La Niña forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current warming in 2011
Open accessAbstract
Unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were observed off the west coast of Australia in February-March 2011. Peak SST during a 2-week period were 5°C warmer than normal, causing widespread coral bleaching and fish kills. Understanding the climatic drivers of this extreme event, which we dub "Ningaloo Niño", is crucial for predicting similar events under the influence of global warming. Here we use observational data and numerical models to demonstrate that the extreme warming was mostly driven by an unseasonable surge of the poleward-flowing Leeuwin Current in austral summer, which transported anomalously warm water southward along the coast. The unusual intensification of the Leeuwin Current was forced remotely by oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections associated with the extraordinary 2010-2011 La Niña. The amplitude of the warming was boosted by both multi-decadal trends in the Pacific toward more La Niña-like conditions and intraseasonal variations in the Indian Ocean.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
The atmosphere, land surface and ocean all may have important driving roles in how and where prolonged heat events play out.
“From examples such as the 2003 MHW in the northern Mediterranean Sea (Garrabou et al. 2009), the 2011 Ningaloo Niño in Western Australia (Feng et al. 2013) and the 2012 MHW in the northwest Atlantic (Mills et al. 2013; Chen et al. 2014), it is clear that the atmosphere, land surface and ocean all may have important driving roles in how and where these prolonged heat events play out.”
From A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves (2016) · cites this paper as Feng et al. 2013
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Some simple solutions for heat‐induced tropical circulation
Gill, A. E. (1980) · Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society · doi:10.1002/qj.49710644905 · Cited by 4,394 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 25
- Walther G. R. et al. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389– 395 (2002). 11919621
- Conover D. O. & Present T. M. C. Countergradient variation in growth rate: compensation for length of the growing season among Atlantic silversides from different latitudes. Oecologia 83, 316– 324 (1990). 28313001
- Stenseth N. C. et al. Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science 297, 1292– 1296 (2002). 12193777
- Pearce A. F. & Feng M. The rise and fall of the “marine heat wave” off Western Australia during the summer of 2010/11. Journal of Marine Systems 111–112, 139– 156 (2013).
- Abdo D. A., Bellchambers L. M. & Evans S. N. Turning up the Heat: Increasing Temperature and Coral Bleaching at the High Latitude Coral Reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands. PLoS ONE 7(8), e43878 (2012). 22952797 PMC3430629
- Depczynski M. et al. Bleaching, coral mortality and subsequent survivorship on a West Australian fringing reef. Deep-sea Res. Part II, in press (2012).
- Clarke A. J. & Li J. El Niño/La Niña shelf edge flow and Australian western rock lobsters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L11301 (2004).
- Feng M., Meyers G., Pearce A. & Wijffels S. Annual and Interannual Variations of the Leeuwin Current at 32°S. J. Geophys. Res. 108(11), 3355 (2003).
- Feng M., Biastoch A., Boning C., Caputi N. & Meyers G. Seasonal and interannual variations of upper ocean heat balance off the west coast of Australia. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C12025 (2008).
- Kim W. et al. The unique 2009–2010 El Niño event: A fast phase transition of warm pool El Niño to La Niña.. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L15809 (2011).
- Feng M., McPhaden M. J. & Lee T. Decadal variability of the Pacific subtropical cells and their influence on the southeast Indian Ocean. Geophys. Res. Lett. 37, L09606 (2010).
- Cai W. & van Rensch P. The 2011 southeast Queensland extreme summer rainfall: A confirmation of a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L08702 (2012).
- Shinoda T., Hurlburt H. E. & Metzger E. J. Anomalous tropical ocean circulation associated with La Niña Modoki. J. Geophys. Res. 116, C12001 (2011).
- Weisberg S. Applied linear regression, 2nd ed., John Wiley, New York, 324pp (1985).
- Wilks D. S. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Academic Press, 467pp (1995).
- Yang J. et al. Impact of the Indian Ocean SST basin mode on the Asian summer monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L02708 (2007).
- Feng M. et al. The reversal of the multi-decadal trends of the equatorial Pacific easterly winds, and the Indonesian Throughflow and Leeuwin Current transports. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L11604 (2011).
- Merrifield M. A. & Maltrud M. E. Regional sea level trends due to a Pacific trade wind intensification. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L21605 (2011).
- Meehl, Gerald A. et al. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change 1(7), 360 (2011).
- Easterling D. R. & Wehner M. F. Is the climate warming or cooling? Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08706 (2009).
- Vecchi G. A. et al. Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing. Nature 441, 73– 76 (2006). 16672967
- Lima F. P. & Wethey D. S. Three decades of high-resolution coastal sea surface temperatures reveal more than warming. Nature Commun. 3 (2012). 22426225
- Yamagata T. et al. Coupled ocean–atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean. Earth's Climate: The Ocean–Atmosphere Interaction Geophys. Monogr. Vol. 147, Amer. Geophys. Union., 189– 211 (2004).
- Gentemann C. et al. Diurnal signals in satellite sea surface temperature measurements. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(3), 1140– 1143 (2003).
- The GFDL Global Atmospheric Model Development Team. The new GFDL global atmosphere and land model AM2-LM2: Evaluation with prescribed SST simulations. J. Climate 17(24), 4641– 4673 (2004).
Cited by
Sorted by citations
A hierarchical approach to defining marine heatwaves
Hobday, A. J., Alexander, L. V., Perkins, S. E., Smale, D. A., Straub, S. C., Oliver, E. C. J., Benthuysen, J. A., Burrows, M. T., Donat, M. G., Feng, M., et al. (2016) · Progress in Oceanography · doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2015.12.014 · Cited by 2,377 · see citing works
- Authors
- Feng, M., McPhaden, M. J., Xie, S.-P., & Hafner, J.
- Affiliations
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (AU)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)
- University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa (US)
- Corresponding author
- Feng, Ming
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2013-02-14
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 1277-1277
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC3572450
- OpenAlex
- W2083522655
- Cited by
- 449
- References
- 1
- Citations by year
- 2026: 26 · 2025: 39 · 2024: 36 · 2023: 32 · 2022: 45 · 2021: 54 · 2020: 48 · 2019: 36 · 2018: 37 · 2017: 25 · 2016: 24 · 2015: 19 · 2014: 20 · 2013: 7
- FWCI
- 17.80
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
- Fisheries Research and Development Corporation
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- Climate Program Office
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Marine and coastal ecosystems
- Keywords
- Leeuwin Current, sea surface temperature anomalies, coral bleaching, fish kills, teleconnections, poleward flow, Ningaloo, Western Australia coast
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review