The DOI matches its Crossref record; 24 of the 24 references it cites were found in a registry or an index.
Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market
Abstract
The efficiency of the fixed odds betting market for football in England is investigated. It is the efficiency of how market participants utilize available information that is tested. A model of bookmaker behaviour is presented in which the bookmaker maximizes their expected share of the total amount bet. It is found that an expected profit maximizing bookmaker could set market inefficient odds. Several empirical tests using the ordered probit model with data on prices and publicly available information are carried out. Evidence of market inefficiency is identified offering profitable betting opportunities.
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“The seminal findings of Kuypers [13] and Levitt [23], however, imply that sportsbooks may sometimes deliberately propose values that deviate from their estimated median to entice a preponderance of bets on the side that maximizes excess error.”
From A statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting (2023) · cites this paper as [13]
Citations
Cites
EFFICIENT CAPITAL MARKETS: A REVIEW OF THEORY AND EMPIRICAL WORK*
Malkiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00518.x · Cited by 24,478
Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
Fama, E. F. (1970) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.2307/2325486 · Cited by 13,635
Anomalies: Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries
Thaler, R. H., & Ziemba, W. T. (1988) · Journal of Economic Perspectives · doi:10.1257/jep.2.2.161 · Cited by 621
Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors
Ali, M. M. (1977) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260600 · Cited by 379
The Formation of Inflationary Expectations
Figlewski, S., & Wachtel, P. A. (1981) · The Review of Economics and Statistics · doi:10.2307/1924211 · Cited by 247
HORSE RACING: TESTING THE EFFICIENT MARKETS MODEL
Snyder, W. W. (1978) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1978.tb02051.x · Cited by 237
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
GANDAR, J., ZUBER, R., O'BRIEN, T., & RUSSO, B. (1988) · The Journal of Finance · doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1988.tb02617.x · Cited by 181 · cited 6×
“3 £ Gabriel and Marsden (1990) UK horse Semi-strong 3 ?”
BackgroundInfluentialPeel, D. A., & Thomas, D. A. (1988) · Scottish Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1111/j.1467-9485.1988.tb01049.x · Cited by 180
Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Market
Figlewski, S. (1979) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/260740 · Cited by 168
Beating the Spread: Testing the Efficiency of the Gambling Market for National Football League Games
Zuber, R. A., Gandar, J. M., & Bowers, B. D. (1985) · Journal of Political Economy · doi:10.1086/261332 · Cited by 144
Research works printed but not linked: 5
- Cain M., 1990, Greyhound racing: further empirical evidence on market efficiency in a wagering market
- Dobra J. L., 1990, Sportometrics, 215
- 10.2307/2328148 · DOI
- Kuypers T. J., 1996, The beautiful game? An econometric study of why people watch English football
- 1978, Final Report. Cmnd. 7200
Cited by
Sorted by citations
Items 101–101 of 101
Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, G., De Angelis, L., & Singleton, C. (2020) · Social Science Research Network · doi:10.2139/ssrn.3505287 · Cited by 23
Metadata
- Authors
- Kuypers, T.
- Corresponding author
- Kuypers, Tim
- Venue
- Applied Economics
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2000-09
- Volume
- 32
- Issue
- 11
- Pages
- 1353-1363
- ISSN
- 0003-6846 (ISSN-L)
- 1466-4283
- OpenAlex
- W2022909726
- Cited by
- 172
- References
- 24
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 4 · 2024: 3 · 2023: 10 · 2022: 4 · 2021: 11 · 2020: 11 · 2019: 12 · 2018: 8 · 2017: 15 · 2016: 3 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 4 · 2013: 14 · 2012: 12
- FWCI
- 1.72
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Applied Economics (publishedVersion)
- RePEc: Research Papers in Economics (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Economics and Econometrics › Sports Analytics and Performance
- Social Sciences › Economics, Econometrics and Finance › Finance › Financial Markets and Investment Strategies
- Social Sciences › Decision Sciences › Management Science and Operations Research › Forecasting Techniques and Applications
- Keywords
- fixed-odds betting, market efficiency, football betting, publicly available information, arbitrage opportunities, English football
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