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The Coming Illiberal Order
Abstract
The new international order will be marked by the ascendancy of illiberal states and value systems, and a diminishment of American influence.
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“The occupation of Iraq in 2003, and the United States' military involvement in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the September 11 (9/11) attacks, epitomized the excessive self-confidence of American decision makers in promoting liberal democratic order. 4”
From Turkish Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order (2019) · cites this paper as [4]
Citations
Cited by
Casarões, G., & Farias, D. B. L. (2021) · Cambridge Review of International Affairs · doi:10.1080/09557571.2021.1981248 · Cited by 148
“His illiberal platform is situated in a wave of right-wing authoritarian populists which are seen as a threat to liberal norms and values (Boyle 2016; Ikenberry 2018; Lake et al. 2021).”
BackgroundConservative soft power: liberal soft power bias and the ‘hidden’ attraction of Russia
Keating, V. C., & Kaczmarska, K. (2017) · Journal of International Relations and Development · doi:10.1057/s41268-017-0100-6 · Cited by 129
Contestation in a World of Liberal Orders
Goddard, S. E., Krebs, R. R., Kreuder‐Sonnen, C., & Rittberger, B. (2024) · Global Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isagsq/ksae026 · Cited by 114
A Flawed Framework: Why the Liberal International Order Concept Is Misguided
Glaser, C. L. (2019) · International Security · doi:10.1162/isec_a_00343 · Cited by 84
Introduction to special issue: The study of populism in international relations
Löfflmann, G. (2022) · The British Journal of Politics and International Relations · doi:10.1177/13691481221103116 · Cited by 76
“…liberal international order and the functioning of key institutions and organisations, from continued EU integration to the survival of NATO, potentially signalling a return of great power politics in the 21st century marked by competing spheres of influence (Boyle, 2016; Schrank, 2017).”
BackgroundLerch, J. C., Frank, D. J., & Schofer, E. (2023) · American Sociological Review · doi:10.1177/00031224231214000 · Cited by 75
“The nineteenth-century Humboldt model enshrined these ideals (Altbach 2001) and carried them from Prussia to the United States and beyond (Hof-stadter 1961; Metzger 1961).”
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Bull, B., & Rosales, A. (2020) · European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies | Revista Europea de Estudios Latinoamericanos y del Caribe · doi:10.32992/erlacs.10587 · Cited by 79
“This is not just expressed in the increased competition from illiberal states (principally China and Russia) but also the withdrawal of the United States from international organizations and responsibilities, and its frequent direct violations of the very norms the system defends (Boyle 2016).”
BackgroundStengel, F. A. (2020) · University of Michigan Press eBooks · doi:10.3998/mpub.10154836 · Cited by 58
The LIO’s growing democracy gap: an endogenous source of polity contestation
Kreuder‐Sonnen, C., & Rittberger, B. (2022) · Journal of International Relations and Development · doi:10.1057/s41268-022-00275-x · Cited by 55
“…by approaches centring on factors arguably exogenous to the LIO, such as global power shifts (esp. the rise of China and US hegemonic decline) (e.g. Weiss and Wallace 2021; Boyle 2016), domestic economic shocks and distributional inequalities (Bearce and Jolliff Scott 2019; Bis‑ bee et al.”
BackgroundTurkish Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order
OĞUZLU, H. T. (2019) · All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace · doi:10.20991/allazimuth.464076 · Cited by 49
The Liberal International Ordering of crisis
Peoples, C. (2022) · International Relations · doi:10.1177/00471178221128187 · Cited by 38
Global Trends and Forecasts of the 21st Century
Grinin, L. E., Леонидович, Г. А., & Korotayev, A. (2021) · World Futures · doi:10.1080/02604027.2021.1949939 · Cited by 42
“They account for approximately 60% of all expenditure, and since the United States has a large budget deficit, this equals almost three quarters of real budget revenues.”
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Kanet, R. E. (2017) · International Politics · doi:10.1057/s41311-017-0075-3 · Cited by 32
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Petruccelli, D. (2020) · Journal of world history · doi:10.1353/jwh.2020.0004 · Cited by 33
Lawreniuk, S. (2019) · Annals of the American Association of Geographers · doi:10.1080/24694452.2019.1670040 · Cited by 30
“Here, Cambodia’s “descent into outright dictatorship” (“Descent into Outright Dictatorship” 2017) fits a wider trend within the geopolitical ascendance of the “illiberal order” (Boyle 2016, 35).”
BackgroundInequality, Nationalism and Electoral Politics in Indonesia
Warburton, E. A. (2018) · Southeast Asian affairs · doi:10.1355/aa18-1h · Cited by 25
Economic nationalism for political legitimacy in Indonesia
Wicaksana, I. G. W. (2019) · Journal of International Relations and Development · doi:10.1057/s41268-019-00182-8 · Cited by 23
The Development of the Polish Party System: a Perspective of the Parliamentary Elections Results
Jaskiernia, J. (2017) · Polish Political Science Yearbook · doi:10.15804/ppsy2017214 · Cited by 17
“Boyle, M.J. (2016). “The Coming Illiberal Order”. Survival , 58(2), pp. 35 – 66. Crawford, C. (October 26, 2015). “Who are Poland’s victorious Law and Justice party, and what do they want”. The Telegraph. Cześnik, M. (2014). “In the Shadow of the Smolensk Catastrophe—The 2010 Presidential Election in Poland”.”
BackgroundInfluentialMetamorphoses of Political Neoliberalism
Gromyko, A. A. (2020) · Contemporary Europe · doi:10.15211/soveurope220200619 · Cited by 16
Introduction: Analyzing the Nexus Between Populism and International Relations
Stengel, F. A., MacDonald, D. B., & Nabers, D. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04621-7_1 · Cited by 19
The Shape of ‘Rising Powers’ to Come? The Antinomies of Growth and Neoliberal Development in Turkey
Tansel, C. B. (2019) · New Political Economy · doi:10.1080/13563467.2019.1584173 · Cited by 14
“…the publications discussed throughout the article, readers can refer to the following texts for other interventions that operate within the parameters of the ‘rising powers’ debate: Cornell et al. (2012), Bank and Karadag (2013), Tanrısever (2015), Şatana (2016), Boyle (2016), Pehlivantürk (2017).”
BackgroundIdeology and influence in the debate over Russian election interference
Keating, V. C., & Schmitt, O. (2021) · International Politics · doi:10.1057/s41311-020-00270-4 · Cited by 12
“…including Trump himself, that feed into how these elites and their supporters perceive the threat of Russian interference.6 Russian conservative values therefore have receptive audiences for a message that, in recent times, has been increasing in popularity (Hawkins 2016; Pabst 2016; Boyle 2016).”
BackgroundRoutledge Handbook of Chinese and Eurasian International Relations
Sahakyan, M. D. (2024) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781003439110 · Cited by 8
Pataccini, L., & Malikov, N. (2020) · Polity · doi:10.1086/708184 · Cited by 7
Contesting Greek Gas Policy: Geopolitical, Energy and Climate Considerations
Proedrou, F. (2019) · The International Spectator · doi:10.1080/03932729.2019.1576421 · Cited by 7
“States hence are implicated in an intriguing web of interlinked issues and contrasting interests, which may pit them against other countries, or place them in the uneasy position of having to choose sides in an unfolding battle between different partners (Boyle 2016).”
BackgroundProedrou, F. (2018) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2018.1470743 · Cited by 7
World Ordering from the Margins: An Introduction
Rinck, P., Tripathi, S., Unrau, C., & Quack, S. (2024) · Global Studies Quarterly · doi:10.1093/isagsq/ksae076 · Cited by 8
The fall and rise of sovereignty
Taki, K. E. (2024) · The British Journal of Politics and International Relations · doi:10.1177/13691481241284220 · Cited by 5
“Some argue that the LIO is going through a crisis or that it has failed (Boyle, 2016; Buruma, 2016; Mearsheimer, 2018, 2019; Speck, 2016).”
(2019) · Verlag Barbara Budrich eBooks · doi:10.3224/84742221 · Cited by 7
Weaponizing Culture: The Role of Illiberal Cultural Policy in Slovenia’s Democratic Backsliding
Čufar, K., & Hawlina, H. (2025) · Politics and Governance · doi:10.17645/pag.9547 · Cited by 5
“The term illiberal democracy is widely used both in political (Boyle, 2016; Sata & Karolewski, 2023) and academic discourse (Kim, 2023; Wagrandl, 2021; Zakaria, 1997) to describe the transition from constrained liberal democracy to unrestrained but formally democratic governance.”
Erspamer, C., Torre, F. D., Massini, G., et al. (2021) · Technological Forecasting and Social Change · doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121351 · Cited by 5
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“…today, human rights violations are on the increase, economic decline and uneven growth are widespread, democracy and freedom are in retreat, and rival powers to the West – most notably Russia and China – have become more powerful and aggressive (Acharya 2014; Boyle 2016; Ikenberry 2018).”
Background‘An expensive commodity’? The impact of hope on US foreign policy during the ‘unipolar moment’
Hehir, A. (2023) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/13540661221143941 · Cited by 4
“…power’s inevitable failure to accept the need for restraint – have at times additionally noted the role played by related ideational issues derived from particular tenets of liberalism and the US exceptionalism (Acharya, 2014; Boyle, 2016; Kagan, 2017; Layne, 2012; Restad, 2014; Walt, 2016).”
BackgroundArès, M., & Boulanger, É. (2019) · Open Journal of Political Science · doi:10.4236/ojps.2020.101006 · Cited by 3
“China’s trade policies can be linked to non-liberal values or principles (Boyle, 2016), but the fact remains that we do not have a clash between two systems, one democratic and the other authoritarian, but a struggle over the rules of interconnection and interdependence.”
BackgroundIsaksson, E. (2025) · Cambridge Review of International Affairs · doi:10.1080/09557571.2025.2477797 · Cited by 3
“…project that is justly defended by some and illegitimately challenged by others (Lake, Martin, and Risse 2021), sometimes with the assumption that the alternative is an ‘ illiberal ’ order (Boyle 2016) or one that will simply emerge because of the balance of power between states (Mearsheimer 2019).”
Huijzer, M. J. (2021) · Krisis | Journal for Contemporary Philosophy · doi:10.21827/krisis.41.1.37169 · Cited by 2
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Zięba, R. (2023) · Contributions to political science · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-16419-4_5 · Cited by 2
Vidal, L. L. I. (2019) · Norm research in international relations · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-33238-9_4 · Cited by 1
Sheikh, F., & Thomas, O. D. (2025) · European Journal of International Relations · doi:10.1177/13540661251338216 · Cited by 1
“Liberal internationalists acknowledge many of the causes for the crisis mentioned above, such as US decline and rising authoritarian regimes (Boyle, 2016; De Graaff and Van Apeldoorn, 2018; Ikenberry, 2018, 2020); nascent imperialism and growing economic inequality (Duncomes and Dunne, 2018;…”
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Leoni, Z. (2021) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-54742-4_4 · Cited by 1
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Pomes, E. J., & Coicaud, J. (2021) · Polish Political Science Yearbook · doi:10.15804/ppsy202104 · Cited by 1
Return of History: Outgrowth Amidst Erosion of the US-Led Liberal Order
Groitl, G. (2023) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-18659-2_7 · Cited by 1
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Demir, C. K. (2024) · Journal of Southeast European and Black Sea Studies · doi:10.1080/14683857.2024.2432719 · Cited by 3
“Instances such as NATO’s military intervention in Libya, the invasion of some regions of Ukraine and the subsequent war, and the widespread foreign interference in the Syrian Civil War illustrate these new trends in foreign policy (Boyle 2016).”
Swanson, D. M. (2023) · Springer international handbooks of education · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-24420-9_43 · Cited by 1
Stengel, F. A. (2023) · SocArXiv (OSF Preprints) · doi:10.31235/osf.io/ty73d · Cited by 1
Changing Challenges and Threats for Euro-Atlantic Security in the 21st Century
Zięba, R. (2018) · Global power shift · doi:10.1007/978-3-319-79105-0_3
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Zięba, R. (2019) · Springer eBooks · doi:10.1007/978-3-030-30697-7_2
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Franzkowiak, S. (2020) · Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft mbH & Co. KG eBooks · doi:10.5771/9783748909767-11
Hodzi, O. (2017) · Routledge eBooks · doi:10.4324/9781315529370-13
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Suter, C., Fish, S., Seeberg, M., Dalaibuyan, B., Odonkhuu, M., Fox, E., Heafner, A., Uvsh, D., Sambuu, B., Roeck, M. D., et al. (2021) · The Independent Research Institute of Mongolia and The World Society Foundation eBooks · doi:10.54520/i18070911
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Hehir, A. (2024) · New perspectives on South-East Europe · doi:10.1007/978-3-031-63374-4_7
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Metadata
- Authors
- Boyle, M. J.
- Corresponding author
- Boyle, Michael J.
- ORCID
- Boyle, Michael J.
- Venue
- Survival
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Published
- 2016-03-03
- Volume
- 58
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 35-66
- ISSN
- 0039-6338 (ISSN-L)
- 1468-2699
- OpenAlex
- W2297798669
- Cited by
- 88
- References
- 0
- Citations by year
- 2026: 2 · 2025: 6 · 2024: 28 · 2023: 9 · 2022: 5 · 2021: 9 · 2020: 8 · 2019: 10 · 2018: 4 · 2017: 6
- FWCI
- 33.73
- Type
- journal article
- Language
- en
- Open access
- closed
- Locations
- Survival (publishedVersion)
- Rutgers University Community Repository (Rutgers University) (submittedVersion)
- Topics
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Social Sciences › Political Science and International Relations › Globalization and political ideologies
- Social Sciences › Sociology and Political Science › Political Conflict and Governance
- Keywords
- illiberalism, international order, United States influence, great power politics, value systems, liberal international order, geopolitics
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Registry, retraction, Cites and statistics results are computed, not judged, with one exception: a printed reference that no index lists is read once by a model before it counts as a citation error. Claims are extracted by a model and kept only when their quote appears verbatim in the text; each cited source is then checked, with a model’s help, for whether it says what the claim relies on. Those verdicts can be wrong — read the claim’s quote and the cited source before relying on one.
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Contains information from the Semantic Scholar Academic Graph Datasets, made available under the ODC Attribution License (ODC-BY 1.0).
Semantic Scholar’s data is described in: Kinney, R., et al. (2023). The Semantic Scholar Open Data Platform. arXiv:2301.10140.