Cited by 301Chronic Kidney Disease and DiabetesDialysis and Renal Disease ManagementChronic Disease Management Strategies

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The Future Burden of CKD in the United States: A Simulation Model for the CDC CKD Initiative

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Hoerger, Thomas J., Simpson, Sean A., Yarnoff, Benjamin O., Pavkov, Meda E., Ríos Burrows, Nilka, Saydah, Sharon H., Williams, Desmond E., Zhuo, Xiaohui·2015·American Journal of Kidney Diseases

DOI 10.1053/j.ajkd.2014.09.023PMC PMC11000251

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Abstract

Background Awareness of chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined by kidney damage or reduced glomerular filtration rate, remains low in the United States, and few estimates of its future burden exist.Study design We used the CKD Health Policy Model to simulate the residual lifetime incidence of CKD and project the prevalence of CKD in 2020 and 2030. The simulation sample was based on nationally representative data from the 1999 to 2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys.Setting & population Current US population.Model, perspective, & timeline Simulation model following up individuals from current age through death or age 90 years.Outcomes Residual lifetime incidence represents the projected percentage of persons who will develop new CKD during their lifetimes. Future prevalence is projected for 2020 and 2030.Measurements Development and progression of CKD are based on annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates that depend on age and risk factors.Results For US adults aged 30 to 49, 50 to 64, and 65 years or older with no CKD at baseline, the residual lifetime incidences of CKD are 54%, 52%, and 42%, respectively. The prevalence of CKD in adults 30 years or older is projected to increase from 13.2% currently to 14.4% in 2020 and 16.7% in 2030.Limitations Due to limited data, our simulation model estimates are based on assumptions about annual decrements in estimated glomerular filtration rates.Conclusions For an individual, lifetime risk of CKD is high, with more than half the US adults aged 30 to 64 years likely to develop CKD. Knowing the lifetime incidence of CKD may raise individuals' awareness and encourage them to take steps to prevent CKD. From a national burden perspective, we estimate that the population prevalence of CKD will increase in coming decades, suggesting that development of interventions to slow CKD onset and progression should be considered.

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Authors: Hoerger, T. J., Simpson, S. A., Yarnoff, B. O., Pavkov, M. E., Ríos Burrows, N., Saydah, S. H., Williams, D. E., & Zhuo, X.
Affiliations: RTI International (US)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (US)
Corresponding author: Hoerger, Thomas J.
ORCID: Hoerger, Thomas J.
Simpson, Sean A.
Yarnoff, Benjamin O.
Pavkov, Meda E.
Saydah, Sharon H.
Williams, Desmond E.
Venue: American Journal of Kidney Diseases
Publisher: Elsevier BV
Published: 2015-03
Volume: 65
Issue: 3
Pages: 403-411
ISSN: 0272-6386 (ISSN-L)
DOI: 10.1053/j.ajkd.2014.09.023
PMC: PMC11000251
OpenAlex: W2103852969
Cited by: 299
References: 35
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 22 · 2024: 20 · 2023: 22 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 29 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 19 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 26 · 2016: 34 · 2015: 23
FWCI: 21.87
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Licence: www.elsevier.com/tdm/userlicense/1.0/ (tdm)
www.elsevier.com/legal/tdmrep-license (tdm)
Locations: American Journal of Kidney Diseases (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (acceptedVersion)
Funders: National Institutes of Health (CC999999)
Topics: Health Sciences › Medicine › Nephrology › Chronic Kidney Disease and Diabetes
Health Sciences › Medicine › Nephrology › Dialysis and Renal Disease Management
Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Chronic Disease Management Strategies
Keywords: chronic kidney disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate decline, chronic kidney disease progression, CKD risk factors, CKD prevention
MeSH terms: Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, U.S., Female, Forecasting, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Theoretical, Nutrition Surveys, United States, Cohort Studies, Cost of Illness, Renal Insufficiency, Chronic

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The Future Burden of CKD in the United States: A Simulation Model for the CDC CKD Initiative

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