The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: Investigating the ‘harvesting’ effect and other long-term consequences
Abstract
In August 2003, Western Europe experienced a deadly heat wave. It is estimated that 15,000 people died in France from its direct effects. Applying an indirect estimation technique to the monthly number of deaths by sex, age, and place of residence for the period 1996-2003, we estimate the number of years that would have remained to those who died from the heat wave had they been spared. The paper also evaluates the role of the 'harvesting' effect of the 2003 heat wave in explaining the deficit of deaths recorded in 2004--estimated at 23,000 out of an expected total of 535,000 deaths. The harvesting effect was modest and accounted for fewer than 5,000 of the 'missing' deaths in 2004. The mortality decline in 2004 is thus due mainly to other factors. One hypothesis is that special efforts have been directed towards isolated older people as a consequence of the heat wave.
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This observation may reflect a "harvesting" effect resulting from rapid clinical deterioration among existing cases, as well as reductions in new cancer diagnoses due to interruptions in routine care during the pandemic.
“This observation may reflect a “harvesting” effect51 resulting from rapid clinical deterioration among existing cases, as well as reductions in new cancer diagnoses due to interruptions in routine care during the pandemic.”
From Attributed causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in a south Indian city (2023) · cites this paper as [51]
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Breton, D., Barbiéri, M., d’Albis, H., Mazuy, M., Dutreuilh, C., & Coleman, H. (2019) · Population (English Edition) · doi:10.3917/popu.1804.0623 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on COPD Patient Mortality: A Nationwide Study in France
Poucineau, J., Khlat, M., Lapidus, N., Espagnacq, M., CHOUAID, C., Delory, T., & Cœur, S. L. (2024) · International Journal of Public Health · doi:10.3389/ijph.2024.1606617 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Schünemann, C., Kriesten, T. F., Moderow, U., & Ziemann, A. (2024) · Climate Risk Management · doi:10.1016/j.crm.2024.100615 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Empowering Women in a Climate-Changing World Through Climate-Resilient Energy Access
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Ho, T., & Noymer, A. (2017) · Demographic Research · doi:10.4054/demres.2017.37.45 · Cited by 7 · see citing works
Beuria, R., Sahu, D., Sahu, S. C., Nandi, D., Behera, S., Mohanta, K. L., & Thakur, R. R. (2025) · Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans · doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101577 · Cited by 6 · see citing works
Urban Overheating and Impact on Health: An Introduction
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Mortality in France by département
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A Unified Model of Cohort Mortality for Economic AnalysisPreprint
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Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Croatia
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La population de la France en 2007
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Was there a COVID-19 harvesting effect in Northern Italy?Preprint
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Direct and indirect burden of COVID-19 on mortality in Spain (2020 to 2022)
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Estimating excess migration associated with tropical storms in the USA 1990–2010
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Harvesting Effect and Extreme Temperature-Related Mortality in Italy
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- Authors
- Toulemon, L., & Barbieri, M.
- Affiliations
- Institut national d'études démographiques (FR)
- ORCID
- Toulemon, Laurent
- Venue
- Population Studies
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-03
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 39-53
- ISSN
- 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-4747
- OpenAlex
- W2012092844
- Cited by
- 136
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Population Studies (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archined (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- 2003 European heatwave, heat-related mortality, harvest effects, indirect mortality estimation, excess mortality, older adults
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, France, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Heat Stress Disorders
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