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Bias in Cross-Sectional Analyses of Longitudinal Mediation: Partial and Complete Mediation Under an Autoregressive Model

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Maxwell, Scott E., Cole, David A., Mitchell, Melissa A.·2011·Multivariate Behavioral Research

Abstract

Maxwell and Cole (2007) showed that cross-sectional approaches to mediation typically generate substantially biased estimates of longitudinal parameters in the special case of complete mediation. However, their results did not apply to the more typical case of partial mediation. We extend their previous work by showing that substantial bias can also occur with partial mediation. In particular, cross-sectional analyses can imply the existence of a substantial indirect effect even when the true longitudinal indirect effect is zero. Thus, a variable that is found to be a strong mediator in a cross-sectional analysis may not be a mediator at all in a longitudinal analysis. In addition, we show that very different combinations of longitudinal parameter values can lead to essentially identical cross-sectional correlations, raising serious questions about the interpretability of cross-sectional mediation data. More generally, researchers are encouraged to consider a wide variety of possible mediation models beyond simple cross-sectional models, including but not restricted to autoregressive models of change.

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Metadata

Authors
Maxwell, S. E., Cole, D. A., & Mitchell, M. A.
Venue
Multivariate Behavioral Research
Published
2011-09-30
Volume
46
Issue
5
Pages
816-841
ISSN
  • 0027-3171 (ISSN-L)
  • 1532-7906
OpenAlex
W2119963803
Cited by
1,338
References
19
FWCI
16.69
Type
journal article
Language
en
Open access
bronze

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Maxwell, S. E., Cole, D. A., & Mitchell, M. A. (2011). Bias in Cross-Sectional Analyses of Longitudinal Mediation: Partial and Complete Mediation Under an Autoregressive Model. Multivariate Behavioral Research. https://doi.org/10.1080/00273171.2011.606716

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