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Cited by 243Family Dynamics and RelationshipsCOVID-19 Impact on ReproductionCOVID-19 epidemiological studies

Early assessment of the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and births in high-income countries

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Aassve, Arnstein, Cavalli, Nicolò, Mencarini, Letizia, Plach, Samuel, Sanders, Seth·2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2105709118PMC PMC8433569
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Abstract

Drawing on past pandemics, scholars have suggested that the COVID-19 pandemic will bring about fertility decline. Evidence from actual birth data has so far been scarce. This brief report uses data on vital statistics from a selection of high-income countries, including the United States. The pandemic has been accompanied by a significant drop in crude birth rates beyond that predicted by past trends in 7 out of the 22 countries considered, with particularly strong declines in southern Europe: Italy (−9.1%), Spain (−8.4%), and Portugal (−6.6%). Substantial heterogeneities are, however, observed.

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  • Following the COVID-19 pandemic, which featured a short-term fertility bust in many countries, most of these countries have experienced a rebound even beyond prepandemic levels.

    “Following the pandemic, which featured a short-term fertility bust in many countries (Aassve et al. 2021), most of these countries have experienced a rebound even beyond prepandemic levels (Sobotka et al. 2023).”

    From Fertility in High-Income Countries: Trends, Patterns, Determinants, and Consequences (2024) · cites this paper as Aassve et al. 2021

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Research works printed but not linked: 12

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  12. [15]T. Sobotka., Baby bust in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic? First results from the new STFF data series. SocArXiv [Preprint] (2021). 10.31235/osf.io/mvy62 (Accessed 23 July 2021). · DOI

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Authors
Aassve, A., Cavalli, N., Mencarini, L., Plach, S., & Sanders, S.
Affiliations
  • Bocconi University (IT)
  • University of Oxford (GB)
  • Cornell University (US)
Corresponding author
Aassve, Arnstein
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2021-08-30
Volume
118
Issue
36
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2105709118
PMC
PMC8433569
OpenAlex
W3198001526
Cited by
243
References
1
Citations by year
2026: 11 · 2025: 17 · 2024: 38 · 2023: 41 · 2022: 47 · 2021: 89
FWCI
84.70
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • Europe PMC (PubMed Central) (publishedVersion, other-oa)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
  • Archivio istituzionale della Ricerca - Bocconi (submittedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
Funders
EC | Horizon 2020 (694145)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Demography › Family Dynamics and Relationships
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Obstetrics and Gynecology › COVID-19 Impact on Reproduction
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Modeling and Simulation › COVID-19 epidemiological studies
Keywords
COVID-19 pandemic, fertility decline, birth rate, crude birth rate, vital statistics, high-income countries, Southern Europe, Italy, Spain, Portugal, United States
MeSH terms
COVID-19, Birth Rate, Europe, Female, Humans, Male, Population Growth, Pregnancy, United States, Pandemics

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