The DOI matches its Crossref record; 110 of the 116 references it cites were found in a registry or an index; 30 of the 77 sources its claims cite were checked for support.
Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks
Open accessAbstract
Genome-wide study reconstructing a serial founder expansion through Polynesia with Hawaiian settlement situated within the East Polynesian migration sequence.
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Claims the paper makes
30 Own interpretation · 29 Own result · 24 Own method · 15 Couldn’t confirm · 13 No full text of the sources · 9 No basis given · 5 Supported so far · 4 Partly supported · 4 Sources not found · 4 Not checked yet · 1 Mixed support · 1 Not supported · accuracy not yet measured
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In the paper
“The dates that we infer from our genome-wide network analyses support the radiocarbon-based ‘short chronology’ from the comprehensive re-analysis of Wilmshurst et al.12 as corrected by Mulrooney et al.3 (Extended Data Table 1), as opposed to the prior nearly one thousand year older ‘long chronology’2,4, and as opposed to the intermediate chronology suggested by Spriggs and Anderson13”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
What the sources say
- Supportedcites [12] Wilmshurst, J. M., Hunt, T. L., Lipo, C. P. & Anderson, A. J. High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 1815–1820 (2011). source
The Results and Discussion report a substantially shortened radiocarbon chronology for East Polynesia and say it is centuries shorter than the chronology proposed by Spriggs and Anderson. The genome-wide network dates are the citing authors’ own finding, while the correction is attributed to Mulrooney et al.; neither is attributed to Wilmshurst et al. (LLM, conf=0.93)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Mulrooney, M. A., Bickler, S. H., Allen, M. S. & Ladefoged, T. N. High-precision dating of colonization and settlement in East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, E192–E194 (2011). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [2] Kirch, P. V. On the Road of the Winds (Univ. of California Press, 2017). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Schmid, M. M. E. et al. How 14C dates on wood charcoal increase precision when dating colonization: the examples of Iceland and Polynesia. Quat. Geochronol. 48, 64–71 (2018). source
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The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“many individuals, including all samples from certain islands, have some amount of non-Polynesian ancestry: European, Native American, and African32.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [32] Wang, C. et al. Comparing spatial maps of human population-genetic variation using procrustes analysis. Stat. Appl. Genet. Mol. Biol. 9, 13 (2010). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction discusses geographic patterns of genetic variation and compares SNP and CNV data, but does not report non-Polynesian ancestry in island samples. Searches for Polynesian ancestry and island admixture found no passage addressing the claimed European, Native American, and African sources. (LLM, conf=0.72)
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In the paper
“(This is likely due to the post-colonial movement to those islands of Hakka immigrants from China for work in the 19th century64.)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [64] O’Connell, J. et al. A general approach for haplotype phasing across the full spectrum of relatedness. PLoS Genet. 10, e1004234 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Materials and Methods section (‘Real datasets’; page unavailable) describes cohorts in Europe and Uganda, not the Marquesas. Searches for Hakka immigration and East Asian ancestry in the Marquesas found no passage in our copy addressing the claimed explanation. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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In the paper
“Hence, the distribution of the length of fragments (x) from a particular ancestor T generations ago will be exponential with λ = T decay rate97, fx=λe−λx.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [97] Botigué, L. R. et al. Gene flow from North Africa contributes to differential human genetic diversity in southern Europe. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 11791–11796 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results section (‘Long identical-by-descent haplotypes’; page unavailable) says that segments sharing a recent common ancestor have lengths and distributions informative of recent migration. It does not state that their lengths follow an exponential distribution or that the decay rate equals T generations. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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In the paper
“Using the ultrametric inequality, we can impute unknown distances d(i,j) simply by searching across all intermediate populations k and finding the minimum103, mink∈pops{max{di,k,dj,k}}.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [103] Deemer, W. L. Jr & Votaw, D. F. Jr Estimation of parameters of truncated or censored exponential distributions. Ann. Math. Stat. 26, 498–504 (1955). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Summary (p. 1) describes estimation for truncated and censored exponential distributions, and the Maximum-likelihood estimators section (pp. 2–3) develops those estimators. Searches for the ultrametric inequality and for imputing population distances through an intermediate population found no passage addressing the claimed method. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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In the paper
“since πij has been shown to have higher correlation with the divergence time between two populations (i and j) than the outgroup-F3 statistic81”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [81] Peter, B. M. & Slatkin, M. The effective founder effect in a spatially expanding population. Evolution 69, 721–734 (2015). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (Range Expansion Model and Overview of Theoretical Results; page unavailable) discuss the directionality index ψ and geographic distance, not the relative correlations of πij and outgroup-F3 with divergence time. Searches for outgroup-F3, pairwise differences, and πij found no passage addressing that comparison. (LLM, conf=0.74)
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In the paper
“The distributions are also right truncated at 15 cM, because outlier segments longer than this are expected to stem from recent contact, dating to less than 10 generations ago (18th century or later) as computed from the expected generation time (g) based on a single fragment length ℓ in Morgans, Egℓ≃32ℓ/1M, where 1M is one Morgan91.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [91] Edmonds, J. Optimum branchings. J. Res. Natl. Bur. Stand. 71B, 233–240 (1967). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 4 describes an algorithm for maximum-weight branchings in directed graphs, and Section 2 discusses spanning arborescences; neither addresses genetic segments. Searches for IBD, 15 cM, centimorgans, and generation time found no passage supporting the truncation or dating claim. (LLM, conf=0.79)
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In the paper
“Fragments shorter than this length are prone to false positives due to insufficient SNPs90–92.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [90] Chu, Y. J. & Lui, T. H. On the shortest arborescence of a directed graph. Science Sinica 14, 1396–1400 (1965).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Could not verifycites [91] Edmonds, J. Optimum branchings. J. Res. Natl. Bur. Stand. 71B, 233–240 (1967). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
Section 3 describes an algorithm for optimum branchings in weighted graphs, and Section 9 discusses spanning arborescences; page numbers are unavailable in our copy. Searches for identity-by-descent fragments, 5 cM, SNPs, and false positives found no passage addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [92] Ceballos, F. C., Joshi, P. K., Clark, D. W., Ramsay, M. & Wilson, J. F. Runs of homozygosity: windows into population history and trait architecture. Nat. Rev. Genet. 19, 220–234 (2018). source
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In the paper
“Our reconstruction of the branching Polynesian migration sequence reveals a serial founder expansion, characterized by directional loss of variants”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
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In the paper
“the first two dimensions of major genomic variation—even in an ancestry-specific PCA of the Polynesian individuals (Fig. 1b)—do not separate islands geographically”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“the Polynesian islands differ widely in genetic diversity.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“Using this more robust directionality-based algorithm (see Supplementary Discussion ‘On tree-building’), the settlement path of Polynesia can be reconstructed (Fig. 2a).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
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In the paper
“In a plot of this ancestry-specific tSNE method (Fig. 1d), the islands of the ancestral west—Taiwan, Island Southeast Asia (Sumatra), Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa—are grouped on the left and the more recently settled eastern islands on the right.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“We confirm this hypothesis below”
- Also stated in: § Discussion · boosted
“The modern peoples of Polynesia carry strong genetic evidence for a range expansion beginning in Samoa and propagating out across eastern Polynesia through a series of telescoping founder events from the 11th through 12th centuries.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
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In the paper
“Islands in archipelagos, for instance the Cook Islands of Mauke, Atiu, and Rarotonga, form neighboring clusters.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“Notably, we find that the population of Raivavae in the Australs arrived via the distant Tuamotus and Mangareva, rather than via the other Austral islands of Tubuai and Rimatara (Fig. 1a and Supplementary Figs. 6, 7).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
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In the paper
“Our later divergence dates (1330–1360 CE) for some islands within archipelagos—North Marquesas (Nuku Hiva) in the Marquesas, Raivavae and Rimatara in the Australs—fall within the period of greatest inter-island trade contact in eastern Polynesia25.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] Kirch, P. V. et al. Human ecodynamics in the Mangareva Islands: a stratified sequence from Nenega-Iti Rock Shelter (site AGA-3, Agakauitai Island). Archaeol. Oceania 50, 23–42 (2015). source
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In the paper
“The existence of these five ancestries within the Pacific island samples had been indicated by the K=7 unsupervised global ADMIXTURE clustering run discussed above (Supplementary Fig. 32).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
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In the paper
“However, both masking methods (both the Taiwan and the Tonga, Samoa, Fiji outgroup polarizations) gave the same ordering of islands settled.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“The modern peoples of Polynesia carry strong genetic evidence for a range expansion beginning in Samoa and propagating out across eastern Polynesia through a series of telescoping founder events from the 11th through 12th centuries.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
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In the paper
“South Marquesas (Fatu Hiva) was, we have found, settled early (1140 CE) from Palliser.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“showing that these correction factors represent an adjustment of only a few percent.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“The lack of significant internal cross-migration edges was determined by our F4 analysis above.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“Only three branches in our settlement sequence show any significant deviations”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“Rapa Nui also has the lowest heterozygosity (Supplementary Fig. 31)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“each of these indicate a migration from Tahiti to an outlying French Polynesian island”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“and the highest intra-island IBD (Supplementary Figs. 25–26)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“that the genetic composition of each remote island group is dominated by the contribution of its founders (see Extended Data Figure 3)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
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In the paper
“the western Austral (Tuha’a Pae) Islands and Tuāmotu Archipelago (12th century)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
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In the paper
“Currently, several centuries separate the dates suggested by different archaeological surveys2–4.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [2] Kirch, P. V. On the Road of the Winds (Univ. of California Press, 2017). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Mulrooney, M. A., Bickler, S. H., Allen, M. S. & Ladefoged, T. N. High-precision dating of colonization and settlement in East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, E192–E194 (2011). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Schmid, M. M. E. et al. How 14C dates on wood charcoal increase precision when dating colonization: the examples of Iceland and Polynesia. Quat. Geochronol. 48, 64–71 (2018). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The settlement sequence of Polynesian islands remains particularly difficult to unravel using comparative linguistic or cultural approaches due to the rapidity of the initial expansion and the subsequent cultural exchanges between islands7,9–11.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [7] Kirch, P. V. & Green, R. C. Hawaiki, Ancestral Polynesia (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Gray, R. D., Drummond, A. J. & Greenhill, S. J. Language phylogenies reveal expansion pulses and pauses in Pacific settlement. Science 323, 479–483 (2009). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [10] Walworth, M. Eastern Polynesian: the linguistic evidence revisited. Ocean. Linguist. 53, 256–272 (2014). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [11] Martinsson-Wallin, H., Wallin, P. & Anderson, A. Chronogeographic variation in initial East Polynesian construction of monumental ceremonial sites. J. Island Coastal Archaeol. 8, 405–421 (2013). source
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In the paper
“that originated in Samoa and spread first through the Cook Islands (Rarotonga)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
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In the paper
“is guaranteed to find the optimal tree out of the space of all possible trees in the presence of perfect data”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
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In the paper
“that originated in Samoa and spread first through the Cook Islands (Rarotonga)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
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In the paper
“The presence of large-scale post-colonial admixture from such divergent ancestry sources completely confounds Polynesian-focused interpretations of within-island and between-island variance when these admixed samples are included in the PCA (Supplementary Fig. 4).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“standard non-ancestry specific analyses are confounded by the recent introduction of highly differentiated colonial ancestry, such as European, even when that ancestry proportion is small (Supplementary Fig. 10).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This pattern is consistent across alternate dimensionality reduction methods (see Methods), including our ancestry-specific formulations of uniform manifold approximation (UMAP) (Supplementary Figs 6, 7) and self-organizing map (SOM) (Supplementary Fig. 8), as well as our genetic drift projection method (Supplementary Fig. 9).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Nevertheless, these divergence dates should be seen as the terminus ante quem for the settlement of each child island (Fig. 2A and Extended Data Table 1 and Extended Data Fig. 6).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“then to the Society (Tōtaiete mā) Islands (11th century)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In the case of the most remote islands such as Rapa Nui, which are believed to have had no large-scale population exchanges with other islands, the IBD-based date should coincide closely with the actual date of settlement.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Rests on an assumption: Rapa Nui had no large-scale population exchanges with other islands.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“amongst the relatively recently settled Polynesian islands, genetic drift is created not so much by time, but by founder effects.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, the largely un-drifted (parental) populations for most of these islands are still extant: they are the populations of the originating islands.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Polynesia was settled in a series of extraordinary voyages across an ocean spanning one third of the planet1”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [1] Low, S. Hawaiki Rising: Hōkūle‘a, Nainoa Thompson, and the Hawaiian Renaissance (Univ. of Hawaii Press, 2019).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“When using Taiwan as an outgroup, we masked the small Ni-Vanuatuan segments seen within Polynesia, since these segments trace their predominant ancestral origin back to a Papuan outgroup in New Guinea, rather than to the Austronesian outgroup, Taiwan.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“By explicitly averaging an individual’s two haplotype vectors to form a single genotype frequency vector for that individual, we are able to fill in much of the masked data that is missing from either of the two haplotypes.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“For this reason we removed European chromosomal segments, as well as African and Native American, from the Pacific island samples.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From Mangareva, we find that the expansion reached the easternmost inhabited Polynesian island, Rapa Nui (Easter Island), around 1210 CE.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, our inferred dates and settlement path lend support to the idea that expansion into eastern Polynesia was mediated by the birth of those intermediary island clusters at the turn of the last millennium.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“The larger number of samples from Tonga, Samoa, and Fiji (51), as opposed to Taiwan (22), also contributed, as it allowed us to set a more permissive bound for confirming that an allele observed minor in the outgroup samples was also minor in the outgroup population.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This supports the theory that that contact occurred while the Polynesians were embarking on their easternmost, and longest, voyages of discovery.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This settlement sequence is also supported by our marker frequency-based genetic analyses, including ancestry-specific UMAP (Supplementary Fig. 6), drift projection (Supplementary Fig. 9), F-statistics (Supplementary Figs. 11–12), principal curve analyses (Extended Data Fig. 7 and Supplementary Fig. 17), diversity statistics (Supplementary Figs. 25–31), and ADMIXTURE clustering (Supplementary Figs”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“In such cases, for example serially founded small island populations, IBD-based analyses become a powerful tool for reconstructing migrations.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [89] Davison, A. C. & Hinkley, D. V. Bootstrap Methods and Their Application (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1997). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Although the total count (integral) of this distribution will be influenced by the fraction in each population of the ancestry of interest, the shape of the distribution will not be.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Thus, to first order the decay rate parameter λ will measure the time (T/50 with T in generations) to the split of the parent and child islands plus a constant”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- The authors state this as an assumption: The constant added to the parent-child split time in the decay rate λ is common across these remote islands and founder events.
The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“although the normalized total length of IBD sharing between two populations gives a measure of the relatedness of the populations, it is quite sensitive to an accurate estimation of the average fraction in each population of the ancestry of interest.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“A pair of present-day Pacific islanders, one from the child island and one from the parent island, cannot share a common ancestor at any site (in their Polynesian ancestry segments) more recently than the founding date of the child island.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plainn = 2- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“Therefore, we can correct for the frequency of these non-productive recombination events at each meiosis event. The correction factor ρ (the proportion of the genome shared on average intra-island) is specific to each island (dependent on the intra-island IBD on each island accrued through preceding founding bottlenecks) and so must be applied separately to the two branches of the pedigree”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Coop et. al have shown that the decay rate parameter λ of this distribution is a weighted average of the distribution of times to the most recent common ancestor across all genomic sites99.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [99] Jobling, M., Hurles, M. & Tyler-Smith, C. Human Evolutionary Genetics (Garland Science, 2013). source
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, for our problem—dating the founding of an isolated island group—the demography is amenable.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
In the paper
“Inter-island IBD segments lying wholly within post-colonial ancestries, or spanning post-colonial and pre-colonial ancestries, are necessarily the result of post-colonial inter-island contact events and were discarded.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [65] D’Arcy, P. The Chinese Pacifics: a brief historical review. J. Pacific Hist. 49, 396–420 (2014). source
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, the sum of IBD lengths, which is the integral of the curves in Supplementary Fig. 22A, is clearly not robust to such errors in the normalization (rescaling the y-axis).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
- It may state two separate claims as one. 61
- Probably not a substantial claim. 32
Some cited sources support this claim and some don’t — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, ancient DNA studies have sequenced only four samples from one island in western Polynesia and three near-modern samples from one island in eastern Polynesia, all with low genotype density, still lower between-sample genotype overlap, and different time frames17,18.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Disputedcites [17] Skoglund, P. et al. Genomic insights into the peopling of the Southwest Pacific. Nature 538, 510–513 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s ancient-DNA passage (section labeled Abstract; page unavailable) explicitly places its four sequenced individuals on two islands: three on Efate, Vanuatu, and one on Tongatapu, Tonga—not four on one western Polynesian island. It reports 139,461–231,944 covered SNPs per individual, but does not report three near-modern eastern Polynesian samples or the claimed between-sample genotype overlap. (LLM, conf=0.88)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
- Partly supportedcites [18] Posth, C. et al. Language continuity despite population replacement in Remote Oceania. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 731–740 (2018). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results (‘Different genetic trajectory in Polynesia’; page unavailable) report three genome-wide samples from Ra’iātea, eastern Polynesia, dated to the 18th century. The paper also reports three Tongan samples, but does not establish the claimed total of four western Polynesian samples from one island; nor does it state that all samples had low genotype density or quantify between-sample overlap. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plainn = 4- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Disputed
At least one cited source doesn’t support this claim or points to a different paper, and none confirmed it — see the verdicts below.
In the paper
“Standard errors for all allele frequency based statistics were computed using the block-bootstrap using 100 replicates and a block size of 1000 markers86.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Disputedcites [86] Patterson, N. et al. Reconstructing Indian population history. Nature 461, 489–494 (2009). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Methods Summary (page not available in our copy) says standard errors were computed using a Block Jackknife, not a block bootstrap. It does not give the claimed 100 replicates or 1,000-marker block size. (LLM, conf=0.89)
Checked by a reasoning model — may be wrong.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Disputed
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Previous region-wide Polynesian genetics studies have considered only globin gene polymorphisms14, or have been restricted to near (western) Polynesia15 and the Society Islands16 and lacked an ancestry-specific approach.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [14] Hill, A. V. S. et al. Polynesian origins and affinities: globin gene variants in eastern Polynesia. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 40, 453–463 (1987).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [15] Wollstein, A. et al. Demographic history of Oceania inferred from genome-wide data. Curr. Biol. 20, 1983–1992 (2010). source
- Supportedcites [16] Hudjashov, G. et al. Investigating the origins of eastern Polynesians using genome-wide data from the Leeward Society Isles. Sci. Rep. 8, 1823 (2018). source
The Results (Data; page unavailable) identify this as a genomic study of individuals from the Leeward Society Islands. The Materials and Methods (Autosomal analysis; page unavailable) describe analyses of combined genomic data rather than an ancestry-specific approach. The globin-gene and western-Polynesia clauses are attached to other citations, not this source. (LLM, conf=0.84)
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Not matched
The sources with a verdict support this claim; the rest weren’t checked yet, have no full text we could read, or their verdicts aren’t rated yet.
In the paper
“Geological analyses of Polynesian trade goods, particularly adzes, indicate that the remote Polynesian islands remained in trade contact with one another for several centuries25,28,29.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] Kirch, P. V. et al. Human ecodynamics in the Mangareva Islands: a stratified sequence from Nenega-Iti Rock Shelter (site AGA-3, Agakauitai Island). Archaeol. Oceania 50, 23–42 (2015). source
- Supportedcites [28] Weisler, M. I. et al. Cook Island artifact geochemistry demonstrates spatial and temporal extent of pre-European interarchipelago voyaging in East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 8150–8155 (2016). source
The Abstract reports geochemical sourcing of adze material imported to Mangaia from several distant archipelagos for more than 300 years, beginning in the early AD 1300s. The Conclusions describe this as an interaction network involving at least three archipelagos, supporting the claim of sustained contact through exchange. (LLM, conf=0.92)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [29] Collerson, K. D. & Weisler, M. I. Stone adze compositions and the extent of ancient Polynesian voyaging and trade. Science 317, 1907–1911 (2007). source
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“The Polynesians are predominantly descended from Austronesian-speaking voyagers17”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [17] Skoglund, P. et al. Genomic insights into the peopling of the Southwest Pacific. Nature 538, 510–513 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s ancestry-model passage (labelled Abstract in our copy; no page given) identifies a population related to the First Remote Oceanians as the primary component in present-day Polynesians, and describes seafaring settlement of Remote Oceania. It does not establish that those ancestral voyagers spoke Austronesian languages; the Extended Data table labels some present-day sampled populations Austronesian-speaking, but not the ancient voyagers. (LLM, conf=0.82)
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Partly supported
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Our date for the settlement of Rapa Nui is consistent with Wilmshurst and Mulrooney and also agrees closely with the date found by Hunt et al. (1200 CE) based on analyses of pollen in lake cores and soil erosion patterns42, as well as with recent radiocarbon dates of archaeological sites43.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [42] Anderson, A. J., Conte, E., Smith, I. & Szabo, K. New excavations at Fa’ahia (Huahine, Society Islands) and chronologies of central East Polynesian colonization. J. Pac. Arch. 10, 1–14 (2019). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Radiocarbon Dating Results from Fa’ahia section describes dates from Huahine, while General points discusses colonization estimates for other East Polynesian island groups. Searches for Rapa Nui or Easter Island settlement, Wilmshurst, Mulrooney, and Hunt’s 1200 CE estimate found no passage assessing the claimed agreement with Rapa Nui archaeological dates. (LLM, conf=0.74)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [43] Hunt, T. L. & Lipo, C. P. Evidence for a shorter chronology on Rapa Nui (Easter Island). J. Island Coast. Archaeol. (2008). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
- Could not verify
The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“Meanwhile, the archaeological estimates for settlement dates remain debated, and have recently been revised forward across eastern Polynesia by up to a millennium2–4,12,13.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [2] Kirch, P. V. On the Road of the Winds (Univ. of California Press, 2017). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [3] Mulrooney, M. A., Bickler, S. H., Allen, M. S. & Ladefoged, T. N. High-precision dating of colonization and settlement in East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, E192–E194 (2011). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [4] Schmid, M. M. E. et al. How 14C dates on wood charcoal increase precision when dating colonization: the examples of Iceland and Polynesia. Quat. Geochronol. 48, 64–71 (2018). source
- Partly supportedcites [12] Wilmshurst, J. M., Hunt, T. L., Lipo, C. P. & Anderson, A. J. High-precision radiocarbon dating shows recent and rapid initial human colonization of East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 1815–1820 (2011). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The introduction says East Polynesian settlement dates remain debated, with long and short chronologies differing by 400–1,000 years. The Results and Discussion report a revised, later colonization chronology, but say it shortens the estimated age by up to 2,000 years relative to some earlier claims. Thus the stated ceiling of a millennium does not capture the full range reported by this source. (LLM, conf=0.84)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [13] Spriggs, M. & Anderson, A. Late colonization of east Polynesia. Antiquity 67, 200–217 (1993). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. It may state two separate claims as one.
The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“Unlike earlier methods69, this method permits the use of all samples, rather than only a panel of reference samples, for the completion step; thus, far more data is used allowing for more accurate completion.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [32] Wang, C. et al. Comparing spatial maps of human population-genetic variation using procrustes analysis. Stat. Appl. Genet. Mol. Biol. 9, 13 (2010). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction describes Procrustes analysis for comparing spatial maps, including plots whose sample sets only partially overlap. Searches for matrix completion, reference panels, missing entries, and imputation found no passage about using all samples in a completion step or improving completion accuracy. Page numbers were not provided in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.75)
- Could not verifycites [68] Moreno-Estrada, A. et al. The genetics of Mexico recapitulates Native American substructure and affects biomedical traits. Science 344, 1280–1285 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The passage on reference panels (section labeled Abstract; page unavailable) concerns haplotype sharing in Mexican samples, not a matrix-completion method. Searches for matrix completion, the completion step, and missing-data imputation found no passage saying that all samples can be used for completion or that doing so improves accuracy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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In the paper
“Native American ancestry, particularly from emigration of admixed Hispanic individuals from Chile, which annexed Rapa Nui (Easter Island), and African ancestry also entered32.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [32] Wang, C. et al. Comparing spatial maps of human population-genetic variation using procrustes analysis. Stat. Appl. Genet. Mol. Biol. 9, 13 (2010). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction discusses comparisons of genetic-variation maps and CNV datasets, but does not address ancestry entering Polynesia. Searches for Rapa Nui, Chilean migration, Native American ancestry, and African admixture found no passage supporting the claim in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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In the paper
“This gives better variance estimates than the jackknife for these pairwise allele frequency comparisons34.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [34] Novembre, J. et al. Genes mirror geography within Europe. Nature 456, 98–101 (2008). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Methods Summary describes leave-one-out cross-validation, and the Methods describe SNP filtering and association simulations. Neither those passages nor searches for “block bootstrap,” “jackknife,” and “variance estimates” address a comparison of the two methods for pairwise allele-frequency comparisons. (LLM, conf=0.75)
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In the paper
“(A 0.1 or lower minor allele frequency was required in the merged Tonga, Samoa, Fiji outgroup samples, yielding 228,262 SNPs, as opposed to the more stringent requirement of minor alleles being fixed in the Taiwan outgroup samples, following the procedure of Zhan et. al37, which yielded only 137,383 SNPs.)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [37] Peter, B. M. & Slatkin, M. Detecting range expansions from genetic data. Evolution 67, 3274–3289 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results > Application section describes an analysis of human populations using several hundred thousand loci, but gives neither of the claimed SNP counts. Searches for the Tonga–Samoa–Fiji and Taiwan outgroups, the two counts, and the stated allele-frequency criteria found no passage addressing those filters. (LLM, conf=0.76)
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In the paper
“European ancestries entered Polynesia during the colonial period with the first European explorer (Magellan) arriving in the 16th century and significant immigration commencing in the early 19th century64.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [64] O’Connell, J. et al. A general approach for haplotype phasing across the full spectrum of relatedness. PLoS Genet. 10, e1004234 (2014). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Materials and Methods section (‘Real datasets’; page unavailable) describes cohorts in Europe and Uganda, while the other retrieved passages concern haplotype phasing or references. Searches for Polynesia, Magellan, colonial-era European ancestry, and 19th-century immigration found no passage in our copy addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.77)
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In the paper
“Stretching across central eastern Polynesia, the Tuamotu Archipelago was previously hypothesized to have served as a regional voyaging hub20,25,28, and our analysis indicates that it was from this hub that settlers made their way north to the Marquesas Islands (Nuku Hiva and Fatu Hiva in our dataset) and south to the Gambier Islands (Mangareva in our dataset) beginning in the mid-1100s CE.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [20] Emory, K. P. The Tuamotuan creation charts by Paiore. J. Polynesian Soc. 48, 1–29 (1939).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [25] Kirch, P. V. et al. Human ecodynamics in the Mangareva Islands: a stratified sequence from Nenega-Iti Rock Shelter (site AGA-3, Agakauitai Island). Archaeol. Oceania 50, 23–42 (2015). source
- Supportedcites [28] Weisler, M. I. et al. Cook Island artifact geochemistry demonstrates spatial and temporal extent of pre-European interarchipelago voyaging in East Polynesia. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 113, 8150–8155 (2016). source
The citation is attached to the prior hypothesis that the Tuamotus served as a regional voyaging hub. The Conclusions (page unavailable) call the archipelago “the navigational crossroads of central East Polynesia,” supporting that characterization. The proposed settlement routes and mid-1100s date are explicitly presented as the citing authors’ own analysis, not as findings attributed to this source. (LLM, conf=0.86)
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In the paper
“It is also notable that it is only on islands that we infer were settled via the Tuamotus that pre-colonial Native American genetic contact has been identified, and its timing corresponds closely with our voyaging dates for this region32.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [32] Wang, C. et al. Comparing spatial maps of human population-genetic variation using procrustes analysis. Stat. Appl. Genet. Mol. Biol. 9, 13 (2010). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction compares worldwide genetic and geographic maps using Procrustes analysis; it does not discuss settlement through the Tuamotus. Searches for Native American genetic contact, Polynesian islands, and voyaging dates found no passage addressing the claimed locations or timing. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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The cited sources support only part of this claim — read each source’s verdict below.
In the paper
“(Admixture between populations stemming from these two sources occurred on Vanuatu and other Melanesian islands in the thousand years before the settlement of Polynesia and was carried into Polynesia during its settlement17,79.)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Partly supportedcites [17] Skoglund, P. et al. Genomic insights into the peopling of the Southwest Pacific. Nature 538, 510–513 (2016). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The paper’s Abstract (page unavailable) dates Papuan–First Remote Oceanian mixture to roughly 1,500–2,300 years before present and finds Papuan ancestry in present-day Polynesians. It does not locate that mixture on Vanuatu or other Melanesian islands, or establish that an already admixed population carried it into Polynesia during settlement. Instead, the ancient Vanuatu and Tongan individuals had little or no Papuan ancestry, and the paper infers later movements into Remote Oceania. (LLM, conf=0.86)
- Could not verifycites [79] Wittek, P., Gao, S. C., Lim, I. S. & Zhao, L. Somoclu: an efficient parallel library for self-organizing maps. J. Stat. Softw. 78, https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v078.i09 (2017). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Introduction (pp. 1–2) discusses self-organizing maps, not population history. Searches for admixture on Vanuatu and other Melanesian islands, and for Papuan–Austronesian ancestry and Polynesian settlement, found no passage in our copy addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
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The cited sources that could be checked couldn’t confirm or dispute this claim.
In the paper
“In addition, the model of IBD segment independence holds only for (N >> T) with N the population size and T the number of generations97.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [97] Botigué, L. R. et al. Gene flow from North Africa contributes to differential human genetic diversity in southern Europe. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 110, 11791–11796 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Results section discusses detecting and comparing IBD segments, and Materials and Methods describes a sample-size correction. Neither states when IBD segments can be treated as independent; searches for segment independence and the N >> T condition found no supporting passage. Page numbers were not available in our copy. (LLM, conf=0.73)
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In the paper
“If we are considering recombination segments shared between two present day individuals stemming from the same common ancestor, that is IBD segments, we must adjust the rate for the number of recombination events per unit length that have occurred down both sides of the pedigree from this common ancestor, which gives a λ of 2T total92,95,98.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [92] Ceballos, F. C., Joshi, P. K., Clark, D. W., Ramsay, M. & Wilson, J. F. Runs of homozygosity: windows into population history and trait architecture. Nat. Rev. Genet. 19, 220–234 (2018). source
- Supportedcites [95] Gusev, A. et al. Whole population, genome-wide mapping of hidden relatedness. Genome Res. 19, 318–326 (2009). source
The Abstract (page unavailable) says an ancestral haplotype reaches two kth-generation descendants through 2k meioses and gives the expected shared-segment length as 100/(2k) cM. Its reciprocal is a decay rate of 2k per Morgan, or k/50 per cM, matching the claim with T = k. (LLM, conf=0.88)
- Supportedcites [98] Atzmon, G. et al. Abraham’s children in the genome era: major Jewish diaspora populations comprise distinct genetic clusters with shared Middle Eastern ancestry. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 86, 850–859 (2010). source
In “Sharing between Remote Relatives” (page unavailable), the paper says IBD segment length depends on transmissions from the shared ancestor and is exponentially distributed. Its stated mean of 50 cM/(k+1) for k-th cousins corresponds to a decay rate of (k+1)/50 per cM, or 2T per Morgan when the ancestor is T=k+1 generations back on each side. (LLM, conf=0.90)
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In the paper
“This recursive algorithm for building the branching settlement path of the Pacific islands is a form of the Chu-Liu-Edmonds algorithm, which is guaranteed to produce the minimum spanning tree of a directed acyclic graph (see Supplementary Discussion ‘On tree-building’)87,88.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
What the sources say
- Could not verifycites [87] Bhatia, G., Patterson, N., Sankararaman, S. & Price, A. L. Estimating and interpreting FST: the impact of rare variants. Genome Res. 23, 1514–1521 (2013). sourceExperimental — accuracy not yet measured
The Methods section on Nei’s FST and the Results sections on SNP ascertainment and FST estimators discuss population-genetic estimates, not settlement-path construction. Searches for the Chu-Liu-Edmonds algorithm, Pacific Islands tree-building, and directed graphs found no passage in our copy addressing the claim. (LLM, conf=0.78)
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [88] Nei, M. & Roychoudhury, A. K. Sampling variances of heterozygosity and genetic distance. Genetics 76, 379–390 (1974). source
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In the paper
“Only in the settlement of the Marquesas Island group, dated by Mulrooney to the late 1100s CE, and the Southern Cook Islands, dated even later by Wilmshurst to the mid-1200s CE, do we find different (earlier) dates.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
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In the paper
“Because the originating islands have much greater diversity (as discussed below), they dominate the first principal component when included in the PCA (Supplementary Fig. 3).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“we find that Polynesian population structure exhibits high dimensionality (Supplementary Fig. 1) not at all reflective of geography (Fig. 1a)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“Rarotonga and Palliser appear at the center of the eastern Polynesian islands with the other eastern islands radiating out from them.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“(Projections onto fewer dimensions yielded similar results, with some clusters beginning to disappear in the range 12–15 dimensions, as predicted by the Tracy-Widom analysis.)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“This filtering resulted in the loss of 60,377 SNPs (8.75% of the total 689,899 SNPs), leaving 629,522 SNPs across all populations for computation of population allele frequency statistics.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“The latter calculation reduced the standard errors for the range expansion statistic on islands settled subsequent to western Polynesia, i.e. the eastern Polynesian islands; nevertheless, the general ordering of islands in the range expansion was the same for both calculations (see comparison Supplementary Fig. 14).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“As discussed above, modern Pacific islanders are often admixed, possessing European and occasionally Native American and African ancestries (Supplementary Fig. 32).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
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In the paper
“our settlement dates (1140 CE on Fatu Hiva in the Marquesas, or 28.4 generations before 1989) agree with the genealogical oral histories of many Pacific islanders themselves (1005 CE, or 29 generations before 1875, on Fatu Hiva) 27. In the Tuamotus our dates (1110 CE, or 29.3 generations before 1989) agree even more closely with island’s oral histories (1125 CE, or 28 generations before 1965)44.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [27] Handy, E. S. C. The Native Culture in the Marquesas (The Bishop Museum, 1923).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [44] Mulrooney, M. A. An island-wide assessment of the chronology of settlement and land use on Rapa Nui (Easter Island) based on radiocarbon data. J. Archaeol. Sci. 40, 4377–4399 (2013). source
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In the paper
“A few Pacific island individuals, particularly in the Marquesas, were found to also have >5% East Asian ancestry in the ADMIXTURE results.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
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In the paper
“We find deviations from our settlement tree only for 3 of its branches: Mangareva – Raivavae (migration from Tahiti), Mangareva – Palliser (migration from Tahiti), and North Marquesas – Palliser (migration from Tahiti and also from the Cooks).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“An elbow61 was found in the cross-validation error plot at K = 7 clusters, with larger numbers of clusters delivering little improvement (Supplementary Fig. 32).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
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In the paper
“We have shown that these particular islands also have high levels of homozygosity (Supplementary Figs. 25–27), which should increase the power to detect trait associations, and significant IBD, enabling IBD mapping, another useful approach51.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [51] Buck Te Rangi Hīroa, P. H. Vikings of the Sunrise (J. B. Lippincott, 1938).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
boostedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“The number of significant (p > 0.05) dimensions for the genotype frequency matrix, described above, was determined (n = 14) using a Tracy-Widom distribution57 and verified via a scree plot70.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“The pattern confirms the results of our drift statistics; Mangareva is the island most recently connected to Rapa Nui, while Samoa, the root of the expansion into remote Polynesia, is the most archaic connection.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“Trends of increasing IBD sharing along the course of the inferred settlement chain (see the map in Extended Data Fig. 5) are evident, but there is significant noise.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“Not removing these outliers does not change our island settlement dates significantly, but, by distorting the tail of the exponential decay distributions, does increase our standard error”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“Begin with the island with the most potential parents (at the end of the range expansion) (Fig. 2B) or in other words the largest ψ, Rapa Nui.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“Removing all entries corresponding to λ values that have standard errors above .07 (representing errors larger than 15% of the average λ value), creates a matrix of more precise generation values, but with some missing entries.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“although the same settlement sequence is also returned when using the latter metric instead (Supplementary Fig. 12)”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
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In the paper
“finally to the widely separated, but genetically connected, megalithic statue-building cultures of the Marquesas (Te Henua ‘Enana) Islands in the north, Raivavae in the south, and Easter Island (Rapa Nui), the easternmost of the Polynesian islands, settled in approximately 1200 CE via Mangareva.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Abstract
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In the paper
“The Austronesian-speaking settlers of the western Pacific (Fiji, Tonga, and Samoa) went on to people the widely dispersed islands in the vast ocean to their east through extraordinary voyages of exploration and settlement2,20.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [2] Kirch, P. V. On the Road of the Winds (Univ. of California Press, 2017). source
- Not matchedcites [20] Emory, K. P. The Tuamotuan creation charts by Paiore. J. Polynesian Soc. 48, 1–29 (1939).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
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In the paper
“who trace their linguistic origins to Taiwan9”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [9] Gray, R. D., Drummond, A. J. & Greenhill, S. J. Language phylogenies reveal expansion pulses and pauses in Pacific settlement. Science 323, 479–483 (2009). source
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In the paper
“Recent movement between islands, such as post-settlement trade contact, can introduce small numbers of longer, inter-island IBD segments, shifting the estimated divergence time towards the present, so we fit a truncated exponential.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
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In the paper
“Instead, each successive principal component captures the genetic drift of a particular island or island group (Fig. 1b, c and Supplementary Fig. 2), illustrating that genetic variance between these islands is dominated by their founder effects, not by diffusion clines or migration gradients.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dimensionality of Polynesian genetics
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In the paper
“When constructing a population tree, this means that our dataset contains not only the terminal (leaf) nodes, but also the internal nodes, and we know their hierarchy from the ψ-statistic.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Tree building and path reconstruction
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In the paper
“Quality control filters were applied across all sampled individuals using the Plink 1.9 package53, removing individuals with >1% of genotyped sites missing (mind .01), removing genotyped sites missing in >1% of individuals (geno .01), and removing sites (18 SNPs) with extreme deviations from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (p-value less than 10e-110).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data curation
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In the paper
“REAP55 was used to determine kinship coefficients using the ADMIXTURE clustering results discussed below; individuals with a kinship coefficient of >.2 (first degree relatives) were iteratively removed.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data curation
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In the paper
“This final leg had been suggested by some based on similarities between the Mangarevan and Rapanui languages48, and by similarities in their traditional stone ceremonial platforms49.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [48] Dickinson, W. Pacific atoll living: how long already and until when. Geol. Soc. Am. Today 19, 4–10 (2009). source
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [49] Fischer, S. R. Mangarevan doublets: preliminary evidence for proto-southeastern Polynesian. Ocean. Linguist. 40, 112–124 (2001). source
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In the paper
“Settlers also fanned out from Rarotonga northeast to the Society Islands (represented by Tahiti in our dataset but also containing the culturally significant island Raʻiātea) around 1050 CE, thence northeast to the Tuamotu Archipelago (represented by Mataiva in the Palliser group in our dataset) by 1110 CE.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
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In the paper
“Local approvals for engagement with the Rapa Nui community were obtained from the mayor (Pedro Pablo Edmunds Paoa) of the municipality of Easter Island, and the study was registered with the National Corporation for Indigenous Development (CONADI), in accordance with the indigenous law No. 19.253.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“The guidelines of the UNESCO International Declaration on Human Genetic Data and the Declaration of Helsinki were followed throughout the study.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“Note that our reconstruction of the settlement path is independent of these date estimates, which are overlaid upon it, and is more robust to later sporadic contact than IBD distributions are”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Background > Dating
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In the paper
“No statistical methods were used to predetermine sample size.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data reporting
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In the paper
“This study was also approved by the Council of Polynesian Elders for the community of Rapa Nui, along with local educational institutions, including the Lyceum Hoŋa’a o te Mana and the Lorenzo Baeza school for adults.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“At this time the widely scattered Tuamotu hub and other critical atolls in the expansion path (e.g. Nororotu in the Austral group), would have only recently emerged above falling sea levels (900 CE) and finished solidifying their topsoil and forests44,47”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [44] Mulrooney, M. A. An island-wide assessment of the chronology of settlement and land use on Rapa Nui (Easter Island) based on radiocarbon data. J. Archaeol. Sci. 40, 4377–4399 (2013). source
- Not matchedcites [47] Walworth, M. The Language of Rapa Iti (Univ. Hawaii, 2015).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
hedged- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“From this base, we find that settlers continued south around 1190 CE to Rapa Iti (a branch recently hypothesized from linguistic evidence46) and, separately, east to the smaller Cook Islands (Mauke and Atiu in our dataset).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [46] Di Piazza, A., Di Piazza, P. & Pearthree, E. Sailing virtual canoes across Oceania: revisiting island accessibility. J. Archaeol. Sci. 34, 1219–1225 (2007). source
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In the paper
“These clouds on its prominent mountain make the island visible for long distances at sea and probably facilitated its discovery45.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [45] Pirazzoli, P. A. & Montaggioni, L. F. Late Holocene sea-level changes in the northwest Tuamotu islands, French Polynesia. Quat. Res. 25, 350–368 (1986). source
hedgedconditional- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“After merging reference sequence data with sample genotyped data, strand inconsistencies were flipped when unambiguous, while ambiguous SNPs were removed, leaving 689,899 SNP sites.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data curation
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In the paper
“research/ethics approval and permits were obtained from the following institutions: Stanford University Institutional Review Board (IRB approval No. 20839), Oxford University Tropical Research Ethics Committee (reference No. 537–14), and the Scientific Ethics Committee of the Catholic University of Chile (reference No. 1971092).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“The average call rate was 98.5% for all newly genotyped samples.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Genotyping
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In the paper
“Written informed consent was obtained from all participants”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“Community engagement, including pre-participation presentations and post-participation return of results, were conducted throughout the project.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Sample collection and approvals
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In the paper
“Because allele frequencies drifted during the Pacific island settlement process, some minor alleles in Taiwan would have become major alleles by the time the settlers reached western Polynesia (see Supplementary Discussion ‘On psi‘), so the intermediate repolarization using Tonga, Samoa, and Fiji as an outgroup increased the resolution of the range expansion statistic (reduced standard errors) for”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
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In the paper
“Thus, a genome-wide haplotype vector constructed by assembling all chromosomes sequentially into a single row vector will switch phase arbitrarily across chromosome boundaries and so is already a mixture of an individual’s two true parental haplotypes.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Because ancestries fully (or partially) introduced via colonial settlement did not necessarily follow the same island settlement process (or founder sizes and dates) as the original Polynesian settlement, such ancestries need to be distinguished, necessitating an ancestry-specific approach65, cf. Supplementary Figs. 10, 20.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Admixture analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [65] D’Arcy, P. The Chinese Pacifics: a brief historical review. J. Pacific Hist. 49, 396–420 (2014). source
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“Together with even more distant North and South Marquesas and Rapa Nui, each also with inferred settlement stemming from the Tuamotus, Raivavae had an ancient tradition of carving monumental anthropomorphic statues in stone. No other Austral island had these50; indeed, such immense sculptures are found only on those far-flung islands that we now, however, show to had a common genetic source in the”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [50] Flenley, J. & Bahn, P. The Enigmas of Easter Island (Oxford Univ. Press, 2003).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plaincorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“From western Polynesia, Polynesian voyagers reached Rarotonga in the Cook Islands around 830 CE, having passed from Samoa along a route shared with the settlement of Fiji and Tonga.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
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In the paper
“The independence of drift between these separated, small island populations leads us to expect some deviation from Hardy-Weinberg in Polynesia, so we do not apply a typical threshold here.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data curation
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In the paper
“The experiments were not randomized and the investigators were not blinded to allocation during experiments and outcome assessment.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Data reporting
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In the paper
“Fortunately, our dataset has T values of 25–30 generations and N values in the thousands21, so we do not fall into these problematic regimes.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not matchedcites [21] Hunt, T. & Lipo, C. The Statues that Walked (Free Press, 2011).
Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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- Not matched
A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“consistent with Tahiti’s recent role as the capital of French Polynesia.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
hedgedcorrelational- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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In the paper
“This works because the per generation recombination rate is constant over time, so the distance from an ancestral population to any of its sampled contemporary descendants is the same when measured by segment length distributions.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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The paper states this without a source or data behind it here, so there is nothing to check it against. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“In addition, the shape of the IBD length distribution (decay rate) changes steadily each generation. It does not depend, as genetic drift does, on the fluctuations, which are generally unknown, of the historical population sizes.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
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In the paper
“The model of a Poisson process of recombination events along a continuous genome holds for small IBD segment lengths, viz. T > 5, but for more recent relatedness, leading to very long IBD segments, one must consider the finite size of the chromosomes themselves when computing the IBD length distribution101.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [101] Palamara, P. F., Lencz, T., Darvasi, A. & Pe'er, I. Length distributions of identity by descent reveal fine-scale demographic history. Am. J. Hum. Genet. 91, 809–822 (2012). source
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What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This alters the amplitude, but not the decay rate shape parameter λ, of the exponential in Supplementary Fig. 22A, or, equivalently, the intercept, but not the slope of the lines in Supplementary Fig. 22B; thus demonstrating graphically that λ is robust to noise (errors) in ancestry normalization.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
boosteddirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
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A conclusion the paper draws from its own results — it cites no other source for it, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“However, because of the founding bottlenecks for each island, there is some intra-island IBD shared between pairs of individuals on the island (Supplementary Figs. 25, 26), so some recombination events will be non-productive.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: unclear — It is unclear whether the paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“This holds in our case because all samples were taken from contemporary populations, and so all are leaf nodes of the ancestry tree dating to the same period (the present).”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Identity-by-descent (IBD) analyses
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
In the paper
“The markers are bootstrapped together as long contiguous blocks to preserve the effects of linkage on the variance of the estimates35.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
What the sources say
- Not checked — no full text of the sourcecites [35] Nei, M. & Kumar, S. Molecular Evolution and Phylogenetics (Oxford Univ. Press, 2000). source
plaindirect- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: fails — The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
Probably not a substantial claim. The paper’s conclusions may not depend on it.
What the paper did — it cites no source for this, so there is none to check. The quote shows it is in the paper.
In the paper
“That our graph is acyclic can be shown (proof derived in Supplementary Discussion ‘On the acyclicity of psi’) from the formal definition of ψ, which defines our edge directionality.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Migration network reconstruction
plain- Asserted: passes — The authors put it forward as true.
- Checkable: passes — It can be checked against evidence.
- Load-bearing: passes — The paper’s conclusions depend on it.
- Based: passes — The paper gives a reason why it holds.
It may state two separate claims as one.
The paper relies on this without support.
The order in which Polynesian islands were settled was unknown before this study.
“but the sequences of islands settled remain unknown and their timings disputed.”
The paper relies on this without support.
Little was known about the human genetic structure of Polynesia before this study.
“little is known about the human genetic structure of this oceanic expanse”
The paper relies on this without support.
Rapa Nui had no large-scale population exchanges with other islands.
“which are believed to have had no large-scale population exchanges with other islands”
The paper relies on this without support.
The sampled individuals are representative of their island populations.
“using genome-wide data from merely 430 contemporary individuals from 21 key Pacific island populations”
The authors state this as an assumption.
Recombination occurs without interference.
“Assuming no interference, recombination can be modeled as a Poisson process occurring along the genome at a rate of one recombination break per generation per unit of genomic length (measured in Morgans) 96.”
The authors state this as an assumption.
The constant added to the parent-child split time in the decay rate λ is common across these remote islands and founder events.
“which we assume is common for these remote islands and founder events and calibrate empirically, see Extended Data Table 1”
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Concordantly, the ancient individuals remained most closely related to present-day Rapanui even when we considered a broader set of Oceanian reference individuals7,39 (Supplementary Fig. 12, Supplementary Table 5 and Supplementary Information section 7).”
From Ancient Rapanui genomes reveal resilience and pre-European contact with the Americas (2024) · cites this paper as [39]
In the citing paper
“This matches previous radiocarbon and genetic timing estimates of the settlement of the Society Islands in ~1025–1120 AD and the 11th century respectively (23, 4).”
From Message in a bottleneck: Nested founder effects from French Polynesia to Rapa Nui and Hawaiʻi (2026) · cites this paper as [4]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
Each contradiction between two passages listed here was confirmed by an independent check.
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
“the F4 statistic was computed for each site using the formula of Patterson et al.35 F^4A,B;C,D=p~A−p~Cp~B−p~C”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Methods > Polynesian ancestry-specific allele frequency analyses
“The F4 statistic is expected to be zero unless groups A, B do not form a separate clade from C, D within the actual population tree.”
Rated minor: it would not touch a result — a value no result rests on, a p-value that stays on the same side of the significance level, or a conflict that is clerical, resolved elsewhere in the paper, or outside its own findings.
In the paper
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
“a range expansion beginning in Samoa and propagating out across eastern Polynesia through a series of telescoping founder events from the 11th through 12th centuries.”
§ Paths and timings of the peopling of Polynesia inferred from genomic networks > Discussion
“From western Polynesia, Polynesian voyagers reached Rarotonga in the Cook Islands around 830 CE, having passed from Samoa along a route shared with the settlement of Fiji and Tonga.”
Citations
Cites
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Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R., & Friedman, J. (2009) · Springer Series in Statistics · doi:10.1007/978-0-387-84858-7 · Cited by 25,970
Bootstrap methods: another look at the jackknife
Efron, B. (1979) · The Annals of Statistics · doi:10.1214/aos/1176344552 · Cited by 17,602
Molecular Evolutionary Genetics
Nei, M. (1987) · Columbia University Press eBooks · doi:10.7312/nei-92038 · Cited by 16,583
Second-generation PLINK: rising to the challenge of larger and richer datasets
Chang, C. C., Chow, C. C., Tellier, L. C., Vattikuti, S., Purcell, S. M., & Lee, J. J. (2015) · Gigascience · doi:10.1186/s13742-015-0047-8 · Cited by 12,709
UMAP: Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection
McInnes, L., Healy, J., Saul, N., & Großberger, L. (2018) · Journal of Open Source Software · doi:10.21105/joss.00861 · Cited by 9,826
Molecular Evolution and Phylogenetics
Nei, M., & Kumar, S. (2000) · doi:10.1093/oso/9780195135848.001.0001 · Cited by 8,012
A map of human genome variation from population-scale sequencing.
The 1000 Genomes Project Consortium (2010) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature09534 · Cited by 7,877
Bootstrap Methods and their Application
Davison, A. C., & Hinkley, D. V. (1997) · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511802843 · Cited by 7,350
Research works printed but not linked: 8
- Kahō‘āli‘i Keauokalani, K. Kepelino’s traditions of Hawaii. Bernice P. Bishop Museum Bulletin 206 (1932).
- Emory, K. P. The Tuamotuan creation charts by Paiore. J. Polynesian Soc. 48, 1–29 (1939).
- Hunt, T. & Lipo, C. The Statues that Walked (Free Press, 2011).
- Steadman, D. W. Extinction and Biogeography of Tropical Pacific Birds (Univ. of Chicago Press, 2006).
- Flenley, J. & Bahn, P. The Enigmas of Easter Island (Oxford Univ. Press, 2003).
- Holmes, S. & Huber, W. Modern Statistics for Modern Biology (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2019).
- Crowe, A. Pathway of the Birds (Univ. Hawai'i Press, 2018).
- Anderson, A., Kennett, D. J., Culleton, B. J. & Southon, J. in Taking the High Ground (eds. Anderson, A. & Kennett, D. J.) 288 (ANU Press, 2012).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Greenacre, M. J., Groenen, P. J. F., Hastie, T. J., D’Enza, A. I., Markos, A., & Tuzhilina, E. (2022) · Nature Reviews Methods Primers · doi:10.1038/s43586-022-00184-w · Cited by 2,137
Arrieta‐Bolaños, E., Hernández-Zaragoza, D. I., & Barquera, R. (2023) · Frontiers in Genetics · doi:10.3389/fgene.2023.866407 · Cited by 140
“…profiles of Polynesian, Rapa Nui, and Maori population samples to those of Taiwanese populations are further examples of the capacity of HLA data to detect these sequential, long-range migration patterns as previously noted (Friedlaender et al., 2008; Riccio et al., 2013; Ioannidis et al., 2021).”
BackgroundThe Role of Genome Sequencing in Neonatal Intensive Care Units
Kingsmore, S. F., & Cole, F. S. (2022) · Annual Review of Genomics and Human Genetics · doi:10.1146/annurev-genom-120921-103442 · Cited by 101
A loss-of-function IFNAR1 allele in Polynesia underlies severe viral diseases in homozygotes
Bastard, P., Hsiao, K.-C., Zhang, Q., Choin, J., Best, E., Chen, J., Gervais, A., Bizien, L., Materna, M., Harmant, C., et al. (2022) · Journal of Experimental Medicine · doi:10.1084/jem.20220028 · Cited by 70
“However, the variant was present in the Austral Islands ( n = 211, AF = 0.00474), the Society Islands ( n = 764, AF = 0.000654), the Marquesas Islands ( n = 199, AF = 0.00251), the Cook Islands ( n = 70, AF = 0.0143), and Fiji ( n = 24, AF = 0.0208; Fig.”
BackgroundMethodInfluentialSelf-citationGenomic perspectives on human dispersals during the Holocene
Stoneking, M., Arias, L., Liu, D., Oliveira, S., Pugach, I., & Rodriguez, J. J. R. B. (2023) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2209475119 · Cited by 35
“Other studies suggested back migrations from Polynesia (121) and native American ancestry that arrived in Polynesia before European contact (122), although the latter relies on analyses of modern samples and so far has not received any support from ancient DNA (123).”
Metadata
- Authors
- Ioannidis, A. G., Blanco-Portillo, J., Sandoval, K., Hagelberg, E., Barberena-Jonas, C., Hill, A. V. S., Rodríguez-Rodríguez, J. E., Fox, K., Robson, K., Haoa-Cardinali, S., Quinto-Cortés, C. D., Miquel-Poblete, J. F., Auckland, K., Parks, T., Sofro, A. S. M., Ávila-Arcos, M. C., Sockell, A., Homburger, J. R., Eng, C., Huntsman, S., Burchard, E. G., Gignoux, C. R., Verdugo, R. A., Moraga, M., Bustamante, C. D., Mentzer, A. J., & Moreno-Estrada, A.
- Affiliations
- Centro de Investigación y de Estudios Avanzados del Instituto Politécnico Nacional (MX)
- University of Oslo (NO)
- Centre for Human Genetics (GB)
- University of California San Diego (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- Yarsi University (ID)
- Stanford University (US)
- University of California, San Francisco (US)
- University of Colorado Denver (US)
- University of Chile (CL)
- Corresponding author
- Ioannidis, Alexander G.
- ORCID
- Ioannidis, Alexander G.
- Blanco-Portillo, Javier
- Sandoval, Karla
- Hagelberg, Erika
- Barberena-Jonas, Carmina
- Hill, Adrian V. S.
- Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Juan Esteban
- Fox, Keolu
- Robson, Kathryn
- Quinto-Cortés, Consuelo D.
- Auckland, Kathryn
- Parks, Tom
- Sockell, Alexandra
- Homburger, Julian R.
- Eng, Celeste
- Huntsman, Scott
- Burchard, Esteban G.
- Gignoux, Christopher R.
- Verdugo, Ricardo A.
- Moraga, Mauricio
- Bustamante, Carlos D.
- Mentzer, Alexander J.
- Moreno-Estrada, Andrés
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2021-09-22
- Volume
- 597
- Issue
- 7877
- Pages
- 522-526
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- PMC
- PMC9710236
- OpenAlex
- W3201145195
- Cited by
- 124
- References
- 116
- Citations by year
- 2026: 11 · 2025: 55 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 2
- FWCI
- 8.18
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Wellcome Trust (106289/Z/14/Z)
- National Institute for Health and Care Research (CL-2018-13-007)
- U.S. National Library of Medicine (T15LM007033)
- Topics
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Forensic and Genetic Research
- Social Sciences › Anthropology › Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Genetics › Genetic diversity and population structure
- Keywords
- gene networks, Marquesas Islands, Raivavae, Easter Island, Mangareva, Cook Islands, Society Islands, Tuamotu Archipelago, Pacific Island populations, megalithic culture
- MeSH terms
- Pacific Island People, Female, Humans, Male, Polynesia, Genome, Human, Genomics, History, Medieval, Human Migration
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
A language model drew the claims from the paper on 2026-09-28, under version 3 of the claim definition (prompt extract-v3).
A second model labelled each claim on 2026-09-28 (model jev-1.13-20260917, definition revision gold-guideline-v0.2).
Cited sources are checked with a language model’s help (gpt-6-sol).
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
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