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The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: Investigating the ‘harvesting’ effect and other long-term consequences

Toulemon, Laurent, Barbieri, Magali·2008·Population Studies

DOI 10.1080/00324720701804249

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Abstract

In August 2003, Western Europe experienced a deadly heat wave. It is estimated that 15,000 people died in France from its direct effects. Applying an indirect estimation technique to the monthly number of deaths by sex, age, and place of residence for the period 1996-2003, we estimate the number of years that would have remained to those who died from the heat wave had they been spared. The paper also evaluates the role of the 'harvesting' effect of the 2003 heat wave in explaining the deficit of deaths recorded in 2004--estimated at 23,000 out of an expected total of 535,000 deaths. The harvesting effect was modest and accounted for fewer than 5,000 of the 'missing' deaths in 2004. The mortality decline in 2004 is thus due mainly to other factors. One hypothesis is that special efforts have been directed towards isolated older people as a consequence of the heat wave.

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Authors: Toulemon, L., & Barbieri, M.
Affiliations: Institut national d'études démographiques (FR)
ORCID: Toulemon, Laurent
Venue: Population Studies
Publisher: Informa UK Limited
Published: 2008-03
Volume: 62
Issue: 1
Pages: 39-53
ISSN: 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
1477-4747
DOI: 10.1080/00324720701804249
OpenAlex: W2012092844
Cited by: 136
References: 22
Citations by year: 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 2
FWCI: 3.67
Type: journal article
Language: en
Open access: closed
Locations: Population Studies (publishedVersion)
PubMed (publishedVersion)
Archined (submittedVersion)
Topics: Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
Keywords: 2003 European heatwave, heat-related mortality, harvest effects, indirect mortality estimation, excess mortality, older adults
MeSH terms: Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, France, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Heat Stress Disorders

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The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: Investigating the ‘harvesting’ effect and other long-term consequences

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