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Sea Level Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change·2014·Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
DOI 10.1017/cbo9781107415324.026
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Abstract

Executive Summary This chapter considers changes in global mean sea level, regional sea level, sea level extremes, and waves. Confidence in projections of global mean sea level rise has increased since the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) because of the improved physical understanding of the components of sea level, the improved agreement of process-based models with observations, and the inclusion of ice-sheet dynamical changes. Past Sea Level Change Paleo sea level records from warm periods during the last 3 million years indicate that global mean sea level has exceeded 5 m above present ( very high confidene ) when global mean temperature was up to 2°C warmer than pre-industrial ( medium confidence ) . There is very high confidence that maximum global mean sea level during the last interglacial period (~129 to 116 ka) was, for several thousand years, at least 5 m higher than present and high confidence that it did not exceed 10 m above present, implying substantial contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. This change in sea level occurred in the context of different orbital forcing and with high latitude surface temperature, averaged over several thousand years, at least 2°C warmer than present ( high confidence ) {5.3.4, 5.6.1, 5.6.2,13.2.1} Proxy and instrumental sea level data indicate a transition in the late 19th century to the early 20th century from relatively low mean rates of rise over the previous two millennia to higher rates of rise ( high confidence ).

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  • Average global sea levels are currently higher than at any point within the last ~115,000 years.

    “Average global sea levels are currently higher than at any point within the last ~115,000 years ( 84 )”

    From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]

  • Salt marsh records from both Northern and Southern hemispheres support a transition from relatively low rates of change during the Late Holocene (<1 mm/year) to modern rates of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year from 1993-2010 C.E.

    “The most robust signal captured in salt marsh records from both Northern and Southern hemispheres supports a transition from relatively low rates of change during the Late Holocene (&lt;1 mm/year) to modern rates of 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/year from 1993 -2010 C.E. ( 84 ).”

    From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]

  • Fluctuations in global mean sea level during the last 2000 years have not exceeded ~0.25 m on time scales of a few hundred years (medium confidence).

    “Based on local sea-level records spanning the last 2000 years, there is medium confidence that fluctuations in global mean sea level during this interval have not exceeded ~0.25 m on time scales of a few hundred years.”

    From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]

  • Global mean sea level rose ~2 to 3 m from ~7,000 to 3,000 years ago to near present-day levels.

    “Relative sealevel records indicate that from ~7,000 to 3,000 years ago, global mean sea level rose ~2 to 3 m to near present-day levels ( 84 ).”

    From The Anthropocene is functionally and stratigraphically distinct from the Holocene (2016) · cites this paper as [84]

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Authors
Change, I. P. O. C.
Corresponding author
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Venue
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Published
2014-03-24
Pages
1137-1216
DOI
10.1017/cbo9781107415324.026
OpenAlex
W4254773735
Cited by
342
References
0
Citations by year
2026: 11 · 2025: 19 · 2024: 26 · 2023: 15 · 2022: 38 · 2021: 52 · 2020: 25 · 2019: 32 · 2018: 36 · 2017: 29 · 2016: 25 · 2015: 27 · 2014: 7
FWCI
57.79
Type
book chapter
Language
en
Open access
closed
Licence
www.cambridge.org/core/terms (unspecified, 73 d)
Locations
Cambridge University Press eBooks (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Atmospheric Science › Geology and Paleoclimatology Research
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Earth-Surface Processes › Coastal and Marine Dynamics
  • Physical Sciences › Earth and Planetary Sciences › Oceanography › Geophysics and Gravity Measurements
Keywords
global mean sea level, sea level rise, regional sea level change, extreme sea levels, sea level projections, paleosea level, Last Interglacial, ice sheet mass loss, orbital forcing

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