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The mortality impact of the August 2003 heat wave in France: Investigating the ‘harvesting’ effect and other long-term consequences
Abstract
In August 2003, Western Europe experienced a deadly heat wave. It is estimated that 15,000 people died in France from its direct effects. Applying an indirect estimation technique to the monthly number of deaths by sex, age, and place of residence for the period 1996-2003, we estimate the number of years that would have remained to those who died from the heat wave had they been spared. The paper also evaluates the role of the 'harvesting' effect of the 2003 heat wave in explaining the deficit of deaths recorded in 2004--estimated at 23,000 out of an expected total of 535,000 deaths. The harvesting effect was modest and accounted for fewer than 5,000 of the 'missing' deaths in 2004. The mortality decline in 2004 is thus due mainly to other factors. One hypothesis is that special efforts have been directed towards isolated older people as a consequence of the heat wave.
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“This observation may reflect a “harvesting” effect51 resulting from rapid clinical deterioration among existing cases, as well as reductions in new cancer diagnoses due to interruptions in routine care during the pandemic.”
From Attributed causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in a south Indian city (2023) · cites this paper as [51]
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The impact of heat waves on mortality in 9 European cities: results from the EuroHEAT project
D’Ippoliti, D., Michelozzi, P., Marino, C., de'Donato, F. K., Menne, B., Katsouyanni, K., Kirchmayer, U., Analitis, A., Medina-Ramón, M., Páldy, A., et al. (2010) · Environmental Health · doi:10.1186/1476-069x-9-37 · Cited by 718
Heat wave impact on morbidity and mortality in the elderly population: a review of recent studies
Oudin Åström, D., Bertil, F., & Joacim, R. (2011) · Maturitas · doi:10.1016/j.maturitas.2011.03.008 · Cited by 547
Andrasfay, T., & Goldman, N. (2021) · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · doi:10.1073/pnas.2014746118 · Cited by 490
Health effects of hot weather: from awareness of risk factors to effective health protection
Hajat, S., O’Connor, M., & Kosatsky, T. (2010) · The Lancet · doi:10.1016/s0140-6736(09)61711-6 · Cited by 487
The Excess Heat Factor: A Metric for Heatwave Intensity and Its Use in Classifying Heatwave Severity
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Metadata
- Authors
- Toulemon, L., & Barbieri, M.
- Affiliations
- Institut national d'études démographiques (FR)
- ORCID
- Toulemon, Laurent
- Venue
- Population Studies
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2008-03
- Volume
- 62
- Issue
- 1
- Pages
- 39-53
- ISSN
- 0032-4728 (ISSN-L)
- 1477-4747
- OpenAlex
- W2012092844
- Cited by
- 136
- References
- 22
- Citations by year
- 2026: 3 · 2025: 10 · 2024: 12 · 2023: 12 · 2022: 18 · 2021: 13 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 7 · 2018: 6 · 2017: 5 · 2016: 4 · 2015: 7 · 2014: 6 · 2013: 7 · 2012: 2
- FWCI
- 3.67
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Population Studies (publishedVersion)
- PubMed (publishedVersion)
- Archined (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Physical Sciences › Environmental Science › Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis › Climate Change and Health Impacts
- Social Sciences › Demography › Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
- Health Sciences › Medicine › Epidemiology › Healthcare Systems and Public Health
- Keywords
- 2003 European heatwave, heat-related mortality, harvest effects, indirect mortality estimation, excess mortality, older adults
- MeSH terms
- Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Child, Child, Preschool, Female, France, Hot Temperature, Humans, Infant, Infant, Newborn, Life Expectancy, Male, Middle Aged, Models, Statistical, Heat Stress Disorders
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