Protecting the Amazon forest and reducing global warming via agricultural intensification
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Abstract
Abstract The Amazon basin includes 550 M ha covered with rainforests, with 60% of this area being in Brazil. Conversion of rainforest for soybean production raises concerns about the degree to which Brazil can reconcile production and environmental goals. Here we investigated the degree to which intensification could help Brazil produce more soybean without further encroachment of the Amazon Forest. Our analysis shows that continuation of current trends in soybean yield and area would lead to conversion of additional 5.7 M ha of forests and savannas during the next 15 years, with an associated 2550 Mt of CO2eq released into the atmosphere. In contrast, acceleration of yield improvement, coupled with expansion of soybean area only in areas currently used for livestock production, would allow Brazil to achieve similar economic benefits without deforestation and with substantially lower global climate warming.
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As environmental impacts depend on where the expansion occurs, there have been reiterated assessments that oil palm may expand 'sustainably' in Colombia if only it replaces pastures.
“As environmental impacts depend on where the expansion occurs, there have been reiterated assessments that oil palm may expand”
From Beyond the “supply chain” framing: Cattle ranching as a vanishing mediator of deforestation and dispossession in the Brazilian and Colombian Amazon (2026) · cites this paper as Marin et al., 2022
The Production and land use change scenarios section (page unavailable) supports the general point that environmental impacts depend on where expansion occurs: it models soybean expansion onto pastures and grasslands in Brazil while avoiding deforestation. It does not assess oil palm expansion in Colombia or report repeated assessments that replacing pastures there would be sustainable. (LLM, conf=0.83)
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Cites
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Bastos Lima, M. G., & López, J. (2026) · World Development · doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2026.107532
- Authors
- Marin, F. R., Zanon, A. J., Monzon, J. P., Andrade, J. F., Silva, E. H. F. M., Richter, G. L., Antolin, L. A. S., Ribeiro, B. S. M. R., Ribas, G. G., Battisti, R., Heinemann, A. B., & Grassini, P.
- Affiliations
- Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (BR)
- University of Nebraska–Lincoln (US)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- Universidade Federal de Goiás (BR)
- Embrapa (BR)
- ORCID
- Venue
- Nature Sustainability
- Published
- 2022-10-10
- Volume
- 5
- Issue
- 12
- Pages
- 1018-1026
- ISSN
- 2398-9629 (ISSN-L)
- OpenAlex
- W4304084037
- Cited by
- 122
- References
- 3
- Citations by year
- 2026: 25 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 29 · 2023: 28 · 2022: 1
- FWCI
- 9.24
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Nature Sustainability (publishedVersion)
- Research Square (acceptedVersion, cc-by)
- Lincoln (University of Nebraska) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- Fulbright Program
- University of Nebraska-Lincoln (17/2551-0000775-1)
- International Plant Nutrition Institute
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (17/2551-0000775-1, 2021/00720,0, 17/50445-0, 2018/06396-7, 2021/, 17/20925-0)
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (17/2551-0000775-1, 300916/2018-3, 425174/2018-2 and 300916/2018-3, 2018‐3, 130972/2019-3, 2021/00720-0, 425174/2018-2, 2019-3)
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (2021/00720-0, 17/2551-0000775-1)
- Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Oil Palm Production and Sustainability
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Land Use and Ecosystem Services
- Keywords
- agricultural intensification, soybean production, yield improvement, CO2 emission reduction, deforestation, climate change mitigation, Brazil
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