A deforestation-induced tipping point for the South American monsoon system
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The Amazon rainforest has been proposed as a tipping element of the earth system, with the possibility of a dieback of the entire ecosystem due to deforestation only of parts of the rainforest. Possible physical mechanisms behind such a transition are still subject to ongoing debates. Here, we use a specifically designed model to analyse the nonlinear couplings between the Amazon rainforest and the atmospheric moisture transport from the Atlantic to the South American continent. These couplings are associated with a westward cascade of precipitation and evapotranspiration across the Amazon. We investigate impacts of deforestation on the South American monsoonal circulation with particular focus on a previously neglected positive feedback related to condensational latent heating over the rainforest, which strongly enhances atmospheric moisture inflow from the Atlantic. Our results indicate the existence of a tipping point. In our model setup, crossing the tipping point causes precipitation reductions of up to 40% in non-deforested parts of the western Amazon and regions further downstream. The responsible mechanism is the breakdown of the aforementioned feedback, which occurs when deforestation reduces transpiration to a point where the available atmospheric moisture does not suffice anymore to release the latent heat needed to maintain the feedback.
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In the Amazon, atmospheric moisture flow westward is an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience, partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration.
“In the Amazon, an important source of connectivity enhancing forest resilience is atmospheric moisture flow westward (Fig. 2), partly maintained by forest evapotranspiration4,37,67.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [67]
Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline by 40%, potentially causing more forest loss.
“Another study using a climate-vegetation model found that with accumulated deforestation of 30−50%, rainfall in non-deforested areas downwind would decline67 by 40% (ref. 67), potentially causing more forest loss4,37.”
From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [67]
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- Authors
- Boers, N., Marwan, N., Barbosa, H. M. J., & Kurths, J.
- Affiliations
- École Normale Supérieure - PSL (FR)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Universidade de São Paulo (BR)
- University of Aberdeen (GB)
- Corresponding author
- Boers, Niklas
- Venue
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2017-01-25
- Volume
- 7
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 41489-41489
- ISSN
- 2045-2322 (ISSN-L)
- PMC
- PMC5264177
- OpenAlex
- W2579987443
- Cited by
- 206
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 23 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 32 · 2023: 27 · 2022: 17 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 27 · 2019: 9 · 2018: 14 · 2017: 10
- FWCI
- 10.85
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- gold
- doi.org
- Locations
- Scientific Reports (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Maryland Shared Open Access Repository (USMAI Consortium) (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- HAL (submittedVersion, cc-by)
- RENATE (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Publication Database PIK (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)) (submittedVersion, other-oa)
- Digital Repository at the University of Maryland (University of Maryland College Park) (cc-by)
- RENATE (cc-by)
- Funders
- Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
- Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (IRTG 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, 1740/TRP 2011/50151-0, IRTG1740, TRP 2011/50151-0, Project 13)
- Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (13/50510-5, 11/50151-0, 2011/)
- Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (IRTG 1740, 2012-4)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
- Keywords
- Amazon rainforest, deforestation, tipping points, South American monsoon, moisture transport, latent heat release, transpiration, precipitation reduction, nonlinear feedback, Western Amazon
- MeSH terms
- Computer Simulation, Conservation of Natural Resources, Models, Theoretical, Rain, Seasons, South America, Tropical Climate
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