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Bilateral international migration flow estimates for 200 countries
Open accessAbstract
Data on stocks and flows of international migration are necessary to understand migrant patterns and trends and to monitor and evaluate migration-relevant international development agendas. Many countries do not publish data on bilateral migration flows. At least six methods have been proposed recently to estimate bilateral migration flows between all origin-destination country pairs based on migrant stock data published by the World Bank and United Nations. We apply each of these methods to the latest available stock data to provide six estimates of five-year bilateral migration flows between 1990 and 2015. To assess the resulting estimates, we correlate estimates of six migration measures from each method with equivalent reported data where possible. Such systematic efforts at validation have largely been neglected thus far. We show that the correlation between the reported data and the estimates varies widely among different migration measures, over space, and over time. We find that the two methods using a closed demographic accounting approach perform consistently better than the four other estimation approaches.
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“As a robustness check (see online Appendix: Supplemental Materials), we also produce estimates based on the “demographic account minimization closed” approach by Abel–Cohen. The latter approach provides the highest correlation with immigration rates in their validation exercise (0.84), but a substantially lower correlation with outmigration rates (0.30).”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Abel and Cohen 2019
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“For our main results, we select Abel–Cohen estimates based on the “demographic account pseudo Bayesian closed” method, which provides the largest correlation coefficient with “ground truth” validation sets for outmigration rates (0.44), and the second‐largest correlation coefficient for immigration rates (0.82).”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Abel and Cohen 2019
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“At the global level, thanks to new bilateral migration flow estimates provided by Abel and Cohen (2019), combined with UN birth and death rate estimates, it is possible to estimate national‐level turnover rates.”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Abel and Cohen 2019
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“A major challenge in estimating country‐level PTRs is related to data quality and availability: while birth and death rates are widely available over time and space, reliably estimating data on immigration and emigration flows at the country level is difficult (Abel and Cohen 2019; Abel and Sander 2014).”
From Demography: Fast and Slow (2022) · cites this paper as Abel and Cohen 2019
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Bilateral international migration flow estimates for 200 countries
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Metadata
- Authors
- Abel, G. J., & Cohen, J. E.
- Affiliations
- Shanghai University (CN)
- University of Chicago (US)
- Corresponding author
- Abel, Guy J.
- Venue
- Scientific Data
- Published
- 2019-06-17
- Volume
- 6
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 82-82
- ISSN
- 2052-4463 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC6572777
- OpenAlex
- W2951293227
- Cited by
- 129
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 14 · 2025: 20 · 2024: 25 · 2023: 17 · 2022: 23 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 10 · 2019: 2
- Type
- data paper
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Data (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- ePubWU Institutional Repository (Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- China National Funds for Distinguished Young Scientists (41650110483)
- National Science Foundation (DMS-1225529)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration, Refugees, and Integration
- Social Sciences › Demography › Migration, Health, Geopolitics, Historical Geography
- Keywords
- bilateral migration flows, international migration, origin-destination pairs, migration and development
- MeSH terms
- Data Analysis, Humans, Emigrants and Immigrants, Human Migration
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