The DOI matches its Crossref record; 2 of the 2 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world
Open accessAbstract
The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.
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Donnelly, C. A., Ghani, A. C., Leung, G. M., Hedley, A. J., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Ho, L.-M., Thach, T.-Q., Chau, P., et al. (2003) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(03)13410-1 · Cited by 940
Predicting the spatial dynamics of rabies epidemics on heterogeneous landscapes
Smith, D. L., Lucey, B., Waller, L. A., Childs, J. E., & Real, L. A. (2002) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.042400799 · Cited by 378
Cited by
Epidemic processes in complex networks
Pastor-Satorras, R., Castellano, C., Van Mieghem, P., & Vespignani, A. (2015) · Reviews of Modern Physics · doi:10.1103/revmodphys.87.925 · Cited by 3,697
Limits of Predictability in Human Mobility
Song, C., Qu, Z., Blumm, N., & Barabási, A.-L. (2010) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1177170 · Cited by 3,234
The Hidden Geometry of Complex, Network-Driven Contagion Phenomena
Brockmann, D., & Helbing, D. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1245200 · Cited by 1,253
Self-citationPrediction and prevention of the next pandemic zoonosis.
Morse, S. S., Mazet, J. A., Woolhouse, M., Parrish, C. R., Carroll, D., Karesh, W. B., Zambrana-Torrelio, C., Lipkin, W. I., & Daszak, P. (2012) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(12)61684-5 · Cited by 1,070
Cross-Species Virus Transmission and the Emergence of New Epidemic Diseases
Parrish, C. R., Holmes, E. C., Morens, D. M., Park, E.-C., Burke, D. S., Calisher, C. H., Laughlin, C. A., Saif, L. J., & Daszak, P. (2008) · Microbiology and Molecular Biology Reviews · doi:10.1128/mmbr.00004-08 · Cited by 834
Metadata
- Authors
- Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D., & Geisel, T.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2004-10-11
- Volume
- 101
- Issue
- 42
- Pages
- 15124-15129
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- OpenAlex
- W2100776472
- Cited by
- 1,061
- References
- 2
- FWCI
- 16.60
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- green
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