The DOI matches its Crossref record; 83 of the 83 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Widespread six degrees Celsius cooling on land during the Last Glacial Maximum
Open accessAbstract
The magnitude of global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, the coldest multimillennial interval of the last glacial period) is an important constraint for evaluating estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity 1,2. Reliable LGM temperatures come from high-latitude ice cores 3,4, but substantial disagreement exists between proxy records in the low latitudes 1,5-8, where quantitative low-elevation records on land are scarce. Filling this data gap, noble gases in ancient groundwater record past land surface temperatures through a direct physical relationship that is rooted in their temperature-dependent solubility in water 9,10. Dissolved noble gases are suitable tracers of LGM temperature because of their complete insensitivity to biological and chemical processes and the ubiquity of LGM-aged groundwater around the globe 11,12. However, although several individual noble gas studies have found substantial tropical LGM cooling 13-16, they have used different methodologies and provide limited spatial coverage. Here we use noble gases in groundwater to show that the low-altitude, low-to-mid-latitude land surface (45 degrees south to 35 degrees north) cooled by 5.8 ± 0.6 degrees Celsius (mean ± 95% confidence interval) during the LGM. Our analysis includes four decades of groundwater noble gas data from six continents, along with new records from the tropics, all of which were interpreted using the same physical framework. Our land-based result broadly supports a recent reconstruction based on marine proxy data assimilation 1 that suggested greater climate sensitivity than previous estimates 5-7.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The source backs part of the claim, not all of it — or backs it for a different population, condition or comparison.
In the citing paper
“Tracing back the post-LGM or Holocene ice loss rate from current measurements is difficult considering that climate was at least 6 °C colder during the LGM”
From Fast uplift in the southern Patagonian Andes due to long- and short-term deglaciation and the asthenospheric window underneath (2024) · cites this paper as Seltzer et al., 2021
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., et al. (2020) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.3803 · Cited by 31,882
Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica
Petit, J., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N. I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile‐Doelsch, I., Bender, M. L., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M. E., Delaygue, G., et al. (1999) · Nature · doi:10.1038/20859 · Cited by 6,516
Discussion Reporting of 14 C Data
Stuiver, M., & Polach, H. A. (1977) · Radiocarbon · doi:10.1017/s0033822200003672 · Cited by 5,640
Characterizing aquatic dissolved organic matter.
Leenheer, J. A., & Croué, J.-P. (2003) · PubMed · Cited by 4,891
Orbital and Millennial Antarctic Climate Variability over the Past 800,000 Years
Jouzel, J., Masson‐Delmotte, V., Cattani, O., Dreyfus, G., Falourd, S., Hoffmann, G., Minster, B., Nouet, J., Barnola, J.-M., Chappellaz, J., et al. (2007) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1141038 · Cited by 2,592
The Surface of the Ice-Age Earth
CLIMAP Project Members (1976) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.191.4232.1131 · Cited by 1,452
Climate Change in Continental Isotopic Records
Swart, P. K. (1993) · Geophysical monograph · doi:10.1029/gm078 · Cited by 1,445
The role of ocean-atmosphere reorganizations in glacial cycles
Broecker, W. S., & Denton, G. H. (1989) · Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta · doi:10.1016/0016-7037(89)90123-3 · Cited by 903
Pollen-based continental climate reconstructions at 6 and 21 ka: a global synthesis
Bartlein, P. J., Harrison, S. P., Brewer, S., Connor, S., Davis, B., Gajewski, K., Guiot, J., Harrison-Prentice, T., Henderson, A. K., Peyron, O., et al. (2010) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0904-1 · Cited by 765
Constraints on the magnitude and patterns of ocean cooling at the Last Glacial Maximum
MARGO Project Members (2009) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo411 · Cited by 633
Research works printed but not linked: 1
- Schwander, J. in The Environmental Record in Glaciers and Ice Sheets (eds Oeschger, H. & Langway, C. C.) 53–67 (Wiley, 1989).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Global warming in the pipeline
Hansen, J. E., Sato, M., Simons, L., Nazarenko, L., Sangha, I., Kharecha, P. A., Zachos, J. C., von Schuckmann, K., Loeb, N. G., Osman, M., et al. (2023) · Oxford Open Climate Change · doi:10.1093/oxfclm/kgad008 · Cited by 377
Chen, F., Duan, Y., Hao, S., Chen, J., Feng, X., Hou, J., Cao, X., Zhang, X., & Zhou, T. (2023) · Science China Earth Sciences · doi:10.1007/s11430-022-1113-x · Cited by 59
The deglacial forest conundrum
Dallmeyer, A., Kleinen, T., Claussen, M. A., Weitzel, N., Cao, X., & Herzschuh, U. (2022) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6 · Cited by 61
Warix, S. R., Navarre‐Sitchler, A. K., Manning, A. H., & Singha, K. (2023) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2023wr035044 · Cited by 41
Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates
Cooper, V. T., Armour, K. C., Hakim, G. J., Tierney, J. E., Osman, M., Proistosescu, C., Dong, Y., Burls, N., Andrews, T., Amrhein, D. E., et al. (2024) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.adk9461 · Cited by 32
Metadata
- Authors
- Seltzer, A. M., Ng, J., Aeschbach, W., Kipfer, R., Kulongoski, J. T., Severinghaus, J. P., & Stute, M.
- Affiliations
- Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (US)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- Heidelberg University (DE)
- ETH Zurich (CH)
- Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (US)
- Corresponding author
- Seltzer, Alan M.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2021-05-12
- Volume
- 593
- Issue
- 7858
- Pages
- 228-232
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W3160078815
- Cited by
- 133
- References
- 83
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 37 · 2022: 34 · 2021: 8
- FWCI
- 8.37
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.dora.lib4ri.ch
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- DORA Eawag (Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (Eawag)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (1702571, 1923915, 1702704)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Geochemistry and Petrology › Groundwater and Isotope Geochemistry
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Keywords
- Last Glacial Maximum, land surface cooling, dissolved noble gases, paleoclimate reconstruction, climate sensitivity, paleotemperature proxies
- MeSH terms
- Altitude, Climate, Cold Temperature, Noble Gases, Solubility, Reproducibility of Results, Ice Cover, History, Ancient, Climate Change, Groundwater
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
