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Successional dynamics in Neotropical forests are as uncertain as they are predictable
Abstract
Significance: Although forest succession has been approached as a predictable process, successional trajectories vary widely, even among nearby stands with similar environmental conditions and disturbance histories. We quantified predictability and uncertainty during tropical forest succession using dynamical models describing the interactions among stem density, basal area, and species density over time. We showed that the trajectories of these forest attributes were poorly predicted by stand age and varied significantly within and among sites. Our models reproduced the general successional trends observed, but high levels of noise were needed to increase model predictability. These levels of uncertainty call into question the premise that successional processes are consistent over space and time, and challenge the way ecologists view tropical forest regeneration.
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Short-term successional dynamics following forest disturbance are relatively well understood for lowland Amazonia, but such processes in neotropical montane environments remain less studied.
“Although short-term successional dynamics following forest disturbance are relatively well understood for lowland Amazonia44—for instance, the dominance of early successional species depending on disturbance scale—such processes in neotropical montane environments remain less studied6,41.”
From Ecological legacies of pre-columbian settlements evident in palm clusters of neotropical mountain forests (2026) · cites this paper as [44]
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Forest ecosystem-service transitions: the ecological dimensions of the forest transition
Wilson, S. J., Schelhas, J., Grau, R., Nanni, A. S., & Sloan, S. (2017) · Ecology and Society · doi:10.5751/es-09615-220438 · Cited by 109
“The conceptual curves presented here simplify the variability in actual reforestation outcomes, and are not intended to be rigorously quantitative (Norden et al. 2015).”
BackgroundRapid ant community reassembly in a Neotropical forest: Recovery dynamics and land‐use legacy
Hoenle, P. O., Donoso, D. A., Argoti, A., Staab, M., von Beeren, C., & Blüthgen, N. (2022) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1002/eap.2559 · Cited by 35
Fajardo, S., Mohammadi, S., Gregorio de Souza, J., Ardila, C., Tapscott, A., Heidgen, S., Mayorga Hernández, M. I., Mota de Oliveira, S., Montejo, F., Moderato, M., et al. (2026) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-026-45976-2 · Cited by 1
Metadata
- Authors
- Norden, N., Angarita, H. A., Bongers, F., Martínez-Ramos, M., Granzow-de la Cerda, I., van Breugel, M., Lebrija-Trejos, E., Meave, J. A., Vandermeer, J., Williamson, G. B., Finegan, B., Mesquita, R., & Chazdon, R. L.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2015-06-15
- Volume
- 112
- Issue
- 26
- Pages
- 8013-8018
- ISSN
- 0027-8424
- 1091-6490
- Cited by
- 293
- References
- 0
- Language
- en
- Funders
- National Science Foundation (DEB-1147434, DEB-1147429, DEB-0639393, DEB-9524061, DEB-0135350, DEB-0235761)
- Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (2002-C01-0597)
- SEP-CONACYT (CB-2005-01-51043)
- CONACYT (2004-168169)
- UNAM-PAPITT (IN216007)
- DUTCH NWO-WOTRO (W85-326)
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