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Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
Open accessAbstract
The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (T crit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed T crit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding T crit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of T crit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions 2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity 3,4.
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“Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity36 and causing widespread leaf damage34.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
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“Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2), exposing the forest34 and local peoples35 to potentially unbearable heat.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
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Metadata
- Authors
- Doughty, C. E., Keany, J. M., Wiebe, B. C., Rey-Sanchez, C., Carter, K. R., Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Goulden, M. L., da Rocha, H. R., Miller, S. D., Malhi, Y., Fauset, S., Gloor, E., Slot, M., Oliveras Menor, I., Crous, K. Y., Goldsmith, G. R., & Fisher, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Michigan Technological University (US)
- James Cook University (AU)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- State University of New York (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
- Western Sydney University (AU)
- Chapman University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Doughty, Christopher E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2023-08-23
- Volume
- 621
- Issue
- 7977
- Pages
- 105-111
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4386099976
- Cited by
- 247
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 88 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 14
- FWCI
- 25.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- pearl.plymouth.ac.uk
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
- Chapman University Digital Commons (Chapman University) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Commons - Michigan Tech (Michigan Technological University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC19K0206, 80NSSC20K0216)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R005079/1, NE/V008366/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Photosynthetic Processes and Mechanisms
- Keywords
- tropical forests, critical temperature threshold, global warming, ECOSTRESS, tipping points, tree mortality, RCP8.5
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Sustainable Development, Australia, Brazil, Photosynthesis, Puerto Rico, Trees, Tropical Climate, Plant Leaves, Uncertainty, Extreme Heat, Global Warming, Forests
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