The outlook for population growth
Open accessAbstract
Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?
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Reliance on TFR can lead to short-term fluctuations in estimated fertility forecasts that are especially impactful in countries with low fertility rates.
“Reliance on TFR can also lead to short-term fluctuations in estimated fertility forecasts that are especially impactful in countries with low fertility rates.”
From Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 (2024) · cites this paper as [18]
In “Fertility: The future outlook” (page unavailable), Lee explains that changes in the timing of childbearing can temporarily depress TFR, including in countries with low fertility. “Population Projections” (page unavailable) says such timing changes complicate fertility forecasting. The paper does not specifically say that reliance on TFR causes short-term fluctuations in forecasts or that the forecast effects are especially large in low-fertility countries. (LLM, conf=0.82)
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- Authors
- Lee, R.
- Affiliations
- University of California, Berkeley (US)
- Corresponding author
- Lee, Ronald
- ORCID
- Lee, Ronald
- Venue
- Science
- Published
- 2011-07-29
- Volume
- 333
- Issue
- 6042
- Pages
- 569-573
- ISSN
- 0036-8075 (ISSN-L)
- 1095-9203
- PMC
- PMC3155613
- OpenAlex
- W1986328020
- Cited by
- 415
- References
- 37
- Citations by year
- 2026: 13 · 2025: 30 · 2024: 54 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 37 · 2021: 31 · 2020: 17 · 2019: 16 · 2018: 25 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 31 · 2015: 24 · 2014: 28 · 2013: 34 · 2012: 19
- FWCI
- 10.89
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
- Locations
- Science (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (acceptedVersion)
- PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
- Funders
- National Institute on Aging (R37AG025247, P30 AG01283, P30AG012839)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › demographic modeling and climate adaptation
- Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Census and Population Estimation
- Keywords
- population projections, population growth, age distribution, old-age dependency ratio, United Nations population estimates, demographic uncertainty, public pensions, health policy, population policy
- MeSH terms
- Humans, Population, Population Growth
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