The DOI matches its Crossref record; 47 of the 47 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds
Open accessAbstract
The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (T crit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed T crit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding T crit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of T crit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions 2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity 3,4.
Overview
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Verification
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Rising temperatures will increase thermal stress, potentially reducing forest productivity and carbon storage capacity36 and causing widespread leaf damage34.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
The cited source says what the claim attributes to it.
In the citing paper
“Maximum temperatures during the dry season follow a similar trend, rising across most of the biome (Extended Data Fig. 2), exposing the forest34 and local peoples35 to potentially unbearable heat.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [34]
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Citations
Cites
Photosynthetic Response and Adaptation to Temperature in Higher Plants
Berry, J., & Bjorkman, O. (1980) · Annual Review of Plant Physiology · doi:10.1146/annurev.pp.31.060180.002423 · Cited by 3,063
Why Mountain Passes are Higher in the Tropics
Janzen, D. H. (1967) · The American Naturalist · doi:10.1086/282487 · Cited by 2,056
Drought Sensitivity of the Amazon Rainforest
Phillips, O. L., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Lewis, S. L., Fisher, J. B., Lloyd, J., López‐González, G., Malhi, Y. S., Monteagudo, A. L., Peacock, J., Quesada, C. A., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1164033 · Cited by 1,854
Self-citationGillespie, A. R., Rokugawa, S., Matsunaga, T., Cothern, J. S., Hook, S. J., & Kahle, A. B. (1998) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/36.700995 · Cited by 1,464
Amazonia as a carbon source linked to deforestation and climate change
Gatti, L. V., Basso, L. S., Miller, J. B., Gloor, M., Gatti Domingues, L., Cassol, H. L. G., Tejada, G., Aragão, L. E. O. C., Nobre, C., Peters, W., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03629-6 · Cited by 1,081
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Tebaldi, C., Debeire, K., Eyring, V., Fischer, E. M., Fyfe, J. C., Friedlingstein, P., Knutti, R., Lowe, J. A., O’Neill, B. C., Sanderson, B. M., et al. (2021) · Earth System Dynamics · doi:10.5194/esd-12-253-2021 · Cited by 939
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests
Hubau, W., Lewis, S. L., Phillips, O. L., Affum-Baffoe, K., Beeckman, H., Cuní-Sanchez, A., Daniels, A. K., Ewango, C. E. N., Fauset, S., Mukinzi, J. M., et al. (2020) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0 · Cited by 782
Self-citationDeath from drought in tropical forests is triggered by hydraulics not carbon starvation
Rowland, L. M., da Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D. R., Oliveira, R. S., Binks, O. J., de Oliveira, A. A. R., Pullen, A. M., Doughty, C. E., Metcalfe, D. B., Vasconcelos, S. S., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature15539 · Cited by 698
Self-citationJimenez-Munoz, J. C., Mattar, C., Barichivich, J., Santamaría-Artigas, A., Takahashi, K. I., Malhi, Y. S., Sobrino, J. A., & van der Schrier, G. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep33130 · Cited by 675
Self-citationDrought impact on forest carbon dynamics and fluxes in Amazonia
Doughty, C. E., Metcalfe, D. B., Girardin, C. A. J., Amézquita, F. F., Galiano, D., Huasco, W. H., Silva‐Espejo, J. E., Araujo‐Murakami, A., da Costa, M. C., Rocha, W., et al. (2015) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature14213 · Cited by 645
Self-citationFisher, J. B., Lee, B., Purdy, A. J., Halverson, G. H., Dohlen, M. B., Cawse‐Nicholson, K., Wang, A., Anderson, R. G., Aragon, B., Arain, M. A., et al. (2020) · Water Resources Research · doi:10.1029/2019wr026058 · Cited by 524
Self-citationDrake, J. E., Tjoelker, M. G., Vårhammar, A., Medlyn, B. E., Reich, P. B., Leigh, A., Pfautsch, S., Blackman, C. J., López, R., Aspinwall, M. J., et al. (2018) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.14037 · Cited by 449
Self-citationSEASONALITY OF WATER AND HEAT FLUXES OVER A TROPICAL FOREST IN EASTERN AMAZONIA
da Rocha, H. R., Goulden, M. L., Miller, S. D., Menton, M., Pinto, L. D., de Freitas, H. C., & Figueira, A. M. E. S. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6001 · Cited by 444
Self-citationda Costa, A. C. L., Galbraith, D. R., de Almeida, S. S., Portela, B. T. T., Costa, M., Silva, J. D. A., Braga, A. P., Gonçalves, P. H. L., de Oliveira, A. A., Fisher, R. A., et al. (2010) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2010.03309.x · Cited by 364
Thermal limits of leaf metabolism across biomes
O’Sullivan, O. S., Heskel, M., Reich, P. B., Tjoelker, M. G., Weerasinghe, L. K., Penillard, A., Zhu, L., Egerton, J. J. G., Bloomfield, K. J., Creek, D., et al. (2016) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13477 · Cited by 349
Are tropical forests near a high temperature threshold?
Doughty, C. E., & Goulden, M. L. (2008) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1029/2007jg000632 · Cited by 343
Self-citationDIEL AND SEASONAL PATTERNS OF TROPICAL FOREST CO 2 EXCHANGE
Goulden, M. L., Miller, S. D., da Rocha, H. R., Menton, M., de Freitas, H. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., & de Sousa, C. A. D. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6008 · Cited by 340
Self-citationKealy, P. S., & Hook, S. J. (1993) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/36.317447 · Cited by 255
Jin, M. S., & Liang, S. (2006) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli3720.1 · Cited by 253
Hulley, G., & Hook, S. J. (2010) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2010.2063034 · Cited by 234
BIOMETRIC AND MICROMETEOROLOGICAL MEASUREMENTS OF TROPICAL FOREST CARBON BALANCE
Miller, S. D., Goulden, M. L., Menton, M., da Rocha, H. R., de Freitas, H. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., & de Sousa, C. A. D. (2004) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/02-6005 · Cited by 221
Self-citationEmerging satellite observations for diurnal cycling of ecosystem processes
Xiao, J., Fisher, J. B., Hashimoto, H., Ichii, K., & Parazoo, N. C. (2021) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-021-00952-8 · Cited by 191
Self-citationHulley, G., Göttsche, F.-M., Rivera, G., Hook, S. J., Freepartner, R. J., Martin, M., Cawse-Nicholson, K. A., & Johnson, W. R. (2021) · IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing · doi:10.1109/tgrs.2021.3079879 · Cited by 181
Krause, G. H., Winter, K., Krause, B., Jahns, P., García, M., Aranda, J., & Virgo, A. (2010) · Functional Plant Biology · doi:10.1071/fp10034 · Cited by 167
Slot, M., Cala, D. S., Aranda, J., Virgo, A., Michaletz, S. T., & Winter, K. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14060 · Cited by 161
Self-citationReduced impact logging minimally alters tropical rainforest carbon and energy exchange
Miller, S. D., Goulden, M. L., Hutyra, L. R., Keller, M., SALESKA, S. R., Wofsy, S. C., Figueira, A. M. E. S., da Rocha, H. R., & de Camargo, P. B. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1105068108 · Cited by 152
Self-citationFauset, S., Freitas, H. C., Galbraith, D. R., Sullivan, M. J. P., Aidar, M. P. M., Joly, C. A., Phillips, O. L., Vieira, S. A., & Gloor, M. U. (2018) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13208 · Cited by 151
Self-citationEmpirical evidence for resilience of tropical forest photosynthesis in a warmer world
Smith, M. N., Taylor, T. C., van Haren, J., Rosolem, R., Restrepo-Coupe, N., Adams, J., Wu, J., de Oliveira, R. C., da Silva, R., de Araujo, A. C., et al. (2020) · Nature Plants · doi:10.1038/s41477-020-00780-2 · Cited by 135
Large scale tropical deforestation drives extreme warming
Zeppetello, L. R. V., Parsons, L. A., Spector, J. T., Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Masuda, Y. J., & Wolff, N. H. (2020) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab96d2 · Cited by 106
The Thermal Tolerances, Distributions, and Performances of Tropical Montane Tree Species
Feeley, K. J., Martínez‐Villa, J. A., Perez, T. M., Duque, A. S., Gonzalez, D. T., & Duque, Á. (2020) · Frontiers in Forests and Global Change · doi:10.3389/ffgc.2020.00025 · Cited by 102
Tiwari, R., Gloor, E. U., da Cruz, W. J. A., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Reis, S. M., Araújo, I., Krause, H., Slot, M., Winter, K., et al. (2020) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13770 · Cited by 98
Self-citationSpatial and temporal patterns of the recent warming of the Amazon forest
Jimenez-Munoz, J. C., Sobrino, J. A., Mattar, C., & Malhi, Y. S. (2013) · Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · doi:10.1002/jgrd.50456 · Cited by 96
Self-citationImaging canopy temperature: shedding (thermal) light on ecosystem processes
Still, C. J., Rastogi, B., Page, G. F. M., Griffith, D. M., Sibley, A. M., Schulze, M., Hawkins, L., Pau, S., Detto, M., & Helliker, B. R. (2021) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.17321 · Cited by 93
A model for leaf temperature decoupling from air temperature
Blonder, B. W., & Michaletz, S. T. (2018) · Agricultural and Forest Meteorology · doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2018.07.012 · Cited by 92
An In Situ Leaf and Branch Warming Experiment in the Amazon
Doughty, C. E. (2011) · Biotropica · doi:10.1111/j.1744-7429.2010.00746.x · Cited by 81
Self-citationSpatial and seasonal variation in leaf temperature within the canopy of a tropical forest
Rey‐Sánchez, C., Slot, M., Posada, J. M., & Kitajima, K. (2016) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr01427 · Cited by 76
Self-citationPhotosynthetic heat tolerance of shade and sun leaves of three tropical tree species
Slot, M., Krause, G. H., Krause, B., Hernández, G. G., & Winter, K. (2018) · Photosynthesis Research · doi:10.1007/s11120-018-0563-3 · Cited by 74
Self-citationTrees at the Amazonia-Cerrado transition are approaching high temperature thresholds
Araújo, I., Marimon, B. S., Scalon, M. C., Fauset, S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Tiwari, R., Galbraith, D. R., & Gloor, M. U. (2021) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abe3b9 · Cited by 57
Self-citationThermal safety margins of plant leaves across biomes under a heatwave
Kitudom, N., Fauset, S., Zhou, Y., Fan, Z., Li, M., He, M., Zhang, S., Xu, K., & Lin, H. (2021) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150416 · Cited by 54
Self-citationDickman, L. T., McDowell, N. G., Grossiord, C., Collins, A. D., Wolfe, B. T., Detto, M., Wright, S. J., Medina‐Vega, J. A., Goodsman, D. W., Rogers, A., et al. (2018) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.13501 · Cited by 48
Carter, K., Wood, T. E., Reed, S. C., Butts, K. M., & Cavaleri, M. A. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14134 · Cited by 46
Self-citationCrous, K. Y., Cheesman, A. W., Middleby, K. B., Rogers, E. I. E., Wujeska‐Klause, A., Bouet, A. Y. M., Ellsworth, D. S., Liddell, M. J., Cernusak, L. A., & Barton, C. V. M. (2023) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/tpad054 · Cited by 36
Self-citationGuha, A., Vharachumu, T., Khalid, M. F., Keeley, M., Avenson, T. J., & Vincent, C. (2021) · Plant Cell & Environment · doi:10.1111/pce.14215 · Cited by 24
Kivalov, S. N., & Fitzjarrald, D. R. (2019) · Boundary-Layer Meteorology · doi:10.1007/s10546-019-00460-5 · Cited by 18
Tiwari, R., Gloor, E. U., da Cruz, W. J. A., Marimon, B. S., Marimon-Junior, B. H., Reis, S. M., de Souza, I., Krause, G. H., Slot, M., Winter, K., et al. (2020) · doi:10.22541/au.158136983.31779076 · Cited by 18
Self-citationAchchige, Y. M. S., Volkova, L., Drinnan, A. N., & Weston, C. J. (2020) · Journal of Plant Ecology · doi:10.1093/jpe/rtaa081 · Cited by 10
SMAP L4 9 km EASE-Grid Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Geophysical Data, Version 3
Reichle, R. H., De Lannoy, G., Koster, R., Crow, W. T., & Kimball, J. (2017) · Earth Observing System Data and Information System · doi:10.5067/b59dt1d5umb4 · Cited by 7
Research works printed but not linked: 3
- IPCC. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).
- Wilson, E. & Raven, P. in Biodiversity (ed. Wilson, E. O.) Ch. 3 (National Academy Press, 1988).
- Sachs, J. Über die obere temperaturgränze der vegetation. Flora 47, 5–12 (1864).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Impacts of climate change on the fate of contaminants through extreme weather events
Bolan, S. S., Padhye, L. P., Jasemizad, T., Govarthanan, M., Karmegam, N., Wijesekara, H., Amarasiri, D., Hou, D., Zhou, P., Biswal, B. K., et al. (2023) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168388 · Cited by 771
Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system
Flores, B. M., Montoya, E., Sakschewski, B., Nascimento, N., Staal, A., Betts, R. A., Levis, C., Lapola, D. M., Esquível-Muelbert, A., Jakovac, C., et al. (2024) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06970-0 · Cited by 607
Slot, M., Rifai, S. W., Eze, C. E., & Winter, K. (2024) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.19806 · Cited by 90
Self-citationTen new insights in climate science 2024
Schaeffer, R., Schipper, E. L. F., Ospina, D., Mirazo, P., Alencar, A. A. C., Anvari, M., Artaxo, P. E., Biresselioğlu, M. E., Blome, T., Boeckmann, M., et al. (2025) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101285 · Cited by 82
Pierrat, Z., Magney, T. S., Richardson, W., Runkle, B. R. K., Diehl, J. L., Yang, X., Woodgate, W., Smith, W. K., Johnston, M. R., Ginting, Y. R. S., et al. (2025) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.20405 · Cited by 57
Self-citation
Metadata
- Authors
- Doughty, C. E., Keany, J. M., Wiebe, B. C., Rey-Sanchez, C., Carter, K. R., Middleby, K. B., Cheesman, A. W., Goulden, M. L., da Rocha, H. R., Miller, S. D., Malhi, Y., Fauset, S., Gloor, E., Slot, M., Oliveras Menor, I., Crous, K. Y., Goldsmith, G. R., & Fisher, J. B.
- Affiliations
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Michigan Technological University (US)
- James Cook University (AU)
- University of California, Irvine (US)
- State University of New York (US)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- University of Plymouth (GB)
- University of Leeds (GB)
- Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PA)
- Western Sydney University (AU)
- Chapman University (US)
- Corresponding author
- Doughty, Christopher E.
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature
- Published
- 2023-08-23
- Volume
- 621
- Issue
- 7977
- Pages
- 105-111
- ISSN
- 0028-0836 (ISSN-L)
- 1476-4687
- OpenAlex
- W4386099976
- Cited by
- 247
- References
- 47
- Citations by year
- 2026: 67 · 2025: 88 · 2024: 77 · 2023: 14
- FWCI
- 25.42
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- pearl.plymouth.ac.uk
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- White Rose Research Online (University of Leeds, The University of Sheffield, University of York) (acceptedVersion)
- ResearchOnline - JCU (James Cook University) (submittedVersion)
- PEARL (University of Plymouth) (submittedVersion)
- Chapman University Digital Commons (Chapman University) (submittedVersion)
- Digital Commons - Michigan Tech (Michigan Technological University) (submittedVersion)
- HAL (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC19K0206, 80NSSC20K0216)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R005079/1, NE/V008366/1)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Life Sciences › Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology › Molecular Biology › Photosynthetic Processes and Mechanisms
- Keywords
- tropical forests, critical temperature threshold, global warming, ECOSTRESS, tipping points, tree mortality, RCP8.5
- MeSH terms
- Acclimatization, Sustainable Development, Australia, Brazil, Photosynthesis, Puerto Rico, Trees, Tropical Climate, Plant Leaves, Uncertainty, Extreme Heat, Global Warming, Forests
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
