Population aging, migration, and productivity in Europe
Open accessAbstract
Significance: Migration is one of the most controversial political topics in industrialized countries. One important aspect is population aging and the prospects of a shrinking labor force in case of low or no immigration. We address this aspect systematically through multidimensional microsimulations for all European Union (EU) member states. The outcome variables considered go beyond the conventional old-age dependency ratios by also studying labor-force dependency ratios and the introduced productivity-weighted labor-force dependency ratio. We consider a wide range of future migration scenarios differing by volume, educational selectivity of migrants, and labor market integration efforts. Combined with alternative scenarios of labor-force participation for the EU-born population, the findings provide scientific insights for future migration and labor policies in Europe.
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The productivity-weighted labour force dependency ratio (PWLFDR) captures the fact that younger cohorts are often more highly educated and productive than older cohorts are, so that the future working-age population will on average be more educated, more likely to work and more productive.
“The productivity weighted labour force dependency ratio (PWLFDR) captures the fact that younger cohorts are often more highly educated and productive than older cohorts are, so that the future working-age population will on average be more educated, more likely to work and more productive.”
From Future population ageing and productivity in Finland under different education and fertility scenarios (2022) · cites this paper as Marois, Bélanger & Lutz, 2020
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Cites
Estimating Marginal Returns to Education
Carneiro, P., Heckman, J. J., & Vytlacil, E. J. (2011) · American Economic Review · doi:10.1257/aer.101.6.2754 · Cited by 612 · see citing works
Annual Levels of Immigration and Immigrant Entry Earnings in Canada
Hou, F., & Picot, G. (2014) · Canadian Public Policy · doi:10.3138/cpp.2013-017 · Cited by 22 · cited 1× · see citing works
“a larger number of immigrants might deteriorate their economic integration, because resources from the government are limited and the competition among workers with similar profile would be more intense (24).”
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Research works printed but not linked: 9
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Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2024) · Annual Review of Economics · doi:10.1146/annurev-economics-081523-013750 · Cited by 42 · see citing works
Marois, G., Rotkirch, A., & Lutz, W. (2022) · Finnish Yearbook of Population Research · doi:10.23979/fypr.119666 · Cited by 11 · see citing works
Self-citationFertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences
Bloom, D. E., Kuhn, M., & Prettner, K. (2023) · doi:10.2139/ssrn.4597716 · Cited by 9 · see citing works
- Authors
- Marois, G., Bélanger, A., & Lutz, W.
- Affiliations
- Shanghai University (CN)
- University of Vienna (AT)
- Corresponding author
- Marois, Guillaume
- Lutz, Wolfgang
- Venue
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Publisher
- National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2020-03-23
- Volume
- 117
- Issue
- 14
- Pages
- 7690-7695
- ISSN
- 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
- 1091-6490
- PMC
- PMC7149428
- OpenAlex
- W3012913128
- Cited by
- 164
- References
- 2
- Citations by year
- 2026: 16 · 2025: 33 · 2024: 45 · 2023: 23 · 2022: 27 · 2021: 18 · 2020: 1
- FWCI
- 14.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- hybrid
- doi.org
- Licence
- Locations
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- IIASA PURE (International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis) (acceptedVersion)
- EspaceINRS (National Institute for Scientific Research (Canada)) (submittedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Economic Growth and Productivity
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Migration and Labor Dynamics
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Keywords
- population aging, immigration, labor force participation, age dependency ratio, immigrant integration, education and productivity, EU member states, economic dependence
- MeSH terms
- Aging, Efficiency, Emigration and Immigration, Employment, Europe, Humans, Population Dynamics
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