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Cited by 51Ecosystem dynamics and resiliencePlant Water Relations and Carbon DynamicsPlant Ecology and Soil Science

Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest–savanna coexistence

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Mattos, Caio R. C., Hirota, Marina, Oliveira, Rafael S., Flores, Bernardo M., Miguez-Macho, Gonzalo, Pokhrel, Yadu, Fan, Ying·2023·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.1073/pnas.2301255120PMC PMC10438376
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Abstract

Forest–savanna boundaries are ecotones that support complex ecosystem functions and are sensitive to biotic/abiotic perturbations. What drives their distribution today and how it may shift in the future are open questions. Feedbacks among climate, fire, herbivory, and land use are known drivers. Here, we show that alternating seasonal drought and waterlogging stress favors the dominance of savanna-like ecosystems over forests. We track the seasonal water-table depth as an indicator of water stress when too deep and oxygen stress when too shallow and map forest/savanna occurrence within this double-stress space in the neotropics. We find that under a given annual precipitation, savannas are favored in landscape positions experiencing double stress, which is more common as the dry season strengthens (climate driver) but only found in waterlogged lowlands (terrain driver). We further show that hydrological changes at the end of the century may expose some flooded forests to savanna expansion, affecting biodiversity and soil carbon storage. Our results highlight the importance of land hydrology in understanding/predicting forest–savanna transitions in a changing world.

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  • Although these ecosystem transitions have been confirmed only in the Negro river basin, floodplain forests in other parts of the Amazon were shown to be particularly vulnerable to collapse.

    “Although these ecosystem transitions have been confirmed only in the Negro river basin (central Amazon), floodplain forests in other parts of the Amazon were shown to be particularly vulnerable to collapse45,64,65.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [64]

    In “Future Changes in Double Stress,” the paper says floodplain forests of the Amazonas, Madeira, and Upper Negro Rivers are particularly affected by simulated hydrologic stress, supporting the geographic point. It does not establish that those forests are particularly vulnerable to collapse: the same section says vegetation shifts depend on local factors and that more research is needed to determine each forest type’s vulnerability. (LLM, conf=0.86)

    Experimental — accuracy not yet measured

  • Other key heterogeneity factors include topography, which determines plant access to groundwater, and seasonal flooding, which increases forest vulnerability to wildfires.

    “Other key heterogeneity factors (Extended Data Fig. 6) include topography, which determines plant access to groundwater64, and seasonal flooding, which increases forest vulnerability to wildfires65.”

    From Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system (2024) · cites this paper as [64]

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Research works printed but not linked: 35

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Authors
Mattos, C. R. C., Hirota, M., Oliveira, R. S., Flores, B. M., Miguez-Macho, G., Pokhrel, Y., & Fan, Y.
Affiliations
  • Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey (US)
  • Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) (BR)
  • Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (BR)
  • CRETUS, Non-Linear Physics Group, Faculty of Physics, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela 15782, Spain
  • Michigan State University (US)
Corresponding author
Mattos, Caio R. C.
ORCID
Venue
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Publisher
National Academy of Sciences
Published
2023-08-07
Volume
120
Issue
33
Pages
e2301255120-e2301255120
ISSN
  • 0027-8424 (ISSN-L)
  • 1091-6490
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2301255120
PMC
PMC10438376
OpenAlex
W4385618075
Cited by
51
References
2
Citations by year
2026: 16 · 2025: 13 · 2024: 16 · 2023: 6
FWCI
5.27
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
Licence
Locations
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed Central (publishedVersion, cc-by-nc-nd)
  • PubMed (publishedVersion)
Funders
  • NSF | GEO | Division of Earth Sciences (825813, 1752729)
  • NSF | GEO | Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (185270)
  • Instituto Serrapilheira (1709-18983)
  • FAPESP-NERC (2019-07773-1)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Ecosystem dynamics and resilience
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Global and Planetary Change › Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Ecology › Plant Ecology and Soil Science
Keywords
flooding stress, drought stress, water table depth, oxygen stress, savanna expansion, land surface hydrology, flooded forest, Neotropical forests, climate change impacts, soil carbon storage, ecosystem transitions
MeSH terms
Climate, Trees, Ecosystem, Droughts, Forests, Grassland

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