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Cited by 107Sports Analytics and PerformanceProbability and Statistical ResearchSports Performance and Training

The DOI matches its Crossref record; 11 of the 11 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.

On the Probability of Winning a Football Game

Stern, Hal·1991·The American Statistician
DOI 10.1080/00031305.1991.10475798
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Abstract

Based on the results of the 1981, 1983, and 1984 National Football League seasons, the distribution of the margin of victory over the point spread (defined as the number of points scored by the favorite minus the number of points scored by the underdog minus the point spread) is not significantly different from the normal distribution with mean zero and standard deviation slightly less than fourteen points. The probability that a team favored by p points wins the game can be computed from a table of the standard normal distribution. This result is applied to estimate the probability distribution of the number of games won by a team. A simulation is used to estimate the probability that a team qualifies for the championship playoffs.

Overview

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Registry

Crossref · 10.1080/00031305.1991.10475798

Cites

11 of 11 references verified0 citation errors · 0 not checkable

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Metadata

Authors
Stern, H.
Affiliations
Harvard University (US)
Corresponding author
Stern, Hal
ORCID
Stern, Hal
Venue
The American Statistician
Publisher
Informa UK Limited
Published
1991-08
Volume
45
Issue
3
Pages
179-183
ISSN
  • 0003-1305 (ISSN-L)
  • 1537-2731
DOI
10.1080/00031305.1991.10475798
OpenAlex
W2047377347
Semantic Scholar
c6de3d74feb7cc2879c393bee1d59b5b575db2a0
Cited by
106
References
11
Citations by year
2026: 2 · 2024: 1 · 2023: 5 · 2022: 3 · 2021: 4 · 2020: 7 · 2019: 5 · 2018: 7 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 5 · 2014: 1 · 2013: 2 · 2012: 6
FWCI
2.37
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
closed
Locations
The American Statistician (publishedVersion)
Topics
  • Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
  • Physical Sciences › Mathematics › Statistics and Probability › Probability and Statistical Research
  • Health Sciences › Medicine › Orthopedics and Sports Medicine › Sports Performance and Training
Keywords
football, point spread, margin of victory, National Football League, normal distribution, winning probability, sports statistics

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Data sources

Bibliographic data: Semantic Scholar, OpenAlex, Crossref.

Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).

Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.