The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Clark, James S.; Iverson, Louis; Woodall, Christopher W.; Allen, Craig D.; Bell, David M.; Bragg, Don C.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Davis, Frank W.; Hersh, Michelle H.; Ibanez, Ines; Jackson, Stephen T.; Matthews, Stephen; Pederson, Neil; Peters, Matthew; Schwartz, Mark W.; Waring, Kristen M.; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.

doi:10.1111/gcb.13160

Cited by 606Plant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsFire effects on ecosystemsForest Insect Ecology and Management

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Open access

Clark, James S., Iverson, Louis, Woodall, Christopher W., Allen, Craig D., Bell, David M., Bragg, Don C., D'Amato, Anthony W., Davis, Frank W. +9 more·2016·Global Change Biology

DOI 10.1111/gcb.13160

Open this paper in CoChat — free account Open PDF

Abstract

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand‐to‐biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand‐level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate‐induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought‐tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Integrity signals

Registry

Crossref · 10.1111/gcb.13160

Cites

292 of 292 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

Statistics

Claims the paper makes

The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.

Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.

Claims other papers make about this one

Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?

The coupling of climatic warming and more extensive droughts may shift the conifer zone up in elevation, with severe fire and bark-beetle-caused tree mortality being a major driver of this shift.
“In many areas, the coupling of climatic warming and more extensive droughts may shift the conifer zone up in elevation, with severe fire and bark-beetle-caused tree mortality being a major driver of this shift (Fellows andGouldin 2012, Clark et al. 2016).”
From Drought, Tree Mortality, and Wildfire in Forests Adapted to Frequent Fire (2018) · cites this paper as Clark et al. 2016
Box 2 (page unavailable) reports an upslope retreat of ponderosa pine associated with drought-induced mortality and describes widespread bark-beetle mortality during drought. The section on drought-related biogeographic and biome shifts (page unavailable) says fire and insect-related dieback can accelerate changes in species distributions. It does not establish that severe fire and bark-beetle mortality are a major driver of an upward shift of the conifer zone generally. (LLM, conf=0.84)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

Self-check

Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.

The self-check needs the paper’s full text.

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
Parmesan, C., & Yohe, G. (2003) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature01286 · Cited by 11,265 · see citing works
A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Chenchouni, H., Bachelet, D., McDowell, N., Vennetier, M., Kitzberger, T., Rigling, A., Breshears, D. D., Hogg, E. H. (., et al. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.09.001 · Cited by 7,763 · see citing works
Self-citation
Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models.
Guisan, A., & Thuiller, W. (2005) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x · Cited by 6,844 · see citing works
Rapid Range Shifts of Species Associated with High Levels of Climate Warming
Chen, I., Hill, J. K., Ohlemüller, R., Roy, D. B., & Thomas, C. D. (2011) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1206432 · Cited by 5,510 · see citing works
THE INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
Shine, K. P. (1990) · Weather · doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1990.tb05660.x · Cited by 5,458 · see citing works
Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity.
Westerling, A. L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., & Swetnam, T. W. (2006) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1128834 · Cited by 5,176 · cited 18× · see citing works
“Limited evidence of migration over the last century, a time when the velocity of climate change has been substantial in the northern USA (Zhu et al. , 2012), is not in agreement with models that suggest that suitable habitats of many species are shifting faster than are the populations themselves (McKenney et al. , 20…”
BackgroundInfluential
Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models
Dai, A. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1633 · Cited by 4,762 · see citing works
THE MAINTENANCE OF SPECIES‐RICHNESS IN PLANT COMMUNITIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE REGENERATION NICHE
Grubb, P. J. (1977) · Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · doi:10.1111/j.1469-185x.1977.tb01347.x · Cited by 4,407 · see citing works
Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
(IPCC), I. P. O. C. C. (2014) · Cambridge University Press eBooks · doi:10.1017/cbo9781107415386 · Cited by 4,088 · see citing works
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model
Sitch, S., Smith, B., Prentice, I. C., Arneth, A., Bondeau, A., Crämer, W., Kaplan, J. O., Levis, S., Lucht, W., Sykes, M. T., et al. (2003) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2486.2003.00569.x · Cited by 3,239 · see citing works
Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe.
Thuiller, W., Lavorel, S., Araújo, M., Sykes, M., & Prentice, I. C. (2005) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.0409902102 · Cited by 2,659 · see citing works
On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene
Allen, C. D., Breshears, D. D., & McDowell, N. G. (2015) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es15-00203.1 · Cited by 2,654 · see citing works
Self-citation
The velocity of climate change
Loarie, S. R., Duffy, P. B., Hamilton, H., Asner, G. P., Field, C. B., & Ackerly, D. D. (2009) · Nature · doi:10.1038/nature08649 · Cited by 2,544 · see citing works
Range Shifts and Adaptive Responses to Quaternary Climate Change
Davis, M. B., & Shaw, R. G. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.292.5517.673 · Cited by 2,543 · see citing works
Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment
(2014) · doi:10.7930/j0z31wj2 · Cited by 2,414 · see citing works
A Significant Upward Shift in Plant Species Optimum Elevation During the 20th Century
Lenoir, J., Gégout, J., Marquet, P. A., de Ruffray, P., & Brisse, H. (2008) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1156831 · Cited by 2,313 · see citing works
Regional vegetation die-off in response to global-change-type drought.
Breshears, D., Cobb, N., Rich, P., Price, K., Allen, C., Balice, R., Romme, W. H., Kastens, J., Floyd, M., Belnap, J., et al. (2005) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · doi:10.1073/pnas.0505734102 · Cited by 2,278 · see citing works
Self-citation
Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations
Aitken, S. N., Yeaman, S., Holliday, J. A., Wang, T., & McLane, S. C. (2008) · Evolutionary Applications · doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.x · Cited by 2,209 · see citing works
Temperature as a potent driver of regional forest drought stress and tree mortality
Park Williams, A., Allen, C. D., Macalady, A. K., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Swetnam, T. W., Rauscher, S. A., Seager, R., Grissino-Mayer, H. D., et al. (2013) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1693 · Cited by 1,991 · see citing works
Self-citation
Temperate forest trees and stands under severe drought: a review of ecophysiological responses, adaptation processes and long-term consequences
Bréda, N., Huc, R., Granier, A., & Dreyer, E. (2006) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1051/forest:2006042 · Cited by 1,846 · see citing works
Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States
van Mantgem, P. J., Stephenson, N. L., Byrne, J. C., Daniels, L. D., Franklin, J. F., Fulé, P. Z., Harmon, M. E., Larson, A. J., Smith, J. M., Taylor, A. H., et al. (2009) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1165000 · Cited by 1,799 · see citing works
Cross-scale Drivers of Natural Disturbances Prone to Anthropogenic Amplification: The Dynamics of Bark Beetle Eruptions
Raffa, K. F., Aukema, B. H., Bentz, B., Carroll, A. L., Hicke, J. A., Turner, M. G., & Romme, W. H. (2008) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/b580607 · Cited by 1,783 · see citing works
An atlas of past and present pollen maps for Europe, 0-13,000 years ago
Huntley, B. J., & Birks, H. J. B. (1983) · Cited by 1,553 · see citing works
Consequences of widespread tree mortality triggered by drought and temperature stress
Anderegg, W. R. L., Kane, J. M., & Anderegg, L. D. L. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1635 · Cited by 1,485 · see citing works
The Demise of Fire and “Mesophication” of Forests in the Eastern United States
Nowacki, G. J., & Abrams, M. D. (2008) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/b580207 · Cited by 1,316 · see citing works
Climate Change and Bark Beetles of the Western United States and Canada: Direct and Indirect Effects
Bentz, B., Régnière, J., Fettig, C. J., Hansen, E. M., Hayes, J. L., Hicke, J. A., Kelsey, R. G., Negrón, J. F., & Seybold, S. J. (2010) · BioScience · doi:10.1525/bio.2010.60.8.6 · Cited by 1,294 · see citing works
Rapid shifts in plant distribution with recent climate change
Kelly, A. E., & Goulden, M. L. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0802891105 · Cited by 1,287 · see citing works
Continent-wide response of mountain vegetation to climate change
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Futschik, A., Akhalkatsi, M., Barančok, P., Alonso, J. L. B., Coldea, G., Dick, J., Erschbamer, B., Calzado, M. R. F., et al. (2012) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate1329 · Cited by 1,266 · see citing works
Gene Flow and Local Adaptation in Trees
Savolainen, O., Pyhäjärvi, T., & Knürr, T. (2007) · Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics · doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.38.091206.095646 · Cited by 1,181 · see citing works
Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003.
Littell, J., McKenzie, D., Peterson, D., & Westerling, A. (2009) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/07-1183.1 · Cited by 1,120 · see citing works
Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation
Allen, C. D., & Breshears, D. D. (1998) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.95.25.14839 · Cited by 1,103 · see citing works
Self-citation
Reduced growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from temperature-induced drought stress
Barber, V. A., Juday, G. P., & Finney, B. P. (2000) · Nature · doi:10.1038/35015049 · Cited by 1,056 · see citing works
Fire and the Development of Oak Forests
Abrams, M. D. (1992) · BioScience · doi:10.2307/1311781 · Cited by 1,032 · see citing works
The interdependence of mechanisms underlying climate-driven vegetation mortality
McDowell, N. G., Beerling, D. J., Breshears, D. D., Fisher, R. A., Raffa, K. F., & Stitt, M. (2011) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2011.06.003 · Cited by 1,022 · see citing works
Temperature sensitivity of drought-induced tree mortality portends increased regional die-off under global-change-type drought
Adams, H. D., Guardiola‐Claramonte, M., Barron‐Gafford, G. A., Villegas, J. C., Breshears, D. D., Zou, C. B., Troch, P. A., & Huxman, T. E. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0901438106 · Cited by 1,005 · see citing works
Silviculture: Concepts and Applications
Nyland, R. D. (1996) · Medical Entomology and Zoology · Cited by 837 · see citing works
Southwestern Ponderosa Forest Structure: Changes Since Euro-American Settlement
Covington, W. W., & Moore, M. M. (1994) · Journal of Forestry · doi:10.1093/jof/92.1.39 · Cited by 786 · see citing works
Failure to migrate: lack of tree range expansion in response to climate change
Zhu, K., Woodall, C. W., & Clark, J. S. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02571.x · Cited by 748 · see citing works
Self-citation
Estimating potential habitat for 134 eastern US tree species under six climate scenarios
Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A., Matthews, S. N., & Peterson, D. L. (2007) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.07.023 · Cited by 716 · see citing works
Self-citation
The Principles of Forest Yield Study
(1970) · Elsevier eBooks · doi:10.1016/c2013-0-01587-3 · Cited by 680 · see citing works
Interactive effects of drought and pathogens in forest trees
Desprez‐Loustau, M., Marçais, B., Nageleisen, L.-M., Piou, D., & Vannini, A. (2006) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1051/forest:2006040 · Cited by 665 · see citing works
Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: Climate change or land abandonment?
Gehrig‐Fasel, J., Guisan, A., & Zimmermann, N. E. (2007) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.1111/j.1654-1103.2007.tb02571.x · Cited by 652 · see citing works
Self-citation
MOLECULAR INDICATORS OF TREE MIGRATION CAPACITY UNDER RAPID CLIMATE CHANGE
McLACHLAN, J. S., Clark, J. S., & Manos, P. S. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/04-1036 · Cited by 640 · see citing works
Self-citation
Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century
Westerling, A. L., Turner, M. G., Smithwick, E. A. H., Romme, W. H., & Ryan, M. G. (2011) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1110199108 · Cited by 630 · see citing works
Interactions between forest stands and microclimate: Ecophysiological aspects and consequences for silviculture
Aussenac, G. (2000) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1051/forest:2000119 · Cited by 630 · see citing works
Restoring ecosystem health in Ponderosa pine forests of the southwest
Covington, W. W., Fulé, P. Z., Moore, M. M., Hart, S. C., Kolb, T. E., Mast, J. N., Sackett, S. S., & Wagner, M. R. (1997) · Journal of Forestry · doi:10.1093/jof/95.4.23 · Cited by 595 · see citing works
The Red Maple Paradox
Abrams, M. D. (1998) · BioScience · doi:10.2307/1313374 · Cited by 594 · see citing works
Tree die‐off in response to global change‐type drought: mortality insights from a decade of plant water potential measurements
Breshears, D. D., Myers, O., Meyer, C. W., Barnes, F. J., Zou, C. B., Allen, C. D., McDowell, N. G., & Pockman, W. T. (2008) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1890/080016 · Cited by 552 · see citing works
Self-citation
Megadroughts in North America: placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long‐term palaeoclimate context
Cook, E. R., Seager, R., Heim, R. R., Vose, R. S., Herweijer, C., & Woodhouse, C. A. (2009) · Journal of Quaternary Science · doi:10.1002/jqs.1303 · Cited by 551 · see citing works
Forest responses to increasing aridity and warmth in the southwestern United States
Williams, A. P., Allen, C. D., Millar, C. I., Swetnam, T. W., Michaelsen, J., Still, C. J., & Leavitt, S. W. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0914211107 · Cited by 549 · see citing works
Self-citation
A multi-scale perspective of water pulses in dryland ecosystems: climatology and ecohydrology of the western USA
Loik, M. E., Breshears, D. D., Lauenroth, W. K., & Belnap, J. (2004) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/s00442-004-1570-y · Cited by 547 · see citing works
Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions
Jackson, S. T., Betancourt, J. L., Booth, R. K., & Gray, S. T. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0901644106 · Cited by 543 · see citing works
Self-citation
Differential tree mortality in response to severe drought: evidence for long‐term vegetation shifts
Mueller, R., Scudder, C. M., Porter, M. E., TROTTER, R. T., Gehring, C. A., & Whitham, T. G. (2005) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2005.01042.x · Cited by 541 · see citing works
Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Distribution of North American Trees
McKenney, D. W., Pedlar, J., Lawrence, K., Campbell, K., & Hutchinson, M. F. (2007) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/b571106 · Cited by 538 · see citing works
Drought effects on damage by forest insects and pathogens: a meta‐analysis
Jactel, H., Petit, J. N., Desprez‐Loustau, M., Delzon, S., Piou, D., Battisti, A., & Koricheva, J. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02512.x · Cited by 535 · see citing works
GENETIC RESPONSES TO CLIMATE INPINUS CONTORTA: NICHE BREADTH, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND REFORESTATION
Rehfeldt, G. E., Ying, C. C., Spittlehouse, D. L., & Hamilton, D. A. (1999) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/0012-9615(1999)069[0375:grtcip]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 528 · see citing works
Responses of insect pests, pathogens, and invasive plant species to climate change in the forests of northeastern North America: What can we predict?This article is one of a selection of papers from NE Forests 2100: A Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts on Forests of the Northeastern US and Eastern Canada.
Dukes, J. S., Pontius, J. A., Orwig, D. A., Garnas, J. R., Rodgers, V. L., Brazee, N. J., Cooke, B. J., Theoharides, K. A., Stange, E. E., Harrington, R. A., et al. (2009) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x08-171 · Cited by 516 · see citing works
The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species
Jump, A. S., Mátýas, C., & Peñuelas, J. (2009) · Trends in Ecology & Evolution · doi:10.1016/j.tree.2009.06.007 · Cited by 509 · see citing works
A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont
Beckage, B., Osborne, B. B., Gavin, D. G., Pucko, C. A., Siccama, T. G., & Perkins, T. D. (2008) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0708921105 · Cited by 500 · see citing works
Moving beyond static species distribution models in support of conservation biogeography
Franklin, J. (2010) · Diversity and Distributions · doi:10.1111/j.1472-4642.2010.00641.x · Cited by 488 · see citing works
Interpreting recruitment limitation in forests
Clark, J. S., Beckage, B., Camill, P., et al. (1999) · American Journal of Botany · doi:10.2307/2656950 · Cited by 475 · see citing works
Self-citation
Adaptations and responses to drought in Quercus species of North America
Abrams, M. D. (1990) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/7.1-2-3-4.227 · Cited by 473 · see citing works
Consequences of climate change for biotic disturbances in North American forests
Weed, A. S., Ayres, M. P., & Hicke, J. A. (2013) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/13-0160.1 · Cited by 472 · see citing works
Importance of root growth in overcoming planting stress
Grossnickle, S. C. (2005) · New Forests · doi:10.1007/s11056-004-8303-2 · Cited by 469 · see citing works
REFERENCE CONDITIONS AND ECOLOGICAL RESTORATION: A SOUTHWESTERN PONDEROSA PINE PERSPECTIVE
Moore, M. M., Covington, W. W., & Fulé, P. Z. (1999) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/1051-0761(1999)009[1266:rcaera]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 451 · see citing works
Drought disturbance from climate change: response of United States forests
Hanson, P. J., & Weltzin, J. F. (2000) · The Science of The Total Environment · doi:10.1016/s0048-9697(00)00523-4 · Cited by 449 · see citing works
Where Has All the White Oak Gone?
Abrams, M. D. (2003) · BioScience · doi:10.1641/0006-3568(2003)053[0927:whatwo]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
Evaluating theories of drought‐induced vegetation mortality using a multimodel–experiment framework
McDowell, N. G., Fisher, R. A., Xu, C., Domec, J., Hölttä, T., Mackay, D. S., Sperry, J. S., Boutz, A. L., Dickman, L. T., Gehres, N., et al. (2013) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12465 · Cited by 422 · see citing works
An Ecological Analysis of the Plant Communities of Piedmont, North Carolina
Oosting, H. J. (1942) · The American Midland Naturalist · doi:10.2307/2420696 · Cited by 418 · see citing works
Multiple interacting ecosystem drivers: toward an encompassing hypothesis of oak forest dynamics across eastern North America
McEwan, R. W., Dyer, J. M., & Pederson, N. (2011) · Ecography · doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06390.x · Cited by 418 · see citing works
Self-citation
Determining water use by trees and forests from isotopic, energy balance and transpiration analyses: the roles of tree size and hydraulic lift
Dawson, T. E. (1996) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/16.1-2.263 · Cited by 415 · see citing works
Evidence for a recent increase in forest growth
McMahon, S. M., Parker, G. G., & Miller, D. R. (2010) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0912376107 · Cited by 411 · see citing works
Upslope migration of Andean trees
Feeley, K. J., Silman, M. R., Bush, M. B., Farfán-Ríos, W., Cabrera, K. G., Malhi, Y. S., Meir, P., Salinas, N., Raurau-Quisiyupanqui, M. N., & Saatchi, S. S. (2010) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02444.x · Cited by 402 · see citing works
Causes and Ecosystem Consequences of Multiple Pathways of Primary Succession at Glacier Bay, Alaska
Fastie, C. L. (1995) · Ecology · doi:10.2307/1940722 · Cited by 394 · see citing works
Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species
Zimmermann, N. E., Yoccoz, N. G., Edwards, T. C., Meier, E. S., Thuiller, W., Guisan, A., Schmatz, D. R., & Pearman, P. B. (2009) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.0901643106 · Cited by 393 · see citing works
Self-citation
Physiological processes in plantation establishment and the development of specifications for forest planting stock
Burdett, A. N. (1990) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x90-059 · Cited by 391 · see citing works
Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?
Franklin, J., Davis, F. W., Ikegami, M., et al. (2012) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12051 · Cited by 386 · see citing works
Self-citation
Drought's legacy: multiyear hydraulic deterioration underlies widespread aspen forest die‐off and portends increased future risk
Anderegg, W. R. L., Plavcová, L., Anderegg, L. D. L., Hacke, U. G., Berry, J. A., & Field, C. B. (2012) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12100 · Cited by 384 · see citing works
Effects of thinning on drought vulnerability and climate response in north temperate forest ecosystems
D’Amato, A. W., Bradford, J. B., Fraver, S., & Palik, B. J. (2013) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/13-0677.1 · Cited by 376 · see citing works
Self-citation
Changes in drought response strategies with ontogeny in Quercus rubra: implications for scaling from seedlings to mature trees
Cavender-Bares, J. M., & Bazzaz, F. A. (2000) · Oecologia · doi:10.1007/pl00008865 · Cited by 361 · see citing works
THE ROLE OF STRESS IN THE MORTALITY OF MIDWESTERN OAKS AS INDICATED BY GROWTH PRIOR TO DEATH
Pedersen, B. S. (1998) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(1998)079[0079:trosit]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 347 · see citing works
Plant Migration and Climate Change
Pitelka, L. F., Gardner, R. H., Ash, J., et al. (1997) · University of Minnesota Digital Conservancy (University of Minnesota) · Cited by 345 · see citing works
Rodent population dynamics in a primeval deciduous forest (Białowieża National Park) in relation to weather, seed crop, and predation
Pucek, Z., Jędrzejewski, W., Jędrzejewska, B., & Pucek, M. (1993) · ACTA THERIOLOGICA · doi:10.4098/at.arch.93-18 · Cited by 324 · see citing works
Spatiotemporal patterns of observed bark beetle‐caused tree mortality in British Columbia and the western United States
Meddens, A. J. H., Hicke, J. A., & Ferguson, C. A. (2012) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/11-1785.1 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
Tree diversity does not always improve resistance of forest ecosystems to drought
Grossiord, C., Granier, A., Ratcliffe, S., Bouriaud, O., Bruelheide, H., Chećko, E., Forrester, D. I., Dawud, S. M., Finér, L., Pollastrini, M., et al. (2014) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1411970111 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
CLIMATE AND DISTURBANCE FORCING OF EPISODIC TREE RECRUITMENT IN A SOUTHWESTERN PONDEROSA PINE LANDSCAPE
Brown, P. M., & Wu, R. (2005) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/05-0034 · Cited by 319 · see citing works
Impact of fire suppression on a mixed-conifer forest
Parsons, D., & DeBenedetti, S. H. (1979) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/0378-1127(79)90034-3 · Cited by 316 · see citing works
Managed Relocation: Integrating the Scientific, Regulatory, and Ethical Challenges
Schwartz, M. W., Hellmann, J. J., McLachlan, J. M., Sax, D. F., Borevitz, J., Brennan, J., Camacho, A. E., Ceballos, G., Clark, J. R., Doremus, H. D., et al. (2012) · BioScience · doi:10.1525/bio.2012.62.8.6 · Cited by 305 · see citing works
Self-citation
How resilient are southwestern ponderosa pine forests after crown fires?
Savage, M., & Mast, J. N. (2005) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x05-028 · Cited by 300 · see citing works
How fast and far might tree species migrate in the eastern United States due to climate change?
Iverson, L. R., Schwartz, M. W., & Prasad, A. (2004) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-822x.2004.00093.x · Cited by 297 · see citing works
Self-citation
PROCESS-BASED MODELING OF SPECIES' DISTRIBUTIONS: WHAT LIMITS TEMPERATE TREE SPECIES' RANGE BOUNDARIES?
Morin, X., Augspurger, C. K., & Chuine, I. (2007) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/06-1591.1 · Cited by 287 · see citing works
Mortality Gradients within and among Dominant Plant Populations as Barometers of Ecosystem Change During Extreme Drought
GITLIN, A. R., Sthultz, C. M., Bowker, M. A., Stumpf, S., Paxton, K. L., Kennedy, K., MUÑOZ, A., Bailey, J. K., & Whitham, T. G. (2006) · Conservation Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1523-1739.2006.00424.x · Cited by 281 · see citing works
Recent declines of Populus tremuloides in North America linked to climate
(2013) · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2012.12.033 · Cited by 277 · see citing works
An indicator of tree migration in forests of the eastern United States
Woodall, C. W., Oswalt, C. M., Westfall, J. A., Perry, C. H., Nelson, M. D., & Finley, A. O. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.12.013 · Cited by 266 · see citing works
Self-citation
Climate, competition and connectivity affect future migration and ranges of European trees
Meier, E. S., Lischke, H., Schmatz, D. R., et al. (2011) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00669.x · Cited by 264 · see citing works
Forest responses to climate change in the northwestern United States: Ecophysiological foundations for adaptive management
Chmura, D. J., Anderson, P. D., Howe, G. T., Harrington, C. A., Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., Shaw, D. C., & Clair, J. B. S. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.12.040 · Cited by 262 · see citing works
Reconstruction and Analysis of Spring Rainfall over the Southeastern U.S. for the Past 1000 Years
Stahle, D. W., & Cleaveland, M. K. (1992) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1992)073 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
ESTIMATING POPULATION SPREAD: WHAT CAN WE FORECAST AND HOW WELL?
Clark, J. S., Lewis, M. A., McLACHLAN, J. S., & Lambers, J. H. R. (2003) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/01-0618 · Cited by 259 · see citing works
Self-citation
Elevated CO 2 increases tree‐level intrinsic water use efficiency: insights from carbon and oxygen isotope analyses in tree rings across three forest FACE sites
Battipaglia, G., Saurer, M. M., Cherubini, P., Calfapietra, C., McCarthy, H. R., Norby, R. J., & Cotrufo, M. F. (2012) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12044 · Cited by 255 · see citing works
More than the sum of the parts: forest climate response from joint species distribution models
Clark, J. S., Gelfand, A. E., Woodall, C. W., & Zhu, K. (2013) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/13-1015.1 · Cited by 249 · see citing works
Self-citation
Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobataNée) in the face of climate change
Sork, V. L., Davis, F. W., Westfall, R. D., Flint, A. L., Ikegami, M., WANG, H., & Grivet, D. (2010) · Molecular Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-294x.2010.04726.x · Cited by 247 · see citing works
Self-citation
Masting behaviour in beech: linking reproduction and climatic variation
Piovesan, G., & Adams, J. M. (2001) · Canadian Journal of Botany · doi:10.1139/b01-089 · Cited by 244 · see citing works
Local and Regional Sediment Charcoal Evidence for Fire Regimes in Presettlement North-Eastern North America
Clark, J. S., & Royall, P. D. (1996) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.2307/2261199 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
Self-citation
Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species
Reich, P. B., Sendall, K. M., Rice, K. E., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2497 · Cited by 239 · see citing works
The past ecology of Abies alba provides new perspectives on future responses of silver fir forests to global warming
Tinner, W., Colombaroli, D., Heiri, O., Henne, P. D., Steinacher, M., Untenecker, J., Vescovi, E., Allen, J. R. M., Carraro, G., Conedera, M., et al. (2013) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/12-2231.1 · Cited by 234 · see citing works
Interactions Across Spatial Scales among Forest Dieback, Fire, and Erosion in Northern New Mexico Landscapes
Allen, C. D. (2007) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-007-9057-4 · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Self-citation
Leaf structural characteristics of 31 hardwood and conifer tree species in central Wisconsin: Influence of light regime and shade-tolerance rank
Abrams, M. D., & Kubiske, M. E. (1990) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/0378-1127(90)90072-j · Cited by 231 · see citing works
Shifting with climate? Evidence for recent changes in tree species distribution at high latitudes
Boisvert‐Marsh, L., Périé, C., & de Blois, S. (2014) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es14-00111.1 · Cited by 230 · see citing works
The role of climate in a pine forest regeneration pulse in the southwestern United States
Savage, M., Brown, P. M., & Feddema, J. J. (1996) · Ecoscience · doi:10.1080/11956860.1996.11682348 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
Drought impact on forest growth and mortality in the southeast USA: an analysis using Forest Health and Monitoring data
Klos, R. J., Wang, G. G., Bauerle, W. L., & Rieck, J. R. (2009) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/08-0330.1 · Cited by 229 · see citing works
REGIONAL GRADIENT ANALYSIS AND SPATIAL PATTERN OF WOODY PLANT COMMUNITIES OF OREGON FORESTS
Ohmann, J. L., & Spies, T. A. (1998) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/0012-9615(1998)068[0151:rgaasp]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 224 · see citing works
Early indicators of change: divergent climate envelopes between tree life stages imply range shifts in the western U nited S tates
Bell, D. M., Bradford, J. B., & Lauenroth, W. K. (2013) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12109 · Cited by 219 · see citing works
Self-citation
Response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire to climate change scenarios for California
Lenihan, J. M., Bachelet, D., Neilson, R. P., & Drapek, R. (2008) · Climatic Change · doi:10.1007/s10584-007-9362-0 · Cited by 217 · see citing works
Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates
Clark, J. S., Bell, D. M., Hersh, M. H., et al. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02380.x · Cited by 216 · see citing works
Self-citation
The effect of fungal pathogens on the water and carbon economy of trees: implications for drought‐induced mortality
Oliva, J., Stenlid, J., & Martínez‐Vilalta, J. (2014) · New Phytologist · doi:10.1111/nph.12857 · Cited by 214 · see citing works
TreeMig: A forest-landscape model for simulating spatio-temporal patterns from stand to landscape scale
Lischke, H., Zimmermann, N. E., Bolliger, J., et al. (2006) · Ecological Modelling · doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2005.11.046 · Cited by 213 · see citing works
Self-citation
High temperature and drought stress effects on survival of Pinus ponderosa seedlings
Kolb, P. F., & Robberecht, R. (1996) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/16.8.665 · Cited by 210 · see citing works
Homeostatic Maintenance Of Ponderosa Pine Gas Exchange In Response To Stand Density Changes
McDowell, N. G., Adams, H. D., Bailey, J. D., Hess, M., & Kolb, T. E. (2006) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2006)016[1164:hmoppg]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 208 · see citing works
FOREST RESPONSE TO CATASTROPHIC WIND: RESULTS FROM AN EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE
Cooper-Ellis, S., Foster, D. R., Carlton, G. C., & Lezberg, A. L. (1999) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(1999)080[2683:frtcwr]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 206 · see citing works
Will environmental changes reinforce the impact of global warming on the prairie–forest border of central North America?
Frelich, L. E., & Reich, P. B. (2009) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1890/080191 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Quantifying surface albedo and other direct biogeophysical climate forcings of forestry activities
Bright, R. M., Zhao, K., Jackson, R. B., & Cherubini, F. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12951 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
The relationship between growth and mortality for seven co‐occurring tree species in the southern Appalachian Mountains
Wyckoff, P. H., & Clark, J. S. (2002) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2745.2002.00691.x · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Self-citation
PREDICTING BIODIVERSITY CHANGE: OUTSIDE THE CLIMATE ENVELOPE, BEYOND THE SPECIES–AREA CURVE
Ibáñez, I., Clark, J. S., Dietze, M. C., Feeley, K. J., Hersh, M. H., LaDeau, S. L., McBride, A. C., Welch, N., & Wolosin, M. S. (2006) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1896:pbcotc]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 203 · see citing works
Self-citation
Rising CO 2 Levels and the Fecundity of Forest Trees
LaDeau, S. L., & Clark, J. S. (2001) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1057547 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Self-citation
Chronic water stress reduces tree growth and the carbon sink of deciduous hardwood forests
Brzostek, E., Dragoni, D., Schmid, H. P., Rahman, A. F., Sims, D. A., Wayson, C. A., Johnson, D. J., & Phillips, R. P. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12528 · Cited by 201 · see citing works
Tree mortality in the eastern and central United States: patterns and drivers
Dietze, M. C., & Moorcroft, P. R. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02477.x · Cited by 198 · see citing works
A Meta-Analysis of the Fire-Oak Hypothesis: Does Prescribed Burning Promote Oak Reproduction in Eastern North America?
Brose, P. H., Dey, D. C., Phillips, R. J., & Waldrop, T. A. (2013) · Forest Science · doi:10.5849/forsci.12-039 · Cited by 194 · see citing works
FECUNDITY OF TREES AND THE COLONIZATION–COMPETITION HYPOTHESIS
Clark, J. S., LaDeau, S. L., & Ibáñez, I. (2004) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/02-4093 · Cited by 193 · see citing works
Self-citation
Interacting effects of changes in climate and forest cover on mortality and growth of the southernmost European fir forests
Linares, J. C., Camarero, J. J., & Carreira, J. A. (2009) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2009.00465.x · Cited by 191 · see citing works
Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California
Rapacciuolo, G., Maher, S. P., Schneider, A. C., Hammond, T. T., Jabis, M. D., Walsh, R. E., Iknayan, K. J., Walden, G. K., Oldfather, M. F., Ackerly, D. D., et al. (2014) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12638 · Cited by 190 · see citing works
Factors affecting interannual variation in growth of western Canadian aspen forests during 1951-2000
Hogg, E. H., Brandt, J. P., & Kochtubajda, B. (2005) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x04-211 · Cited by 185 · see citing works
Mast seeding under increasing drought: results from a long‐term data set and from a rainfall exclusion experiment
Pérez-Ramos, I. M., Ourcival, J. M., Limousin, J. M., & Rambal, S. (2010) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/09-2313.1 · Cited by 184 · see citing works
Influences of Forest Structure, Climate and Species Composition on Tree Mortality across the Eastern US
Lines, E. R., Coomes, D. A., & Purves, D. W. (2010) · PLoS ONE · doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013212 · Cited by 178 · see citing works
Relationship of stand characteristics to drought‐induced mortality in three Southwestern piñon–juniper woodlands
Floyd, M. L., Clifford, M. J., Cobb, N. S., Hanna, D. P., Delph, R. J., Ford, P. L., & Turner, D. (2009) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/08-1265.1 · Cited by 177 · see citing works
The legacy of episodic climatic events in shaping temperate, broadleaf forests
Pederson, N., Dyer, J. M., McEwan, R. W., Hessl, A., Mock, C. J., Orwig, D. A., Rieder, H. E., & Cook, B. I. (2014) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/13-1025.1 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Self-citation
Change in oak abundance in the eastern United States from 1980 to 2008
Fei, S., Kong, N., Steiner, K. C., et al. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.030 · Cited by 171 · see citing works
The Ecology and Silvics of Forests in the High Plateau of Pennsylvania
Hough, A. F., & Forbes, R. D. (1943) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.2307/1943224 · Cited by 170 · see citing works
Bark beetle-caused mortality in a drought-affected ponderosa pine landscape in Arizona, USA
Negrón, J. F., McMillin, J. D., Anhold, J. A., & Coulson, D. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.12.002 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Forest structure and species traits mediate projected recruitment declines in western US tree species
Dobrowski, S., Swanson, A., Abatzoglou, J., Holden, Z., Safford, H., Schwartz, M. K., & Gavin, D. (2015) · Global Ecology and Biogeography · doi:10.1111/geb.12302 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Self-citation
Perpetuating old ponderosa pine
Kolb, T. E., Agee, J. K., Fulé, P. Z., McDowell, N. G., Pearson, K. M., Sala, A., & Waring, R. H. (2007) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.06.002 · Cited by 168 · see citing works
Thinning, fire, and oak regeneration across a heterogeneous landscape in the eastern U.S.: 7-year results
Iverson, L. R., Hutchinson, T. F., Prasad, A., et al. (2007) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.09.088 · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Self-citation
Effects of drought on forests and rangelands in the United States: a comprehensive science synthesis
Vose, J. M., Clark, J. S., Luce, C. H., et al. (2016) · doi:10.2737/wo-gtr-93b · Cited by 166 · see citing works
Self-citation
DYNAMIC SIMULATION OF TREE–GRASS INTERACTIONS FOR GLOBAL CHANGE STUDIES
Daly, C., Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J. M., Neilson, R. P., Parton, W. J., & Ojima, D. S. (2000) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/1051-0761(2000)010[0449:dsotgi]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 164 · see citing works
North Carolina Climate Changes Reconstructed from Tree Rings: A.D. 372 to 1985
Stahle, D. W., Cleaveland, M. K., & HEHR, J. G. (1988) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.240.4858.1517 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States
Bachelet, D., Neilson, R. P., Hickler, T., Drapek, R. J., Lenihan, J. M., Sykes, M. T., Smith, B., Sitch, S. A., & Thonicke, K. (2003) · Global Biogeochemical Cycles · doi:10.1029/2001gb001508 · Cited by 161 · see citing works
Tree mortality in drought-stressed mixed-conifer and ponderosa pine forests, Arizona, USA
Ganey, J. L., & Vojta, S. C. (2010) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2010.09.048 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
EXPLOITING TEMPORAL VARIABILITY TO UNDERSTAND TREE RECRUITMENT RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Ibáñez, I., Clark, J. S., LaDeau, S. L., & Lambers, J. H. R. (2007) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/06-1097 · Cited by 157 · see citing works
Self-citation
Toward a mechanism for eastern North American forest mesophication: differential litter drying across 17 species
Kreye, J. K., Varner, J. M., Hiers, J. K., et al. (2013) · Ecological Applications · doi:10.1890/13-0503.1 · Cited by 153 · see citing works
Southern Mixed Hardwood Forest: Climax in the Southeastern Coastal Plain, U.S.A.
Quarterman, E., & Keever, C. (1962) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.2307/1942384 · Cited by 152 · see citing works
Evaluating the impacts of multiple generalist fungal pathogens on temperate tree seedling survival
Hersh, M. H., Vilgalys, R. J., & Clark, J. S. (2011) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/11-0598.1 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Self-citation
Geographic variation in growth response of Douglas‐fir to interannual climate variability and projected climate change
CHEN, P., Welsh, C., & Hamann, A. (2010) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02166.x · Cited by 150 · see citing works
Climate, weather, and recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in the western United States
Creeden, E. P., Hicke, J. A., & Buotte, P. C. (2013) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2013.09.051 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
ROLE OF MULTIDECADAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN A RANGE EXTENSION OF PINYON PINE
Gray, S. T., Betancourt, J. L., Jackson, S. T., & Eddy, R. G. (2006) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/0012-9658(2006)87[1124:romcvi]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Self-citation
Widespread drought episodes in the western Great Lakes region during the past 2000 years: Geographic extent and potential mechanisms
BOOTH, R., Notaro, M., Jackson, S. T., & KUTZBACH, J. (2006) · Earth and Planetary Science Letters · doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2005.12.028 · Cited by 147 · see citing works
Self-citation
Watering the forest for the trees: an emerging priority for managing water in forest landscapes
Grant, G. E., Tague, C., & Allen, C. D. (2013) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1890/120209 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Self-citation
Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region?*,+
Pederson, N., Bell, A. R., Cook, E. R., Lall, U., Devineni, N., Seager, R., Eggleston, K. L., & Vranes, K. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00723.1 · Cited by 145 · see citing works
Self-citation
Climate signal age effects—Evidence from young and old trees in the Swiss Engadin
Esper, J., Niederer, R., Bebi, P., et al. (2008) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2008.03.015 · Cited by 142 · see citing works
Revisiting projected shifts in the climate envelopes of North American trees using updated general circulation models
McKenney, D. W., Pedlar, J., Rood, R. B., et al. (2011) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02413.x · Cited by 141 · see citing works
Response of tree growth to climatic variation in the mixed conifer and deciduous forests of the upper Great Lakes region
Graumlich, L. J. (1993) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x93-020 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Compositional shifts in C osta R ican forests due to climate‐driven species migrations
Feeley, K. J., Hurtado, J., Saatchi, S. S., Silman, M. R., & Clark, D. B. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12300 · Cited by 138 · see citing works
Double whammy: high-severity fire and drought in ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest
Savage, M., Mast, J. N., & Feddema, J. (2013) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/cjfr-2012-0404 · Cited by 133 · see citing works
Dramatic response to climate change in the Southwest: Robert Whittaker's 1963 Arizona Mountain plant transect revisited
Brusca, R. C., Wiens, J. F., Meyer, W. M., Eble, J. A., Franklin, K. A., Overpeck, J. T., & Moore, W. (2013) · Ecology and Evolution · doi:10.1002/ece3.720 · Cited by 131 · see citing works
Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality
Luo, Y., & Chen, H. Y. H. (2013) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms2681 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history
Zhu, K., Woodall, C. W., Ghosh, S., et al. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12382 · Cited by 130 · see citing works
Self-citation
Twentieth-century decline of large-diameter trees in Yosemite National Park, California, USA
Lutz, J. A., van Wagtendonk, J. W., & Franklin, J. F. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.03.009 · Cited by 126 · see citing works
Projections of Future Drought in the Continental United States and Mexico
Wehner, M. F., Easterling, D. R., Lawrimore, J. H., Heim, R. R., Vose, R. S., & Santer, B. D. (2011) · Journal of Hydrometeorology · doi:10.1175/2011jhm1351.1 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
Harvest residue and competing vegetation affect soil moisture, soil temperature, N availability, and Douglas-fir seedling growth
Roberts, S. D., Harrington, C. A., & Terry, T. A. (2004) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2004.10.036 · Cited by 125 · see citing works
INFLUENCE OF LANDSCAPE STRUCTURE AND CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON A LATE HOLOCENE PLANT MIGRATION
Lyford, M. E., Jackson, S. T., Betancourt, J. L., & Gray, S. T. (2003) · Ecological Monographs · doi:10.1890/03-4011 · Cited by 124 · see citing works
Self-citation
Growth responses of West-Mediterranean Pinus nigra to climate change are modulated by competition and productivity: Past trends and future perspectives
Benito, D. M., Kint, V., del Rı́o, M., et al. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.05.038 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Modeling Forest Mortality Caused by Drought Stress: Implications for Climate Change
Gustafson, E. J., & Sturtevant, B. R. (2012) · Ecosystems · doi:10.1007/s10021-012-9596-1 · Cited by 123 · see citing works
Declines in pinyon pine cone production associated with regional warming
Redmond, M. D., Forcella, F., & Barger, N. N. (2012) · Ecosphere · doi:10.1890/es12-00306.1 · Cited by 122 · see citing works
Spatial Distribution of Water Supply in the Coterminous United States<sup>1</sup>
Brown, T. C., Hobbins, M. T., & Ramirez, J. A. (2008) · JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association · doi:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00252.x · Cited by 121 · see citing works
Impacts of drought on tree mortality and growth in a mixed hardwood forest
Elliott, K. J., & Swank, W. T. (1994) · Journal of Vegetation Science · doi:10.2307/3236155 · Cited by 120 · see citing works
A long-term perspective on a modern drought in the American Southeast
Pederson, N., Bell, A. R., Knight, T. A., Leland, C., Malcomb, N., Anchukaitis, K. J., Tackett, K. L., Scheff, J., Brice, A., Catron, B., et al. (2012) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/014034 · Cited by 118 · see citing works
Self-citation
Applying the seedling-emergence method under waterlogged conditions to detect the seed bank of aquatic plants in submerged sediments
Boedeltje, G., Heerdt, G. N. J. T., & Bakker, J. P. (2002) · Aquatic Botany · doi:10.1016/s0304-3770(01)00224-8 · Cited by 116 · see citing works
Woody debris and tree regeneration dynamics following severe wildfires in Arizona ponderosa pine forests
Roccaforte, J. P., Fulé, P. Z., Chancellor, W. W., & Laughlin, D. C. (2012) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x2012-010 · Cited by 115 · see citing works
Patterns of flammability of the California oaks: the role of leaf traits
Engber, E. A., & Varner, J. M. (2012) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x2012-138 · Cited by 114 · see citing works
The influence of spatial patterns of damping‐off disease and arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization on tree seedling establishment in Ghanaian tropical forest soil
Hood, L. A., Swaine, M. D., & MASON, P. A. (2004) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1111/j.0022-0477.2004.00917.x · Cited by 114 · see citing works
Carbon stocks of trees killed by bark beetles and wildfire in the western United States
Hicke, J. A., Meddens, A. J. H., Allen, C. D., & Kolden, C. A. (2013) · Environmental Research Letters · doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/035032 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Self-citation
Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of eastern California, USA; influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming
Millar, C. I., Westfall, R. D., Delany, D. L., Bokach, M. J., Flint, A. L., & Flint, L. E. (2012) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x2012-031 · Cited by 111 · see citing works
Dendrochronology of pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) in an old-growth pollarded woodland in northern Spain: tree-ring growth responses to climate
Rozas, V. (2005) · Annals of Forest Science · doi:10.1051/forest:2005012 · Cited by 110 · see citing works
Simulated effects of climate change, fragmentation, and inter-specific competition on tree species migration in northern Wisconsin, USA
Scheller, R., & Mladenoff, D. (2008) · Climate Research · doi:10.3354/cr00745 · Cited by 109 · see citing works
Silvicultural alternatives, competition regime and sensitivity to climate in a European beech forest
Cescatti, A., & Piutti, E. (1998) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/s0378-1127(97)00163-1 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Changes in forest structure of a mixed conifer forest, southwestern Colorado, USA
Fulé, P. Z., Korb, J. E., & Wu, R. (2009) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2009.06.015 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Post-fire ponderosa pine regeneration with and without planting in Arizona and New Mexico
Ouzts, J., Kolb, T. E., Huffman, D. W., & Meador, A. J. S. (2015) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.001 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Constraints to seed production: temperate and tropical forest trees
Owens, J. N. (1995) · Tree Physiology · doi:10.1093/treephys/15.7-8.477 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Historic fire regime dynamics and forcing factors in the Boston Mountains, Arkansas, USA
Guyette, R. P., Spetich, M. A., & Stambaugh, M. C. (2006) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.07.016 · Cited by 104 · see citing works
Modifying climate change habitat models using tree species-specific assessments of model uncertainty and life history-factors
Matthews, S. N., Iverson, L. R., Prasad, A., Peterson, D. L., & Rodewald, P. G. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.06.047 · Cited by 103 · see citing works
Self-citation
Does Rhododendron maximum L. (Ericaceae) Reduce the Availability of Resources Above and Belowground for Canopy Tree Seedlings?
Nilsen, E. T., Clinton, B. D., Lei, T. T., et al. (2001) · The American Midland Naturalist · doi:10.1674/0003-0031(2001)145[0325:drmler]2.0.co;2 · Cited by 102 · see citing works
Fire on the New England landscape: regional and temporal variation, cultural and environmental controls
Parshall, T., & Foster, D. R. (2002) · Journal of Biogeography · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2699.2002.00758.x · Cited by 101 · see citing works
Mast seeding in Abies balsamea, Acer saccharum and Betula alleghaniensis in an old growth, cold temperate forest of north‐eastern North America
Houle, G. (1999) · Journal of Ecology · doi:10.1046/j.1365-2745.1999.00352.x · Cited by 100 · see citing works
Intense wildfire in southeastern Arizona: transformation of a Madrean oak–pine forest to oak woodland
Barton, A. M. (2002) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/s0378-1127(01)00618-1 · Cited by 98 · see citing works
Competition-interaction landscapes for the joint response of forests to climate change
Clark, J. S., Bell, D. M., Kwit, M. C., & Zhu, K. (2013) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.12425 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Self-citation
Fire history and the establishment of oaks and maples in second-growth forests
Hutchinson, T. F., Long, R. P., Ford, R. D., et al. (2008) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x07-216 · Cited by 96 · see citing works
Large‐scale spatial synchrony and cross‐synchrony in acorn production by two California oaks
Koenig, W. D., & Knops, J. M. H. (2013) · Ecology · doi:10.1890/12-0940.1 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Projected Future Changes in Vegetation in Western North America in the Twenty-First Century
Jiang, X., Rauscher, S. A., Ringler, T. D., Lawrence, D. M., Williams, P., Allen, C. D., Steiner, A. L., Cai, D. M., & McDowell, N. G. (2012) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00430.1 · Cited by 93 · see citing works
Self-citation
Forest structure and regeneration following a mountain pine beetle epidemic in southeastern Wyoming
Kayes, L. J., & Tinker, D. B. (2011) · Forest Ecology and Management · doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2011.09.035 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011
Foster, J. R., & D’Amato, A. W. (2015) · Global Change Biology · doi:10.1111/gcb.13046 · Cited by 92 · see citing works
Self-citation
Fuel treatments and fire severity: A meta-analysis
Martinson, E. J., & Omi, P. N. (2013) · doi:10.2737/rmrs-rp-103 · Cited by 91 · see citing works
Effects of regeneration methods on drought damage to newly planted Norway spruce seedlings
Nilsson, U., & Örlander, G. (1995) · Canadian Journal of Forest Research · doi:10.1139/x95-086 · Cited by 90 · see citing works

Flagged first, then by citations

Research works printed but not linked: 11

[36]36. Brown TC, Hobbins MT, Ramirez JA (2008) Spatial distribution of water supply in the coterminous United States1. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 44, 1474-1487.
[47]47. Clark JS (1989) Water balance and fire occurrence during the last 160 years in north- western Minnesota. Journal of Ecology, 77, 989-1004.
[59]59. Cook ER, Meko DM, Stahle DW, Cleaveland MK (1999) Drought reconstructions for the continental United States. Journal of Climate, 12, 1145-1162.
[100]100. Fritts HC (1976) Tree Rings and Climate. Academic Press, New York, NY.
[125]125. Harper JL (1977) Polulation Biology of Plants. Academic Press, London.
[158]158. Kolb TE, Agee JK, Fule PZ, McDowell NG, Pearson K, Sala A, Waring RH (2007) Per- petuating old ponderosa pine. Forest Ecology and Management, 249, 141-157.
[160]160. Kukowski KR, Schwinning S, Schwartz BF (2012) Hydraulic responses to extreme drought conditions in three co-dominant tree species in shallow soil over bedrock. Oecologia. doi:10.1007/s00442-012-2466. · DOI
[201]201. Minnich RA 2007. Southern California coniferous forest. In: Terrestrial vegetation of California, 3rd edn (eds Barbour MG, Keeler-Wolf T, Schoenherr AS), pp. 339-336. Chapter
[215]215. O'Connor CD 2013. Spatial and temporal dynamics of disturbance interactions along an ecological gradient. Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ.
[281]281. Twidwell D, Wonkka CL, Taylor CA Jr, Zou CB, Twidwell JJ, Rogers WE (2013) Drought-induced woody plant mortality in an encroached semi-arid savanna depends on topoedaphic factors and land management. Applied Vegetation Science. doi: 10.1111/avsc. · DOI
[285]285. Wackerman AE (1929) Why prairies in Arkansas and Louisiana? Journal of Forestry, 27, 726-734.

Sorted by citations

Changing wildfire, changing forests: the effects of climate change on fire regimes and vegetation in the Pacific Northwest, USA
Halofsky, J. E., Peterson, D. L., & Harvey, B. J. (2020) · Fire Ecology · doi:10.1186/s42408-019-0062-8 · Cited by 640 · see citing works
Long-term climate and competition explain forest mortality patterns under extreme drought
Young, D. J. N., Stevens, J. T., Earles, J. M., Moore, J., Ellis, A., Jirka, A. L., & Latimer, A. M. (2017) · Ecology Letters · doi:10.1111/ele.12711 · Cited by 443 · see citing works
Drought, Tree Mortality, and Wildfire in Forests Adapted to Frequent Fire
Stephens, S. L., Collins, B. M., Fettig, C. J., Finney, M. A., Hoffman, C. M., Knapp, E. E., North, M. P., Safford, H., & Wayman, R. B. (2018) · BioScience · doi:10.1093/biosci/bix146 · Cited by 407 · see citing works
A window of opportunity for climate-change adaptation: Easing tree mortality by reducing forest basal area
Bradford, J. B., & Bell, D. M. (2017) · Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment · doi:10.1002/fee.1445 · Cited by 144 · see citing works
Self-citation
Lower cost and more feasible options to restore forest cover in the contiguous United States for climate mitigation
Cook-Patton, S. C., Gopalakrishna, T., Daigneault, A., Leavitt, S. M., Platt, J., Scull, S. M., Amarjargal, O., Ellis, P. W., Griscom, B. W., McGuire, J. L., et al. (2020) · One Earth · doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2020.11.013 · Cited by 57 · see citing works
Forest Drought Resistance at Large Geographic Scales
Brodrick, P. G., Anderegg, L. D. L., & Asner, G. P. (2019) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2018gl081108 · Cited by 48 · see citing works
Exploring the impact of thinning operations on forest ecosystems in tropical and temperate regions worldwide: a comprehensive review
Rajeev, J., Kumar, K. C. J., Prasad, D. P., & Utpal, D. (2023) · Journal of Resources and Ecology · doi:10.5814/j.issn.1674-764x.2023.06.011 · Cited by 13 · see citing works

Insect Biodiversity in the Palearctic Region
KONSTANTINOV, A. S., KOROTYAEV, B. A., & Volkovitsh, M. G. (2009) · doi:10.1002/9781444308211.ch7 · Cited by 62 · see citing works
Biodiversity
Hoef, J. M. V. (2012) · Encyclopedia of Environmetrics · doi:10.1002/9780470057339.vab016.pub2 · Cited by 1 · see citing works
Biodiversity
Hoef, J. M. V. (2001) · Encyclopedia of Environmetrics · doi:10.1002/9780470057339.vab016
Modelling eDNA transport in river networks reveals highly resolved spatio-temporal patterns of freshwater biodiversityPreprint
Carraro, L., Blackman, R. C., & Altermatt, F. (2022) · bioRxiv · doi:10.1101/2022.01.25.475970 · Cited by 3 · see citing works
Forest Dynamics Models for Conservation, Restoration, and Management of Small Forests
Benson, D. L., King, E. G., & O’Brien, J. J. (2022) · Forests · doi:10.3390/f13040515 · Cited by 8 · see citing works

Authors: Clark, J. S., Iverson, L., Woodall, C. W., Allen, C. D., Bell, D. M., Bragg, D. C., D'Amato, A. W., Davis, F. W., Hersh, M. H., Ibanez, I., Jackson, S. T., Matthews, S., Pederson, N., Peters, M., Schwartz, M. W., Waring, K. M., & Zimmermann, N. E.
Affiliations: Duke University (US)
US Forest Service (US)
Fort Collins Science Center (US)
Pacific Northwest Research Station (US)
Southern Research Station (US)
Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources University of Vermont 04E Aiken Center, 81 Carrigan Dr. Burlington VT 05405 USA
University of California, Santa Barbara (US)
Sarah Lawrence College (US)
School of Natural Resources and Environment University of Michigan 2546 Dana Building Ann Arbor MI 48109 USA
United States Geological Survey (US)
The Ohio State University (US)
Harvard University (US)
Forest Service Northern Research Station Delaware OH 43015 USA
University of California, Davis (US)
Northern Arizona University (US)
Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (CH)
Corresponding author: Clark, James S.
ORCID: Clark, James S.
Iverson, Louis
Woodall, Christopher W.
Allen, Craig D.
Bell, David M.
Bragg, Don C.
Davis, Frank W.
Hersh, Michelle H.
Jackson, Stephen T.
Matthews, Stephen
Pederson, Neil
Schwartz, Mark W.
Waring, Kristen M.
Zimmermann, Niklaus E.
Venue: Global Change Biology
Publisher: Wiley
Published: 2016-02-21
Volume: 22
Issue: 7
Pages: 2329-2352
ISSN: 1354-1013 (ISSN-L)
1365-2486
DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13160
OpenAlex: W2286881062
Cited by: 606
References: 292
Citations by year: 2026: 55 · 2025: 46 · 2024: 58 · 2023: 65 · 2022: 70 · 2021: 87 · 2020: 58 · 2019: 53 · 2018: 59 · 2017: 36 · 2016: 19
FWCI: 6.07
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: bronze
doi.org
Licence: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#am (am, 366 d)
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/termsAndConditions#vor (vor)
Locations: Global Change Biology (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Deep Blue (University of Michigan) (submittedVersion)
DORA WSL (Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research) (submittedVersion)
eScholarship (California Digital Library) (submittedVersion)
Funders: National Science Foundation (EF‐1550911)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Fire effects on ecosystems
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Forest Insect Ecology and Management
Keywords: drought impacts, forest dynamics, forest structure, forest biodiversity, western forests, eastern forests, tree dieback, range limits, tree migration, forest management, silviculture, drought-tolerant species, forest regeneration, stand density
MeSH terms: Trees, United States, Ecosystem, Biodiversity, Droughts, Forests

About these checks

Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.

Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.

Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.

What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›

Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

Abstract

Integrity signals

Claims the paper makes

Claims other papers make about this one

Self-check

Cites

Cited by

Related

Record

About these checks