Risk Implications of the New CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) Equation Compared With the MDRD Study Equation for Estimated GFR: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Abstract

Background The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) recently published an equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the same variables (serum creatinine, age, gender and race) as the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study (MDRD) equation. Although the CKD-EPI equation estimates GFR more precisely as compared with the MDRD equation, whether this equation improves risk prediction is unknown. Study Design Prospective cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study. Setting & Participants 13,905 middle-aged participants without a history of cardiovascular disease with median follow-up of 16.9 years. Predictor eGFR Outcomes & Measurements We compared the association of eGFR in categories (≥120, 90–119, 60–89, 30–59, <30 ml/min/1.73m2) by the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations with risk of incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD), all-cause mortality, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke. Results Median of eGFRCKD-EPI was higher than that of eGFRMDRD (97.6 vs. 88.8 ml/min/1.73m2, P<0.001). The CKD-EPI equation reclassified 44.9% (n=3,079) and 43.5% (n=151) of participants with eGFRMDRD 60–89 and 30–59, respectively, upward to a higher eGFR category but no one with eGFRMDRD 90–119 or <30, lowering the prevalence of CKD stage 3–5 from 2.7% to 1.6%. Participants with eGFRMDRD 30–59 who were reclassified upward had lower risk as compared to those who were not reclassified (ESRD incidence rate ratio, 0.10 [95% CI, 0.03–0.33], all-cause mortality, 0.30 [0.19–0.48], CHD, 0.36 [0.21–0.61], stroke, 0.50 [0.24–1.01]). Similar results were observed for participants with eGFRMDRD 60–89. More frequent reclassification of younger, female, and white participants explained some of these trends. Net reclassification improvement among participants with eGFR <120 was positive for all outcomes (P<0.001). Limitations Limited number of cases with eGFR <60 and no measurement of albuminuria. Conclusions The CKD-EPI equation more appropriately categorized individuals with respect to long-term clinical risk as compared to the MDRD equation, suggesting improved clinical usefulness in this middle-aged population.