution sources finds a weak albeit slightly negative average response of LWP c to aerosol perturbations (Toll et al., 2019) To the contrary, Manshausen et al. (2022) recently find a large positive increase in LWP c by using ship location data to identify…”
Performance of Two‐Moment Stratiform Microphysics With Prognostic Precipitation in GFDL's CM4.0
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BackgroundMeteorological Conditions Favorable for Strong Anthropogenic Aerosol Impacts on Clouds
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BackgroundAnalyses of Virtual Ship‐Tracks Systematically Underestimate Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions Signals
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BackgroundInfluentialPollution slightly enhances atmospheric cooling by low-level clouds in tropical West Africa
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BackgroundBenas, N., Meirink, J. F., Roebeling, R. A., & Stengel, M. (2025) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-25-6957-2025 · Cited by 5
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“Whereas the latter method is put forward with a default condition that (cid:49)r e is always negative, it is only applicable to small-scale pollution tracks like industry tracks, volcano tracks or ship tracks, etc. (Rahu et al., 2022; Toll et al., 2019).”
Bender, F. A. ‐., Lord, T., Staffansdotter, A., Jung, V., & Undorf, S. (2024) · Tellus B · doi:10.16993/tellusb.1868 · Cited by 4
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BackgroundSelf-citationWeak liquid water path response in ship tracksPreprint
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Self-citationFine and coarse aerosols control of cloud water by evaporation-precipitation dynamics
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Self-citationMachine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship
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“…sensing data to quantify and analyze RFaci values associated with warm clouds (e.g Quaas et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2014; Christensen et al., 2017; Toll et al., 2019), often disregarding continental areas Among the more regionalized efforts (e.g Keil and Haywood, 2003; Mace et al., 2006; Marsing…”
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“This uncertainty arises because the net LWP signal is often weak (Toll et al., 2019; Tippett et al., 2024) and highly dependent on both the local meteorology (Goren et al., 2025; Zhang and Feingold, 2023) and the evolving timescales of the perturbation (Gryspeerdt et al., 2021) Here, a synthetic…”
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Douglas, A. (2021) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-446-ac4
Murray-Watson, R. J. (2022) · Atmospheric chemistry and physics · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-861-ac1
Christensen, M. W., Gettelman, A., Čermák, J., Dagan, G., Diamond, M., Douglas, A., Feingold, G., Glassmeier, F., Goren, T., Grosvenor, D. P., et al. (2021) · doi:10.5194/acp-2021-559-supplement
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Nielsen, K. P., Rontu, L., & Gleeson, E. (2021) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/b978-0-12-815491-5.00009-4
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Metadata
- Authors
- Toll, V., Christensen, M., Quaas, J., & Bellouin, N.
- Affiliations
- University of Tartu (EE)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Leipzig University (DE)
- University of Reading (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Toll, Velle
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2019-07-31
- Volume
- 572
- Issue
- 7767
- Pages
- 51-55
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W2965102826
- Cited by
- 254
- References
- 66
- Citations by year
- 2026: 17 · 2025: 32 · 2024: 40 · 2023: 45 · 2022: 42 · 2021: 41 · 2020: 31 · 2019: 6
- FWCI
- 15.44
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Update notices
- correction (2020-01-03)
- Open access
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- CentAUR (University of Reading) (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- University of Reading
- Eesti Teadusagentuur (PSG202)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L013746/1, NE/L013479/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Atmospheric aerosols and clouds
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate Change and Geoengineering
- Keywords
- anthropogenic aerosols, cloud water content, aerosol-cloud interactions, cloud droplet number concentration, cloud evaporation, climate cooling effect, global warming, climate sensitivity
- MeSH terms
- Aerosols, Air Pollution, Human Activities, Models, Theoretical, Rain, Temperature, Water, Greenhouse Effect, Uncertainty, Climate Change
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