Cited by 298Tree-ring climate responsesForest ecology and managementPlant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

No growth stimulation of Canada’s boreal forest under half-century of combined warming and CO 2 fertilization

Open access
Girardin, Martin P., Bouriaud, Olivier, Hogg, Edward H., Kurz, Werner, Zimmermann, Niklaus E., Metsaranta, Juha M., de Jong, Rogier, Frank, David C. +4 more·2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Abstract

Significance Limited knowledge about the mechanistic drivers of forest growth and responses to environmental changes creates uncertainties about the future role of circumpolar boreal forests in the global carbon cycle. Here, we use newly acquired tree-ring data from Canada’s National Forest Inventory to determine the growth response of the boreal forest to environmental changes. We find no consistent boreal-wide growth response over the past 60 y across Canada. However, some southwestern and southeastern forests experienced a growth enhancement, and some regions such as the northwestern and maritime areas experienced a growth depression. Growth–climate relationships bring evidence of an intensification of the impacts of hydroclimatic variability on growth late in the 20th century, in parallel with the rapid rise of summer temperature.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1073/pnas.1610156113

Cites

2 of 2 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

A few free checks a day · papers already verified open instantly · results are public

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

  • The poor understanding of industrial pollution effects is particularly true for the boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere.

    “This is particularly true for the boreal forests of the Northern Hemisphere (Gauthier et al ., 2015; Girardin et al ., 2016)”

    From Ecological and conceptual consequences of Arctic pollution (2020) · cites this paper as Girardin et al ., 2016

    The Abstract says that understanding boreal forests’ responses to environmental changes remains a scientific challenge. That supports the general point about uncertainty, but the paper does not address whether the effects of industrial pollution on boreal forests are poorly understood. (LLM, conf=0.79)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

Cites

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 61

  1. [1]Pan Y, Birdsey RA, Phillips OL, Jackson RB. The structure, distribution, and biomass of the world’s forests. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst. 2013;44:593–622. [Google Scholar]
  2. [2]Hickling R, Roy D, Hill J, Fox R, Thomas C. The distributions of a wide range of taxonomic groups are expanding polewards. Glob Change Biol. 2006;12:450–455. [Google Scholar]
  3. [3]Kurz WA, et al. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature. 2008;452(7190):987–990. doi: 10.1038/nature06777. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  4. [4]Serreze MC, et al. Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Clim Change. 2000;46:159–207. [Google Scholar]
  5. [5]Esper J, Schweingruber F. Large-scale treeline changes recorded in Siberia. Geophys Res Lett. 2004;31:L06202. [Google Scholar]
  6. [6]Soja AJ, et al. Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations. Global Planet Change. 2007;56:274–296. [Google Scholar]
  7. [7]Wang X, et al. Spring temperature change and its implication in the change of vegetation growth in North America from 1982 to 2006. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2011;108(4):1240–1245. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1014425108. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  8. [8]Zhang K, et al. Satellite-based model detection of recent climate-driven changes in northern high-latitude vegetation productivity. J Geophys Res. 2008;113:G03033. [Google Scholar]
  9. [9]Price DT, et al. Anticipating the consequences of climate change for Canada’s boreal forest ecosystems. Environ Rev. 2013;21:322–365. [Google Scholar]
  10. [10]IPCC . Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change (AR5) IPCC; Geneva: 2014. [Google Scholar]
  11. [11]Kurz W, et al. Carbon in Canada’s boreal forest—a synthesis. Environ Rev. 2013;21:260–292. [Google Scholar]
  12. [12]Boisvenue C, Running SW. Impacts of climate change on natural forest productivity—evidence since the middle of the 20th century. Glob Change Biol. 2006;12:1–21. [Google Scholar]
  13. [13]Hember RA, et al. Accelerating regrowth of temperate maritime forests due to environmental change. Glob Change Biol. 2012;18:2026–2040. [Google Scholar]
  14. [14]Girardin MP, et al. Testing for a CO2 fertilization effect on growth of Canadian boreal forests. J Geophys Res. 2011;116:G01012. [Google Scholar]
  15. [15]Ma Z, et al. Regional drought-induced reduction in the biomass carbon sink of Canada’s boreal forests. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2012;109(7):2423–2427. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1111576109. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  16. [16]Girardin MP, et al. Unusual forest growth decline in boreal North America covaries with the retreat of Arctic sea ice. Glob Change Biol. 2014;20(3):851–866. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12400. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  17. [17]Chen HYH, Luo Y. Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada’s boreal forests. Glob Change Biol. 2015;21(10):3675–3684. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12994. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  18. [18]Hayes D, et al. Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening? Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2011;25:GB3018. [Google Scholar]
  19. [20]McGuire AD, et al. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the arctic to climate change. Ecol Monogr. 2009;79:523–555. [Google Scholar]
  20. [21]Guay KC, et al. Vegetation productivity patterns at high northern latitudes: A multi-sensor satellite data assessment. Glob Change Biol. 2014;20(10):3147–3158. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12647. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  21. [22]Piao S, et al. Evidence for a weakening relationship between interannual temperature variability and northern vegetation activity. Nat Commun. 2014;5:5018. doi: 10.1038/ncomms6018. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  22. [23]Beck PSA, et al. Changes in forest productivity across Alaska consistent with biome shift. Ecol Lett. 2011;14(4):373–379. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2011.01598.x. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  23. [24]Gillis MD, Omule AY, Brierley T. Monitoring Canada’s forests: The National Forest Inventory. For Chron. 2005;81:214–221. [Google Scholar]
  24. [25]Gedalof Z, Berg AA. Tree ring evidence for limited direct CO2 fertilization of forests over the 20th century. Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2010;24:GB3027. [Google Scholar]
  25. [27]McDowell NG, et al. The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality. Trends Ecol Evol. 2011;26(10):523–532. doi: 10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.003. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  26. [28]Breshears DD, et al. Tree die-off in response to global change-type drought: Mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements. Front Ecol Environ. 2009;7:185–189. [Google Scholar]
  27. [29]Sevanto S, McDowell NG, Dickman LT, Pangle R, Pockman WT. How do trees die? A test of the hydraulic failure and carbon starvation hypotheses. Plant Cell Environ. 2014;37(1):153–161. doi: 10.1111/pce.12141. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  28. [30]Skelton RP, West AG, Dawson TE. Predicting plant vulnerability to drought in biodiverse regions using functional traits. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2015;112(18):5744–5749. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1503376112. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  29. [31]Clark JS, et al. The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States. Glob Change Biol. 2016;22(7):2329–2352. doi: 10.1111/gcb.13160. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI · Paper page
  30. [32]Hogg EH, Bernier PY. Climate change impacts on drought-prone forests in western Canada. For Chron. 2005;81(5):675–682. [Google Scholar]
  31. [33]Reich PB, et al. Boreal and temperate trees show strong acclimation of respiration to warming. Nature. 2016;531(7596):633–636. doi: 10.1038/nature17142. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  32. [34]Norby RJ, et al. Forest response to elevated CO2 is conserved across a broad range of productivity. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2005;102(50):18052–18056. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0509478102. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  33. [35]Norby RJ, Warren JM, Iversen CM, Medlyn BE, McMurtrie RE. CO2 enhancement of forest productivity constrained by limited nitrogen availability. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2010;107(45):19368–19373. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1006463107. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  34. [36]Bader MFK, et al. Central European hardwood trees in a high‐CO2 future: Synthesis of an 8‐year forest canopy CO2 enrichment project. J Ecol. 2013;101:1509–1519. [Google Scholar]
  35. [37]Keenan TF, et al. Increase in forest water-use efficiency as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise. Nature. 2013;499(7458):324–327. doi: 10.1038/nature12291. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  36. [38]Frank DC, et al. Water use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene. Nat Clim Chang. 2015;5:579–583. [Google Scholar]
  37. [39]Peters RL, Groenendijk P, Vlam M, Zuidema PA. Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: A critical evaluation of methods. Glob Change Biol. 2015;21(5):2040–2054. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12826. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  38. [40]Brienen RJW, Gloor E, Zuidema PA. Detecting evidence for CO2 fertilization from tree ring studies: The potential role of sampling biases. Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2012;26:GB1025. [Google Scholar]
  39. [41]Nehrbass-Ahles C, et al. The influence of sampling design on tree-ring-based quantification of forest growth. Glob Change Biol. 2014;20(9):2867–2885. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12599. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  40. [42]Bond-Lamberty B, Peckham SD, Ahl DE, Gower ST. Fire as the dominant driver of central Canadian boreal forest carbon balance. Nature. 2007;450(7166):89–92. doi: 10.1038/nature06272. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  41. [43]Kurz WA, Stinson G, Rampley G. Could increased boreal forest ecosystem productivity offset carbon losses from increased disturbances? Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2008;363(1501):2261–2269. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.2198. [DOI] [PMC free article] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  42. [44]Hogg EH, Brandt JP, Kochtubajda B. Factors affecting interannual variation in growth of western Canadian aspen forests during 1951–2000. Can J Res. 2005;35:610–622. [Google Scholar]
  43. [45]Pureswaran DS, et al. Climate-induced changes in host tree–insect phenology may drive ecological state-shift in boreal forests. Ecology. 2015;96:1480–1491. [Google Scholar]
  44. [46]Babst F, Bouriaud O, Alexander R, Trouet V, Frank D. Toward consistent measurements of carbon accumulation: A multi-site assessment of biomass and basal area increment across Europe. Dendrochronologia. 2014;32:153–161. [Google Scholar]
  45. [47]Pinzon J, Tucker C. A non-stationary 1981–2012 AVHRR NDVI3g time series. Remote Sens. 2014;6:6929–6960. [Google Scholar]
  46. [48]Beaudoin A, et al. Mapping attributes of Canada’s forests at moderate resolution through kNN imputation and MODIS imagery. Can J Res. 2014;44:521–532. [Google Scholar]
  47. [50]Régnière J, Bolstad P. Statistical simulation of daily air temperature patterns in eastern North America to forecast seasonal events in insect pest management. Environ Entomol. 1994;23:1368–1380. [Google Scholar]
  48. [51]Hogg EH, Barr AG, Black TA. A simple soil moisture index for representing multi-year drought impacts on aspen productivity in the western Canadian interior. Agr For Met. 2013;178-179:173–182. [Google Scholar]
  49. [52]Keeling CD, Bacastow RB, Whorf TP. Measurements of the concentration of carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii. In: Clarke WC, editor. Carbon Dioxide Review: 1982. Oxford Univ Press; New York: 1982. pp. 377–385. [Google Scholar]
  50. [53]Etheridge DM, et al. Natural and anthropogenic changes in atmospheric CO2 over the last 1000 years from air in Antarctic ice and fir. J Geophys Res. 1996;101:4115–4128. [Google Scholar]
  51. [54]Wood SN. Thin plate regression splines. J R Stat Soc B. 2003;65:95–114. [Google Scholar]
  52. [55]Camarero JJ, Gazol A, Galván JD, Sangüesa-Barreda G, Gutiérrez E. Disparate effects of global-change drivers on mountain conifer forests: Warming-induced growth enhancement in young trees vs. CO2 fertilization in old trees from wet sites. Glob Change Biol. 2015;21(2):738–749. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12787. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI
  53. [56]Esper J, Cook E, Krusic P, Peters K, Schweingruber F. Tests of the RCS method for preserving low-frequency variability in long tree-ring chronologies. Tree-Ring Res. 2003;59:81–98. [Google Scholar]
  54. [57]Wood SN. Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R. Chapman Hall/CRC Press; Boca Raton, FL: 2006. [Google Scholar]
  55. [58]R Development Core Team . R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing; Vienna: 2013. [Google Scholar]
  56. [59]Baskerville GL. Use of logarithmic regression in the estimation of plant biomass. Can J Res. 1972;2:49–53. [Google Scholar]
  57. [60]Ecological Stratification Working Group . A National Ecological Framework for Canada. Report and National Map at 1:7,500,000 Scale. Ecological Stratification Working Group, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and Environment Canada; Ottawa: 1995. [Google Scholar]
  58. [61]Legendre P, Legendre L. Numerical Ecology. Vol 20 Elsevier; Amsterdam: 2012. [Google Scholar]
  59. [63]Symonds MRE, Moussalli A. A brief guide to model selection, multimodel inference and model averaging in behavioural ecology using Akaike’s information criterion. Behav Ecol Sociobiol. 2011;65:13–21. [Google Scholar]
  60. [64]Dutilleul P. Modifying the t test for assessing the correlation between two spatial processes. Biometrics. 1993;49:305–314. [Google Scholar]
  61. [65]Friedman JH. Multivariate adaptive regression splines. Ann Stat. 1991;19:1–67. doi: 10.1177/096228029500400303. [DOI] [PubMed] [Google Scholar] · DOI

Cited by

Sorted by citations

Authors
Girardin, M. P., Bouriaud, O., Hogg, E. H., Kurz, W., Zimmermann, N. E., Metsaranta, J. M., de Jong, R., Frank, D. C., Esper, J., Büntgen, U., Guo, X. J., & Bhatti, J.
Affiliations
  • Canadian Forest Service (CA)
  • Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
  • Remote Sensing Laboratories, University of Zurich, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland;
  • University of Arizona (US)
  • Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (DE)
  • Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (CH)
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2016-12-12
Volume
113
Issue
52
Pages
E8406-E8414
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
OpenAlex
W2566201594
Cited by
298
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 18 · 2025: 18 · 2024: 30 · 2023: 43 · 2022: 30 · 2021: 39 · 2020: 37 · 2019: 27 · 2018: 34 · 2017: 22
FWCI
16.88
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion)
  • Zurich Open Repository and Archive (University of Zurich) (submittedVersion)
Funders
Gouvernement du Canada | Natural Resources Canada (Forest Change, National Forest Inventory)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Tree-ring climate responses
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Nature and Landscape Conservation › Forest ecology and management
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Keywords
boreal forest, tree growth, global warming, CO2 fertilization, tree-ring measurements, national forest inventory, climate-growth relationships, hydroclimatic variability, summer temperature, carbon cycle, forest carbon sink
MeSH terms
Canada, Carbon Dioxide, Ecology, Geography, Regression Analysis, Temperature, Time Factors, Trees, Models, Statistical, Biomass, Climate Change, Carbon Cycle, Forests, Taiga

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review