Cited by 343Climate variability and modelsClimate Change and Health ImpactsVibrio bacteria research studies

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ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?

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Rodó, Xavier, Pascual, Mercedes, Fuchs, George, Faruque, A. S. G.·2002·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI 10.1073/pnas.182203999PMC PMC130557

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Abstract

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980–2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893–1920 and 1920–1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.

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Authors: Rodó, X., Pascual, M., Fuchs, G., & Faruque, A. S. G.
Affiliations: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research (BD)
ORCID: Rodó, Xavier
Pascual, Mercedes
Fuchs, George
Faruque, A. S. G.
Venue: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
Published: 2002-09-12
Volume: 99
Issue: 20
Pages: 12901-12906
ISSN: 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
1091-6490
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.182203999
PMC: PMC130557
OpenAlex: W1995628326
Cited by: 343
References: 40
Citations by year: 2026: 6 · 2025: 7 · 2024: 8 · 2023: 8 · 2022: 9 · 2021: 34 · 2020: 15 · 2019: 8 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 32 · 2016: 14 · 2015: 11 · 2014: 15 · 2013: 13 · 2012: 14
FWCI: 14.99
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: green
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Locations: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion)
Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion)
PubMed Central (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Climate variability and models
Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Life Sciences › Immunology and Microbiology › Microbiology › Vibrio bacteria research studies
Keywords: ENSO, cholera, interannual climate variability, climate-disease association, Southern Oscillation Index, climate change and infectious diseases, Bangladesh
MeSH terms: Cholera, Climate, Communicable Diseases, Disease Outbreaks, Environment, Environmental Health, Humans, Temperature, Time Factors, Models, Statistical

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ENSO and cholera: A nonstationary link related to climate change?

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