Cited by 50Artificial Intelligence in HealthcareArtificial Intelligence in Healthcare and EducationMachine Learning in Healthcare

AI-based diabetes care: risk prediction models and implementation concerns

Open access
Wang, Serena C. Y., Nickel, Grace, Venkatesh, Kaushik P., Raza, Marium M., Kvedar, Joseph C.·2024·npj Digital Medicine

Abstract

The utilization of artificial intelligence (AI) in diabetes care has focused on early intervention and treatment management. Notably, usage has expanded to predict an individual’s risk for developing type 2 diabetes. A scoping review of 40 studies by Mohsen et al. shows that while most studies used unimodal AI models, multimodal approaches were superior because they integrate multiple types of data. However, creating multimodal models and determining model performance are challenging tasks given the multi-factored nature of diabetes. For both unimodal and multimodal models, there are also concerns of bias with the lack of external validations and representation of race, age, and gender in training data. The barriers in data quality and evaluation standardization are ripe areas for developing new technologies, especially for entrepreneurs and innovators. Collaboration amongst providers, entrepreneurs, and researchers must be prioritized to ensure that AI in diabetes care is providing quality and equitable patient care.

AI snapshot

Written from the paper’s full text.

TL;DR

This commentary reviews AI-based risk prediction for type 2 diabetes, noting that multimodal models often outperform unimodal ones but face implementation barriers in data quality, bias, and evaluation standardization. It calls for diverse datasets, external validation, fairness metrics, and collaboration to ensure equitable diabetes care.

Key findings

  • In Mohsen et al.’s scoping review of 40 studies, most models were classical machine learning using electronic health records; 30 were unimodal and 10 were multimodal, with multimodal approaches shown to be superior.
  • One multimodal model combining genomic, metabolomic, and clinical risk factors predicted T2DM with an AUC of 0.96, compared with 0.586 for a genomics-only model and 0.798 for a clinical-only model.
  • The same XGBoost algorithm used in three unimodal studies produced widely disparate AUC values of 0.91, 0.83, and 0.679–11, reflecting differences in risk predictors and datasets.
  • Only five studies provided insights into model calibration and only five conducted external validations; most did not evaluate performance across demographic groups or use calibration and fairness metrics.

Methods

  • Design: a commentary/perspective that summarizes and interprets a scoping review by Mohsen et al. of 40 studies on AI-based diabetes risk prediction.
  • Data or sample: the 40 studies in the scoping review, including unimodal and multimodal models using EHR, multi-omics, medical imaging, genomic, metabolomic, and clinical data.
  • Main analysis: narrative synthesis of model performance (primarily AUC), implementation concerns such as bias and lack of validation, and recommendations for data quality and standardized evaluation.

Limitations

  • The paper states that determining the best-performing model is challenging because input risk predictors, datasets, evaluation metrics, and prediction horizons vary, so direct comparisons across studies must be considered carefully.
  • The paper states that many studies had demographic imbalance in gender, ethnicity, and age; few addressed calibration or external validation; and most did not assess disparities across demographic groups.
  • Evident from the text: this is a commentary rather than a primary systematic review, so its conclusions depend on the cited scoping review and selected examples.

Model-written summary. Check it against the paper before relying on it.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1038/s41746-024-01034-7

Cites

15 of 15 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Nothing to recompute.

Claims the paper makes

14 of 16 cited sources checked · 10 supported · 0 flagged · accuracy not yet measured

  • Premisecitation

    Black and Mexican Americans have an increased prevalence of diabetes compared to their white counterparts.

    “As Black and Mexican Americans have an increased prevalence of diabetes compared to their white counterparts, the omission of certain demographics in training models could perpetuate existing health inequities for already at-risk populations and introduce a high probability of bias14.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [14] Fang, L., Sheng, H., Tan, Y. & Zhang, Q. Prevalence of diabetes in the USA from the perspective of demographic characteristics, physical indicators and living habits based on NHANES 2009-2018. Front. Endocrinol. 14, 1088882 (2023). source
  • Premisecitation

    Most studies in the Mohsen et al. scoping review of 40 studies used unimodal AI models.

    “A scoping review of 40 studies by Mohsen et al. shows that while most studies used unimodal AI models, multimodal approaches were superior because they integrate multiple types of data.”
    • Also stated in: § Risk prediction · plain
      “Although a modest number (n = 10) studies adopted multimodal approaches (combining EHR with multi-omics or medical imaging data), these were shown to be superior to unimodal models (n = 30).”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Mohsen, F., Al-Absi, H. R. H., Yousri N. A., Hajj N. E., Shah Z. A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction. npj Digit. Med. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00933-5 (2023). source
  • Premisecitation

    AI is now being utilized to predict an individual's risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and potential complications.

    “Beyond intervention and treatment, AI is now being utilized to predict an individual’s risk for developing type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and potential complications.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Mohsen, F., Al-Absi, H. R. H., Yousri N. A., Hajj N. E., Shah Z. A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction. npj Digit. Med. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00933-5 (2023). source

      The Introduction and Results describe AI models used to predict individuals’ risk of developing T2DM. The Introduction also says precision prognostics aims to predict T2DM and its complications, but the review does not establish that the AI models it examines predict complications. (LLM, conf=0.85)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Premisecitation

    The XGBoost algorithm was used in three unimodal studies.

    “For example, the XGBoost algorithm—a machine learning algorithm that uses a sequentially iterative process to learn and correct previous errors—was used in three unimodal studies8.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [8] Chen, T., Guestrin, C. XGBoost: A scalable tree boosting system. In: Proc. 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ACM; 785–794. https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939785 (2016). source
  • Premisecitation

    Multimodal AI approaches were superior to unimodal models for diabetes risk prediction in the Mohsen et al. scoping review.

    “A scoping review of 40 studies by Mohsen et al. shows that while most studies used unimodal AI models, multimodal approaches were superior because they integrate multiple types of data.”
    • Also stated in: § Risk prediction · plain
      “Although a modest number (n = 10) studies adopted multimodal approaches (combining EHR with multi-omics or medical imaging data), these were shown to be superior to unimodal models (n = 30).”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Mohsen, F., Al-Absi, H. R. H., Yousri N. A., Hajj N. E., Shah Z. A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction. npj Digit. Med. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00933-5 (2023). source
  • May combine two claims. 5
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim. 4
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Most models in the Mohsen et al. review were classical machine learning models with electronic health records as the predominant data source.

    “Of these models, most were classical machine learning models with electronic health records as the predominant data source.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Mohsen, F., Al-Absi, H. R. H., Yousri N. A., Hajj N. E., Shah Z. A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction. npj Digit. Med. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00933-5 (2023). source
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Premisecitation

    The performance of the algorithms in the Mohsen et al. review was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) metric in most studies.

    “The performance of the algorithms was measured using the area under the curve (AUC) metric in most studies.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim1 of 1 sources checked
    • cites [5] Mohsen, F., Al-Absi, H. R. H., Yousri N. A., Hajj N. E., Shah Z. A scoping review of artificial intelligence-based methods for diabetes risk prediction. npj Digit. Med. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41746-023-00933-5 (2023). source
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisereasoning

    Although the same XGBoost algorithm was implemented, each of the three studies used different risk predictors and datasets, resulting in widely disparate AUC values of 0.91, 0.83, and 0.679-11.

    “Although the same algorithm was implemented, each study used different risk predictors and datasets, which resulted in widely disparate AUC values of 0.91, 0.83, and 0.679–11.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim2 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [8] Chen, T., Guestrin, C. XGBoost: A scalable tree boosting system. In: Proc. 22nd ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining. ACM; 785–794. https://doi.org/10.1145/2939672.2939785 (2016). source

      The Introduction identifies XGBoost as the tree-boosting system, so the paper supports identifying the algorithm. Section 6.2 describes this paper’s own datasets, and Table 3 reports an AUC of 0.8304 for a Higgs-dataset experiment. Neither passage establishes the three cited studies’ predictors, their AUC values of 0.91, 0.83 and 0.679, or the proposed reason those values differ. (LLM, conf=0.83)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
    • cites [11] Wu, Y. et al. Machine learning for predicting the 3-year risk of incident diabetes in Chinese adults. Front. Public Health 9, 626331 (2021). source

      The Results (Development of XGBoost Model) confirm that this study used XGBoost, but report XGBoost AUCs of 0.977 and 0.920, not the values listed in the citing sentence. The Results (Performance of the Stepwise Model; External Validation) report 0.910 and 0.830 for a stepwise model based on XGBoost-selected predictors, not for XGBoost itself. This paper does not establish that differences in predictors and datasets caused the disparities across three studies. (LLM, conf=0.86)

      Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing), S4 (based). May combine two claims.

    Interpretationnone given

    Developing multimodal models is extremely time-consuming, making it challenging to quickly and easily scale such models.

    “However, developing multimodal models is extremely time-consuming and as a result, it is challenging to quickly and easily scale such models.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
  • May combine two claims.

    Interpretationcitation

    The omission of certain demographics in training models could perpetuate existing health inequities for already at-risk populations and introduce a high probability of bias.

    “As Black and Mexican Americans have an increased prevalence of diabetes compared to their white counterparts, the omission of certain demographics in training models could perpetuate existing health inequities for already at-risk populations and introduce a high probability of bias14.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
    • Rests on an assumption: T2DM is a multifactorial disease impacted by biological, clinical, and socioeconomic factors.
  • May combine two claims.

    Premisecitation

    Most studies did not evaluate the algorithm's performance across different demographic groups or use calibration and fairness metrics to assess disparities in predictions across these groups.

    “Most studies did not evaluate the algorithm’s performance across different demographic groups or use calibration and fairness (e.g., demographic parity, equal opportunity) metrics to assess disparities in predictions across these groups12,13.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim0 of 2 sources checked
    • cites [12] Barocas, S., Hardt, M., Narayanan, A. Fairness and Machine Learning: Limitations and Opportunities. https://fairmlbook.org/pdf/fairmlbook.pdf (MIT Press., 2023).

      Couldn’t be matched to a paper in Crossref, so it can’t be checked.

    • cites [13] Bella, A., Ferri, C., Hernandez-Orallo, J., Ramirez-Quintana, M. J. Calibration of machine learning models. Handbook of Research on Machine Learning Applications and Trends: Algorithms, Methods, and Techniques. 128–146 (2010). source
  • Classified as probably not a substantial claim.

    Interpretationreasoning

    Direct comparisons across studies of multimodal models must be considered carefully due to biases such as variations in datasets, evaluation metrics, and prediction horizons.

    “Even with multimodal models, direct comparisons across studies must be considered carefully due to biases such as variations in datasets, evaluation metrics, and prediction horizons.”
    Quote in the paperSubstantial claim
  • Probably not a substantial claim: may not pass S3 (load-bearing).

    Interpretationreasoning

    There is a growing effort to create more individualized multimodal virtual representations of patients (digital twins) for chronic conditions such as T2DM.

    “Still, in light of promising outcomes from multimodal models for chronic conditions such as T2DM, there is a growing effort to create more individualized multimodal virtual representations of patients, also known as digital twins.”
    Quote in the paperNot a substantial claim
8 of 8
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Identifying high-risk individuals and personalizing prevention strategies and targeted treatments could delay or prevent the onset of diabetes and future health complications.

    “Identifying high-risk individuals and personalizing prevention strategies and targeted treatments could delay or prevent the onset of diabetes and future health complications.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    T2DM is a multifactorial disease impacted by biological, clinical, and socioeconomic factors.

    “T2DM is a multifactorial disease impacted by biological, clinical, and socioeconomic factors.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    External validation ensures models can generalize beyond specific datasets used for training.

    “External validation is also crucial to ensure models can generalize beyond specific datasets used for training.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Comprehensive and diverse data sets to train models are necessary to create accurate tools.

    “Comprehensive and diverse data sets to train models are necessary to create accurate tools.”
  • The paper relies on this without support.

    Universal evaluation protocols are necessary to mitigate the propagation of health inequities.

    “Universal evaluation protocols are also necessary to mitigate the propagation of health inequities.”
5 of 5

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • Machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches have demonstrated growing promise in diabetes risk prediction, complication detection and healthcare utilization forecasting.

    “More recently, machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches have demonstrated growing promise in diabetes risk prediction, complication detection and healthcare utilization forecasting [21–28].”

    From Machine learning-driven risk prediction for post-hospitalization diabetes case management: Integrating clinical and social determinants of health (2026) · cites this paper as [25]

    The Risk prediction section describes AI models for predicting type 2 diabetes, and the Introduction reports an AI system that detects diabetic retinopathy in screening images. The paper does not report healthcare utilization forecasting, so it supports only part of the attributed claim. (LLM, conf=0.88)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 1

  1. Barocas, S., Hardt, M., Narayanan, A. Fairness and Machine Learning: Limitations and Opportunities. https://fairmlbook.org/pdf/fairmlbook.pdf (MIT Press., 2023).

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Wang, S. C. Y., Nickel, G., Venkatesh, K. P., Raza, M. M., & Kvedar, J. C.
Affiliations
Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Wang, Serena C. Y.
Venue
npj Digital Medicine
Published
2024-02-15
Volume
7
Issue
1
Pages
36-36
ISSN
2398-6352 (ISSN-L)
OpenAlex
W4391839209
Cited by
50
References
15
Citations by year
2026: 20 · 2025: 26 · 2024: 4
FWCI
14.87
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • npj Digital Medicine (publishedVersion, cc-by)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (submittedVersion, cc-by)
  • DOAJ (DOAJ: Directory of Open Access Journals) (submittedVersion, cc-by-sa)
Topics
  • Health Sciences › Health Professions › Health Information Management › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Health Informatics › Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare and Education
  • Physical Sciences › Computer Science › Artificial Intelligence › Machine Learning in Healthcare
Keywords
type 2 diabetes prediction, multimodal AI, algorithmic bias, external validation, data quality, health equity, implementation barriers, early intervention

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