Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Satellite altimetry has shown that global mean sea level has been rising at a rate of ∼3 ± 0.4 mm/y since 1993. Using the altimeter record coupled with careful consideration of interannual and decadal variability as well as potential instrument errors, we show that this rate is accelerating at 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 , which agrees well with climate model projections. If sea level continues to change at this rate and acceleration, sea-level rise by 2100 (∼65 cm) will be more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Integrity signals
Registry
Cites
Statistics
Claims the paper makes
The claims and statistics of this paper haven’t been checked yet.
Run the check — free, no account needed. It reads the open-access text and checks the sources it cites.
Claims other papers make about this one
Each is checked against this paper’s own text: does it say what the citing paper says it does?
Mainstream estimates of sea-level rise range from 0.29 to 1.1 m by the end of the twenty-first century.
“Mainstream estimates range from 0.29 to 1.1 m by the end of the twenty-first century [33, 34], and higher rates are possible if ice sheet and permafrost melting occur faster than anticipated [35].”
From Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife. (2020) · cites this paper as [34]
The projection passage (section labeled Abstract; page unavailable) estimates 654 ± 119 mm of sea-level rise by 2100 and says this is similar to an IPCC model projection. It supports the general point that sea-level rise is projected by century’s end, but does not give or substantiate the attributed range of 0.29 to 1.1 m. (LLM, conf=0.82)
Experimental — accuracy not yet measured
Self-check
Percentages, sums and reported differences re-computed from the paper’s own numbers.
The self-check needs the paper’s full text.
Cites
Kay, J. E., Deser, C., Phillips, A. S., Mai, A., Hannay, C., Strand, G., Arblaster, J. M., Bates, S. C., Gokhan Danabasoglu, C., Edwards, J., et al. (2014) · Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · doi:10.1175/bams-d-13-00255.1 · Cited by 2,496 · see citing works
A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise
Church, J. A., & White, N. J. (2006) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2005gl024826 · Cited by 1,627 · see citing works
A Reconciled Estimate of Glacier Contributions to Sea Level Rise: 2003 to 2009
Gardner, A., Moholdt, G., Cogley, J. G., Wouters, B., Arendt, A. A., Wahr, J., Berthier, É., Hock, R., Pfeffer, W. T., Kaser, G., et al. (2013) · Science · doi:10.1126/science.1234532 · Cited by 1,282 · see citing works
WATKINS, M. M., Wiese, D. N., Yuan, D., Böening, C., & Landerer, F. W. (2015) · Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth · doi:10.1002/2014jb011547 · Cited by 1,280 · see citing works
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., & Zhu, J. (2017) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.1601545 · Cited by 875 · see citing works
Self-citationAbraham, J., Baringer, M., Bindoff, N. L., et al. (2013) · Reviews of Geophysics · doi:10.1002/rog.20022 · Cited by 539 · see citing works
Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions
Nerem, R. S., Chambers, D. P., Choe, C., et al. (2010) · Marine Geodesy · doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491031 · Cited by 499 · see citing works
Self-citationThe increasing rate of global mean sea-level rise during 1993–2014
Chen, X., Zhang, X., Church, J. A., Watson, C. S., King, M. A., Monselesan, D. P., Legrésy, B., & Harig, C. (2017) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3325 · Cited by 424 · see citing works
The 2011 La Niña: So strong, the oceans fell
Böening, C., Willis, J. K., Landerer, F. W., Nerem, R. S., & Fasullo, J. (2012) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2012gl053055 · Cited by 409 · see citing works
Self-citationReassessment of 20th century global mean sea level rise
Dangendorf, S., Marcos, M., Wöppelmann, G., et al. (2017) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.1616007114 · Cited by 390 · see citing works
Unabated global mean sea-level rise over the satellite altimeter era
Watson, C. S., White, N. J., Church, J. A., et al. (2015) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate2635 · Cited by 321 · see citing works
New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach
Dieng, H. B., Cazenave, A., Meyssignac, B., et al. (2017) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2017gl073308 · Cited by 246 · see citing works
Australia's unique influence on global sea level in 2010–2011
Fasullo, J., Böening, C., Landerer, F. W., et al. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50834 · Cited by 205 · see citing works
Self-citationChanges in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012
Allan, R. P., Liu, C., Loeb, N. G., Palmer, M. D., Roberts, M. J., Smith, D. M., & Vidale, P. L. (2014) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/2014gl060962 · Cited by 191 · see citing works
An Anomalous Recent Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise
Merrifield, M. A., Merrifield, S. T., & Mitchum, G. T. (2009) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/2009jcli2985.1 · Cited by 183 · see citing works
Self-citationSatellite Altimetry-Based Sea Level at Global and Regional Scales
Ablain, M., Legeais, J., Prandi, P., et al. (2016) · Surveys in Geophysics · doi:10.1007/s10712-016-9389-8 · Cited by 176 · see citing works
Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise
Haigh, I. D., Wahl, T., Rohling, E. J., et al. (2014) · Nature Communications · doi:10.1038/ncomms4635 · Cited by 169 · see citing works
Ongoing glacial isostatic contributions to observations of sea level change
Tamisiea, M. E. (2011) · Geophysical Journal International · doi:10.1111/j.1365-246x.2011.05116.x · Cited by 167 · see citing works
Improving estimates of Earth's energy imbalance
Johnson, G. C., Lyman, J. M., & Loeb, N. G. (2016) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/nclimate3043 · Cited by 160 · see citing works
Mitchum, G. T. (2000) · Marine Geodesy · doi:10.1080/01490410050128591 · Cited by 158 · see citing works
Self-citationNerem, R. S., Chambers, D. P., Leuliette, E. W., et al. (1999) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/1999gl002311 · Cited by 151 · see citing works
Self-citationLimits in detecting acceleration of ice sheet mass loss due to climate variability
Wouters, B., Bamber, J. L., van den Broeke, M. R., et al. (2013) · Nature Geoscience · doi:10.1038/ngeo1874 · Cited by 149 · see citing works
Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., von Schuckmann, K., & Cheng, L. (2016) · Journal of Climate · doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0339.1 · Cited by 140 · see citing works
Self-citationBeckley, B. D., Callahan, P. S., Hancock, D. W., et al. (2017) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2017jc013090 · Cited by 117 · see citing works
Self-citationBeckley, B., Zelensky, N., Holmes, S., Lemoine, F., Ray, R., Mitchum, G., Desai, S., & Brown, S. (2010) · Marine Geodesy · doi:10.1080/01490419.2010.491029 · Cited by 108 · see citing works
Self-citationContribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation to global mean sea level trends
Hamlington, B. D., Leben, R. R., Strassburg, M. W., et al. (2013) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1002/grl.50950 · Cited by 107 · see citing works
Self-citationAn ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level
Hamlington, B. D., Cheon, S., Thompson, P. R., et al. (2016) · Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans · doi:10.1002/2016jc011815 · Cited by 84 · see citing works
Self-citationConsensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses
Wang, G., Cheng, L., Abraham, J., et al. (2017) · Climate Dynamics · doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5 · Cited by 78 · see citing works
Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent?
Fasullo, J., Nerem, R. S., & Hamlington, B. D. (2016) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/srep31245 · Cited by 74 · see citing works
Self-citationAn Ongoing Shift in Pacific Ocean Sea Level
Cheon, S., Hamlington, B. D., Thompson, P. R., et al. (2016) · AGUFM · Cited by 23 · see citing works
Self-citationSeparating decadal global water cycle variability from sea level rise
Hamlington, B. D., Reager, J. T., Lo, M., et al. (2017) · Scientific Reports · doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00875-5 · Cited by 21 · see citing works
Self-citationObservational Advances in Estimates of Oceanic Heating
Desbruyères, D. G., McDonagh, E. L., & King, B. (2016) · Current Climate Change Reports · doi:10.1007/s40641-016-0037-7 · Cited by 10 · see citing works
Flagged first, then by citations
Research works printed but not linked: 2
- [24]Church JA 2013 Sea level change Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge Univ Press Cambridge, UK 1137 1215
- [27]Wiese DN Yuan D-N Boening C Landerer FW Watkins MM 2016 JPL GRACE Mascon Ocean, Ice, and Hydrology Equivalent Water Height RL05M.1 CRI Filtered (PO.DAAC, Pasadena, CA). Version 2. Available at dx.doi.org/10.5067/TEMSC-2LCR5. Accessed October 1, 2017 · DOI
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Accelerated global glacier mass loss in the early twenty-first century
Hugonnet, R., McNabb, R., Berthier, E., Menounos, B., Nuth, C., Girod, L., Farinotti, D., Huss, M., Dussaillant, I., Brun, F., et al. (2021) · Nature · doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03436-z · Cited by 1,910 · see citing works
The direct drivers of recent global anthropogenic biodiversity loss
Jaureguiberry, P., Titeux, N., Wiemers, M., Bowler, D. E., Coscieme, L., Golden, A. S., Guerra, C. A., Jacob, U., Takahashi, Y., Settele, J., et al. (2022) · Science Advances · doi:10.1126/sciadv.abm9982 · Cited by 1,121 · see citing works
“While quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change—the driver that is studied most often ( 18 )—show increases over time ( 44 , 45 ) that are projected to continue ( 5 , 46 , 47 ), similarly robust information is not yet readily available for the less studied drivers.”
Satellite and Ocean Data Reveal Marked Increase in Earth’s Heating Rate
Loeb, N. G., Johnson, G. C., Thorsen, T. J., Lyman, J. M., Rose, F. G., & Kato, S. (2021) · Geophysical Research Letters · doi:10.1029/2021gl093047 · Cited by 327 · see citing works
Machine-learning-based evidence and attribution mapping of 100,000 climate impact studies
Callaghan, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Nath, S., Lejeune, Q., Knutson, T. R., Reichstein, M., Hansen, G., Theokritoff, E., Andrijevic, M., Brecha, R. J., et al. (2021) · Nature Climate Change · doi:10.1038/s41558-021-01168-6 · Cited by 251 · see citing works
Climate Change, Migration, and Civil Strife.
Balsari, S., Dresser, C., & Leaning, J. (2020) · Current Environmental Health Reports · doi:10.1007/s40572-020-00291-4 · Cited by 135 · see citing works
- Authors
- Nerem, R. S., Beckley, B. D., Fasullo, J. T., Hamlington, B. D., Masters, D., & Mitchum, G. T.
- Affiliations
- Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (US)
- Goddard Space Flight Center (US)
- NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (US)
- Old Dominion University (US)
- University of South Florida St. Petersburg (US)
- Corresponding author
- Nerem, R. S.
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2018-02-12
- Volume
- 115
- Issue
- 9
- Pages
- 2022-2025
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC5834701
- OpenAlex
- W2790934709
- Cited by
- 1,121
- References
- 32
- Citations by year
- 2026: 85 · 2025: 93 · 2024: 108 · 2023: 138 · 2022: 131 · 2021: 210 · 2020: 174 · 2019: 129 · 2018: 53
- FWCI
- 90.87
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- ODU Digital Commons (Old Dominion University) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- Digital Commons - University of South Florida (University of South Florida) (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- NOAA Institutional Repository (submittedVersion, public-domain)
- Funders
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NNX13AI26G, NNX17AH35G, NNX14AJ98G, NNH12ZDA001N, NNX16AH56G)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
- Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes
- Keywords
- sea level rise, satellite altimetry, interannual and decadal variability, instrument error, climate model projections, climate change
About these checks
Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
Statistics and arithmetic are recomputed, not judged.
Confidence bands are shown only for fields calibrated on our annotated test set. None is calibrated yet, so no band is shown.
What counts as a claim ›How we measure confidence ›How we check this ›
Are you an author, or do you see a problem with this page? Request a review
