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Apex marine predator declines ninety percent in association with changing oceanic climate
Abstract
Three time series of pelagic bird abundance collected in disparate portions of the California Current reveal a 90% decline in Sooty Shearwater (Puffinus griseus) abundance between 1987 and 1994. This decline is negatively correlated with a concurrent rise in sea‐surface temperatures; Sooty Shearwaters have declined while sea temperatures have risen. There is a nine‐month lag in the response by shearwaters to changing temperatures. The geographical scale of our study demonstrates that the decline of Sooty Shearwaters is not a localized phenomenon, nor can it be ascribed to a short‐term distributional shift. The Sooty Shearwater is the numerically dominant species of the California Current System (CCS) in summer (austral winter), with an estimated population in the late 1970s of 5 million individuals. If the observed warming of the waters of the California Current System is an irreversible manifestation of a changing global climate, then the impact upon Sooty Shearwater populations seems likely to be profound.
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“More recently, ocean warming associated with climate change has precipitated bottom-up trophic cascades, analogous to those proposed here for terrestrial systems, which have restructured both benthic and pelagic food webs and driven declines in shearwaters and auklets (112–114).”
From Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web (2018) · cites this paper as [112]
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“…not only important top predators in terms of population numbers and biomass consumed (Schneider and Shuntov 1993), but are also sensitive indicators of oceanographic and food web change over large areas of the globe (Oka et al. 1987, Veit et al. 1997, Baduini et al. 2001, Stockwell et al. 2001).”
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“…regions, seabird population fluctuations and declines have been frequently associated with longterm and seasonal-scale effects of climate variation (Veit et al. 1997, Lyver et al. 1999, Dunlop et al. 2002), with individual species responding differently to temperature anomalies depending upon…”
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“…direct hunting (Myers & Worm 2003), bycatch in fisheries (Žydelis et al. 2009), competition with humans for resources (Cury et al. 2000, Smith et al. 2011), pollution (Maxwell et al. 2013), plastics (Choy & Drazen 2013), and consequences of climate change (Veit et al. 1997, Hazen et al. 2013).”
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“Studies of seabird communities were initiated in 1987 and now provide a 25-year time series for these taxa (Hyrenbach and Veit, 2003; Veit et al., 1996, 1997).”
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“If there is an alteration of the structure and abundance of prey communities (Hayward 1997; McGowan et al. 1998; Edwards and Richardson 2004; Winder and Schindler 2004), it would potentially affect the dynamics of predator populations (Veit et al. 1997).”
BackgroundWaugh, S. M., Barbraud, C., Adams, L., Freeman, A. N. D., Wilson, K., Wood, G., Landers, T. J., & Baker, G. B. (2015) · Ornithological Applications · doi:10.1650/condor-14-141.1 · Cited by 30
The Transboundary Nature of Seabird Ecology
Jodice, P., & Suryan, R. (2010) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-90-481-9575-6_8 · Cited by 27
“…System off Western North America, longterm ocean warming has affected the community composition and abundance of seabirds in offshore waters (Veit et al. 1996, 1997), with an overall decline in numbers resulting from fewer cold-water associated pursuit-diving seabirds despite the increase…”
BackgroundParrish, J. K., & Zador, S. G. (2003) · Estuaries · doi:10.1007/bf02803362 · Cited by 28
Critically endangered bird populations and their management
Bell, B. D., & Merton, D. V. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511606304.007 · Cited by 28
Climate change, phenology and the nature of consumer–resource interactions
Kerby, J. T., Wilmers, C. C., & Post, E. (2012) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511736551.032 · Cited by 28
Moller, H., Fletcher, D., Johnson, P. N., Bell, B. D., Flack, D., Bragg, C., Scott, D., Newman, J., McKechnie, S., & Lyver, P. O. (2009) · New Zealand Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1080/03014220909510158 · Cited by 27
“Despite the many assumptions and methodological challenges in comparing the historical and recent data, the overall pattern of decline in burrow density they show is consistent with all the other evidence that has been reported from beach patrol counts, atsea counts, burrow-occupancy changes, and harvest rates (Veit e…”
ResultEngland biodiversity strategy- towards adaptation to climate change
Mitchell, R. J., Morecroft, M. D., Mountford, O., Acreman, M., Ross, L. C., Maclean, I. M. D., Crick, H. Q. P., Rehfisch, M. M., Piper, J. M., & Wilson, E. O. (2006) · Cited by 27
Mapping and monitoring bird populations: their conservation uses
Underhill, L. G., & GIBBONS, D. W. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511606304.004 · Cited by 27
Spear, L. B., & Ainley, D. G. (2008) · Marine ornithology · doi:10.5038/2074-1235.36.2.781 · Cited by 27
“…of the upper trophic levels of the world’s oceans, including the PCS and other eastern boundary currents, and those changes have nothing to do with climate change, although effects from climate change could have had their own impacts (e.g. McGowan et al. 1996, 1998; Veit et al. 1996, 1997).”
BackgroundSelf-citationJones, C., Bettany, S., Moller, H., Fletcher, D., & de Cruz, J. (2003) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr01050 · Cited by 26
“Possible mechanisms for this global decline are climate change, exerting its effects through oceanic food chains (Veit et al. 1996, 1997; Guinet et al. 1998) and high adult mortality rates resulting from fisheries bycatch (Ogi et al. 1991; De Grange et al. 1993; Scofield and Hunter, unpublished).”
BackgroundJones, C. (2002) · Biological Conservation · doi:10.1016/s0006-3207(02)00083-6 · Cited by 25
Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone
Mieszkowska, N., & Sugden, H. E. (2016) · Advances in ecological research/Advances in Ecological Research · doi:10.1016/bs.aecr.2016.08.007 · Cited by 26
“Temporal changes in species abundances within populations have also been recorded for coastal birds (Lusk et al., 2001; Thompson and Ollason, 2001; Veit, 1997; Veit et al., 1996), mammals (Stenseth et al., 1999), zooplankton (Roemmich and MacGowan, 1995), intertidal invertebrates (Barry et al.,…”
Impacts of marine heatwaves may be mediated by seabird life history strategies
Woehler, E. J., & Hobday, A. J. (2023) · Marine Ecology Progress Series · doi:10.3354/meps14333 · Cited by 25
Matauranga Maori, science and seabirds in New Zealand
Moller, H. (2009) · New Zealand Journal of Zoology · doi:10.1080/03014220909510151 · Cited by 24
Population Ecology and Structural Dynamics of Walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma)
Bailey, K. M., Powers, D. A., Quattro, J. M., Villa, G., Nishimura, A., Traynor, J. J., & Walters, G. (1999) · Cited by 24
Paz, J. A., Pon, J. P. S., Favero, M., Blanco, G., & Copello, S. (2018) · Aquatic Conservation Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems · doi:10.1002/aqc.2907 · Cited by 25
Smith, J. R., Fong, P., & Ambrose, R. F. (2006) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-005-0223-y · Cited by 23
Clucas, R., Fletcher, D., & Moller, H. (2008) · Emu - Austral Ornithology · doi:10.1071/mu07069 · Cited by 22
“Recent shifts in the abundance of the Sooty Shearwater on the western seaboard of North America, have highlighted potential dramatic impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems (Veit et al. 1997; Wahl and Tweit 2000; Oedekoven et al. 2001; Hyrenbach and Veit 2003).”
BackgroundKitson, J. (2004) · Wildlife Research · doi:10.1071/wr02034 · Cited by 21
Priority-setting in species conservation
Mace, G. M., & Collar, N. (2002) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9780511606304.005 · Cited by 21
Fréon, P., Alheit, J., Barton, E. D., Kifani, S., & Marchesiello, P. (2006) · Large marine ecosystems · doi:10.1016/s1570-0461(06)80014-5 · Cited by 22
“…unexploited species of marine mammals and seabirds also show variability in population and reproductive success, alongshore migration, and seasonality and spatial zonation of their reproductive activity (e.g., Abraham and Sydeman 2004; Sydeman et al. 2001; Bertram et al. 2001; Veit et al. 1997).”
BackgroundSantora, J. A., Dorman, J. G., & Sydeman, W. J. (2016) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/ecog.02250 · Cited by 20
Beach patrol records indicate a substantial decline in sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus) numbers
Scofield, R. P., & Christie, D. (2002) · Notornis · doi:10.63172/175348ebucsm · Cited by 20
Spatial variation in burrow entrance density of the sooty shearwater (Puffinus griseus)
Charleton, K., Bragg, C., Knight, B., Fletcher, D., Moller, H., Newman, J., & Scott, D. (2009) · Notornis · doi:10.63172/169889znlgcu · Cited by 18
“In recent decades there has been a large-scale decline in the number of sooty shearwaters counted at sea in the North Pacific (Veit et al. 1996, 1997).”
BackgroundBovy, K. M. (2006) · Journal of Archaeological Science · doi:10.1016/j.jas.2006.10.001 · Cited by 18
Fortune telling seabirds: sooty shearwaters (Puffinus griseus) predict shifts in Pacific climate
Humphries, G. R. W., & Möller, H. (2017) · Marine Biology · doi:10.1007/s00227-017-3182-1 · Cited by 18
Metadata
- Authors
- VEIT, R., MCGOWAN, J., AINLEY, D., WAHL, T., & PYLE, P.
- Affiliations
- University of Washington (US)
- Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US)
- H.T. Harvey & Associates (US)
- Point Blue Conservation Science (US)
- Corresponding author
- VEIT, RICHARD
- Venue
- Global Change Biology
- Publisher
- Wiley
- Published
- 1997-02
- Volume
- 3
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 23-28
- ISSN
- 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
- 1365-2486
- OpenAlex
- W2123890019
- Cited by
- 174
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2025: 3 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 6 · 2022: 1 · 2021: 1 · 2020: 5 · 2019: 3 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 2 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 8 · 2013: 4 · 2012: 8
- FWCI
- 7.54
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
- Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR) (acceptedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Marine animal studies overview
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Avian ecology and behavior
- Life Sciences › Agricultural and Biological Sciences › Aquatic Science › Marine and fisheries research
- Keywords
- sooty shearwater, Puffinus griseus, population decline (ecology), sea surface temperature, ocean warming, California Current System, pelagic seabirds, climate change, population time series
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