Worldwide Thyroid-Cancer Epidemic? The Increasing Impact of Overdiagnosis
Abstract
Dramatic increases have been seen over recent decades in the reported incidence of thyroid cancer, but owing to new modes of screening, hundreds of thousands of cases may be overdiagnoses — diagnosis of tumors that would not, if left alone, result in symptoms or death.
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The vast majority of new thyroid cancers detected have been subclinical papillary tumors that otherwise would not go on to cause symptoms or death; this has been estimated at 90% in South Korea; 70%-80% in the United States, Italy, France, and Australia; and 50% in Japan, the Nordic countries, and England and Scotland for the period 2003-2007.
“The vast majority of new cancers detected have been subclinical papillary tumors that otherwise would not go on to cause symptoms or death; this has been estimated at 90% in South Korea; 70%-80% in the United States, Italy, France, and Australia; and 50% in Japan, the Nordic countries, and England and Scotland for the period 2003-2007.148”
From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [148]
The rapid rises in thyroid cancer incidence rates in many countries in recent years are mainly attributed to the increasing use of imaging, ultrasonography, and biopsy.
“The rapid rises in incidence rates in many countries in recent years are mainly attributed to the increasing use of imaging, ultrasonography, and biopsy.147,148”
From Global cancer statistics 2022: GLOBOCAN estimates of incidence and mortality worldwide for 36 cancers in 185 countries. (2024) · cites this paper as [148]
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“147,148 In a study of 25 countries, the increases were mainly confined to papillary carcinomas commonly detected by intense scrutiny of the thyroid gland.”
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- Authors
- Vaccarella, S., Franceschi, S., Bray, F., Wild, C. P., Plummer, M., & Dal Maso, L.
- Affiliations
- Centro di Riferimento Oncologico (IT)
- Venue
- New England Journal of Medicine
- Publisher
- Massachusetts Medical Society
- Published
- 2016-08-18
- Volume
- 375
- Issue
- 7
- Pages
- 614-617
- ISSN
- 0028-4793 (ISSN-L)
- 1533-4406
- OpenAlex
- W2508926319
- Cited by
- 1,145
- References
- 5
- Citations by year
- 2026: 72 · 2025: 102 · 2024: 128 · 2023: 116 · 2022: 125 · 2021: 136 · 2020: 144 · 2019: 105 · 2018: 104 · 2017: 98 · 2016: 13 · 2015: 1 · 2013: 1
- FWCI
- 107.22
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- New England Journal of Medicine (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Warwick Research Archive Portal (University of Warwick) (submittedVersion)
- Funders
- World Health Organization
- Topics
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism › Thyroid Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Oncology › Global Cancer Incidence and Screening
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Surgery › Thyroid and Parathyroid Surgery
- Keywords
- thyroid cancer, overdiagnosis, incidence trends, thyroid cancer screening, cancer epidemiology
- MeSH terms
- Medical Overuse, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, False Positive Reactions, Female, Humans, Male, Middle Aged, Thyroid Neoplasms, Incidence, Age Distribution, Early Detection of Cancer, Young Adult, Epidemics
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